279
FXUS65 KPUB 230905
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
305 AM MDT THU OCT 23 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY, SOME COULD BE ON THE STRONGER
SIDE.
- COOLER TOMORROW.
- EXTENDED TRENDING DRIER AND WARMER.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 303 AM MDT THU OCT 23 2025
|MAIM CONCERN FOR TODAY IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS.
UPPER SUB-TROPICAL LOW OVER THE LAS VEGAS REGION THIS MORNING IS
FORECAST TO MOVE EAST AND BE OVER THE 4 CORNERS REGION BY THIS
EVENING. AS LOW MOVES EAST, SHEAR ALOFT WILL INCREASE AND LAPSE
RATES WILL BECOME MORE UNSTABLE AS COOLER AIR MOVES IN ALOFT.
ALTHOUGH DEWPTS ARE SO-SO, ENOUGH INSTABILITY SHOULD BE IN PLACE FOR
A FEW STRONG STORMS, WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF STRONGER STORMS ALONG
THE COLORADO/NEW MEXICO BORDER. MAIN THREATS FROM THE STORMS WILL BE
HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS, AND WE COULD SEE A FEW STORMS REACH MARGINAL
SEVERE LIMITS. FURTHER NORTH, CAPE WILL BE LESS BUT ENOUGH
INSTABILITY SHOULD BE IN PLACE FOR OCCASIONAL RUMBLES OF THUNDER AND
POSSIBLY SOME SMALL HAIL.
FOR THE INTERIOR MTNS, SNOW WILL BE LIKELY, ALTHOUGH ANY
ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL OCCUR ABOVE 10K AS THIS SYSTEM IS OVERALL
RATHER WARM. DUE TO ITS SUBTROPICAL ORIGINS. TOTAL ACCUMS LATER
TODAY THROUGH TOMORROW WILL BE 1-3" WITH SOME LOCALIZED 5" AMOUNTS
OVER THE HIGHEST PEAKS OF THE CENTRAL MTNS. HEAVIEST SNOW WILL
LIKELY OCCUR TONIGHT. MTN PASSES TONIGHT (ESPECIALLY FROM US50
NORTHWARD) WILL LIKELY SEE SOME SNOW ON THE GROUND.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES, ANOTHER VERY MILD DAY IS ANTICIPATE AS TEMPS
ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL RANGE FROM THE U60S TO M70S. WITH 60-65 IN
THE VALLEYS. MIN TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE L40S PLAINS, AOA 30F
IN THE VALLEYS AND 20S MTNS.
IT WILL BE A BIT BREEZY IN PLACES THIS AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY FAR
EASTERN PLAINS AND SOUTHERN SAN LUIS VALLEY (20-30 MPH).
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 303 AM MDT THU OCT 23 2025
OVERALL, IT APPEARS GUIDANCE IS TRENDING A BIT WARMER IN THE
EXTENDED AS THE JET IS NOW LIKELY TO REMAIN MAINLY TO OUR NORTH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. WE WILL SEE SOME INCURSIONS OF COOLER AIR INTO OUR
REGION, BUT THE BRUNT OF THE COLDEST AIR WILL LIKELY REMAIN TO THE
NORTH OF OUR REGION.
FOR FRIDAY, UPPER LOW WILL BE OVER OUR REGION DURING THE DAY SO
INSTABILITY SHOWERS, WITH SOME THUNDER LIKELY, WILL OCCUR OVER THE
REGION. MOISTURE IS LIMITED SO ACCUMS WILL LIKELY LIGHT, WITH THE S
MTNS LIKELY SEEING THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP.
SATURDAY, WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER REGION AND EXPECT A VERY
MICE DAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND SEASONABLE TEMPS.
SUNDAY, STRONG ZONAL JET PUSHES INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL BRING
SOME SHOWERS TO THE CENTRAL MTNS WHILE THE PLAINS SHOULD REMAIN DRY.
A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL LIKELY MOVE DOWN THE PLAINS BUT HAVE
LITTLE IMPACT ON THE WEATHER OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.
MONDAY, MAIN JET SLOWLY LIFT NORTH OF THE REGION, SOME LIGHT SHOWERS
POSSIBLE CENTRAL MTNS. TEMPS MAY COOL A FEW DEGREES AS COMPARED TO
SATURDAYS MAX TEMPS.
MIDWEEK TIME FRAME...
ALTHOUGH JET CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHWARD, A MODEST CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BUILD OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL KEEP
WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. THIS SYSTEM APPEARS
QUITE DRY AS MID-LEVEL RH CHARTS ARE IN THE 20-30% RANGE, SO EXPECT
IT TO BE DRY AND AND GENERALLY SEASONABLE, ALTHOUGH TEMPS MAY COOL
OFF A BIT AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES. \/HODANISH
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1123 PM MDT WED OCT 22 2025
LOWERING VFR CIGS CAN BE EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS A
SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE STATE. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS TONIGHT WILL
GRADUALLY THICKEN WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASING AGAIN THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. SOME PASSING SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE TOWARDS DAWN AT
KALS, WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REDEVELOPING DURING THE
AFTERNOON FOR ALL THREE TERMINALS. KALS WILL HAVE THE BEST
CHANCE FOR -TSRA DEVELOPMENT AND WILL CARRY THIS IN A PROB30
GROUP THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. KCOS AND
KPUB MAY NOT ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR THUNDER, HOWEVER A PROB30
FOR -SHRA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING LOOKS
LIKELY. WINDS WILL SHIFT AROUND FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT
ALL THREE TERMINALS DURING THE EVENING WITH THE PASSAGE OF
SHOWERS. -KT
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...KT
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