297
FXUS65 KPUB 222310
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
510 PM MDT WED OCT 22 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS, THUNDERSTORMS, AND HIGH ELEVATION
SNOW THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
- POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONGER STORMS THURSDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER.
- DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH INCREASING
WINDS AHEAD OF OUR NEXT INCOMING WEATHER SYSTEM FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 236 PM MDT WED OCT 22 2025
CURRENT WATER VAPOR AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES MODEST WEST TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION, AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS BUILDING
ACROSS THE ROCKIES AHEAD OF AN UPPER LOW STARTING TO MOVE ONSHORE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO
THE 60S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS THE PLAINS, WITH CURRENT READINGS IN THE
50S AND 60S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN, WITH INCREASING MID AND HIGH
LEVEL MOISTURE SPREADING ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION INTO SOUTHERN
COLORADO AT THIS TIME.
LATEST OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE MODEL DATA ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT OF
SAID SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT
BASIN TONIGHT AND INTO THE FOUR CORNER REGION THROUGH THE DAY ON
THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING A SLOW INCREASE IN AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND
UVV INTO THE REGION, WITHIN INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE SOUTH-
WEST OROGRAPHIC FLOW WILL BRING INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS TO THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE OVERNIGHT, WITH THE BEST COVERAGE EXPECTED ACROSS
THE EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS. SNOW LEVELS TO REMAIN HIGH (AOA 10K FT)
WITH ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS CONFINED TO THE HIGHER PEAKS, WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS REMAINING AT TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS IN THE 30S AND 40S
ACROSS THE PLAINS, AND IN THE 20S AND 30S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE HIGH MOUNTAIN
VALLEYS INTO THE I-25 CORRIDOR THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY, WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONGER STORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER, WHERE
STEEP LAPSE RATES AND 40-50KTS OF SHEAR WILL BE IN PLACE. UNCERTAINTY
IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE STORMS WILL BE HOW MUCH INSTABILITY CAN
BE DEVELOPED, WITH HREF DATA INDICATING MEAN MUCAPE OF 400-900 J/KG
SOUTH OF THE HIGHWAY 50 CORRIDOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON. AT ANY RATE,
SPC DOES HAVE A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE SAN LUIS VALLEY AND INTO THE SOUTHERN I-25
CORRIDOR TOMORROW. TEMPERATURES TOMORROW LOOK TO BE SLIGHTLY COOLER
THAN TODAY MAINLY IN THE 60S ACROSS THE PLAINS, WITH 40S AND 50S
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN, WITH EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS
AND STORMS.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 256 AM MDT WED OCT 22 2025
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...
MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS A SLIGHTLY TIGHTER CLOSED LOW WITH A
BIT MORE SOUTHERN TRACK, WHICH BRINGS THE SYSTEM RIGHT OVERHEAD
THROUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY. THIS WILL INCREASE OUR CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS IT
APPROACHES, BUT SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA MAY END
UP BEING IN THE DRY SLOT BY THE DAYTIME HOURS OF THE FRIDAY.
CURRENT FORECAST POINTS TOWARDS AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY
50 HAVING BEST CHANCES FOR SEEING WRAP AROUND PRECIP ON FRIDAY
AS THE LOW PUSHES SOUTHEAST, WITH MOST AREAS LOOKING DRY BY
FRIDAY EVENING. WE'LL BE COOLER ON FRIDAY BEHIND THE DEPARTING
SYSTEM, WITH HIGHS LOOKING TO STAY IN THE 50S FOR MOUNTAIN
VALLEYS AND THE PIKES PEAK REGION, AND LOW 60S ELSEWHERE ON THE
PLAINS.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY..
THIS WEEKEND WILL BE TRANSITIONAL AS THE DEPARTING LOW EXITS TO OUR
SOUTHEAST, AND AN INCOMING TROUGH APPROACHES FROM OUR NORTHWEST.
SATURDAY WILL BRING NEAR NORMAL DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 60S AND LOW
70S, CLEAR SKIES, DRY WEATHER, AND BREEZY NORTH WINDS. BY SUNDAY OUR
WINDS BEGIN TO INCREASE AS THE TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES, BUT AT THIS
TIME THEY LOOK TO REMAIN FAIRLY WELL BEHAVED BY COLORADO STANDARDS,
AT LEAST ON THE PLAINS. GUSTS LOOK TO STAY BELOW 30 MPH OR SO AT THE
MOST, THOUGH THAT NUMBER COULD CERTAINLY CHANGE DEPENDING ON
THE TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF THE INCOMING TROUGH. INCREASING
WESTERLY WINDS WILL MEAN INCREASING DOWNSLOPING, WHICH WILL IN
TURN MEAN SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR OUR SUNDAY. CHANCES
FOR SOME SNOW WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE FOR OUR CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
LATE SUNDAY AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES, THOUGH ACCUMULATIONS LOOK
TO BE LIGHT AND FOCUSED ON OUR HIGHEST PEAKS.
MONDAY ONWARDS..
THE MOST FAVORABLE JET SUPPORT FOR POTENTIAL HIGH WINDS LINES UP
WITH THE TROUGH PASSAGE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING AT THIS TIME, WITH
THE TROUGH MOVING PAST US THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE DAY. IF THIS
FORECAST PANS OUT, THAT WOULD LEAVE US WITH COOLER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. AT THIS TIME,
ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ALONG OUR NORTHERNMOST AREAS
ARE EXPECTED FOR MONDAY, WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR DRIER
CONDITIONS FOR TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 508 PM MDT WED OCT 22 2025
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER OVERNIGHT AS A SYSTEM
MOVES IN. SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS 10-15 KTS AT KCOS AND
KPUB WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE AND SHIFT AROUND FROM THE EAST TO
NORTHEAST. KALS WILL SEE CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW OVERNIGHT WITH
LOWERING VFR CIGS INTO THURSDAY. A ROUND OF -SHRA/-TSRA WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT ALL THREE TERMINALS THURSDAY AFTERNOON THOUGH RAIN
SHOULD BE BRIEF AND CONDITIONS REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE END OF THE
TAF PERIOD. -KT
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...EHR
AVIATION...KT
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