743
FXUS65 KPUB 082346
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
446 PM MST SAT NOV 8 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- COOL BUT DRY FOR SUNDAY, WITH TEMPERATURES ABOUT 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL FOR THE EASTERN PLAINS.
- DRY CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY.
- APPROACHING PACIFIC TROUGH WILL BRING INCREASED PRECIPITATION
CHANCES FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN BEGINNING FRIDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 200 PM MST SAT NOV 8 2025
CURRENTLY...BEAUTIFUL DAY ACROSS THE STATE WITH BRISK NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT IN PLACE AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. A DISTURBANCE LOCATED OVER THE
CENTRAL US WAS DROPPING TO THE SOUTHEAST. AS OF 1 PM TEMPS HAD
WARMED INTO THE 50S FOR MOST LOCATIONS, AND AROUND 60F FOR THE FAR
EASTERN PLAINS.
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...THE UPPER DISTURBANCE TO THE EAST OF CO HAS
KEPT BRISK NORTHERLY WINDS IN PLACE ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS
TODAY, BUT AS THIS FEATURE CONTINUES DROPPING TO THE SOUTHEAST AND
AWAY FROM THE STATE, WINDS WILL BE DIMINISHING THROUGH THE EVENING.
MEANWHILE, WITH AN UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFYING OVER THE WESTERN US, THIS
HAS OPENED THE DOOR FOR COLDER AIR ALOFT TO DROP OUT OF THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES INTO CO. THIS WILL MEAN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM, WITH A CHILLY NIGHT TONIGHT AND A COOL SUNDAY. PLAN ON
OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT IN THE 10 TO 20 DEGREE RANGE FOR THE HIGH
VALLEYS, AND IN THE 20S FOR THE PLAINS. FOR TOMORROW, EXPECT A SUNNY
BUT COOL DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS, AND ABOUT
10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE PLAINS WITH MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.
MOORE
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 202 AM MST SAT NOV 8 2025
SUNDAY NIGHT - THURSDAY: FOR MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD,
QUIET WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED TO PREVAIL FOR SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO. THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE FROM
SUNDAY WILL TRANSITION TO RIDGING MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. GIVEN
THE INCREASING SUBSIDENCE WITH THE RIDGING, AND OVERALL LACK OF
ANY MAJOR FORCING, DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AREAWIDE SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. A FEW WEAK WAVES/VORT MAXES MAY DRIFT
OVER THE REGION MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY, BUT ANY INFLUENCE FROM
THESE IS ANTICIPATED TO MINIMAL, WITH A BRIEF UPTICK IN CLOUD
COVER AT MOST FROM THEM. OTHERWISE, RELATIVELY LIGHTS WINDS
AROUND AND LESS THAN 10-15 MPH, WITH POCKETS OF MID TO HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS, IS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS PERIOD. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES, A QUICK WARMUP IS ANTICIPATED, WITH TEMPERATURES
RETURNING BACK TO ABOVE SEASONAL VALUES FOR MUCH OF SOUTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO.
FRIDAY: FOR THE END OF THE WEEK, ACTIVE WEATHER MAY START TO MAKE A
RETURN TO PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO AS A
PATTERN CHANGE BEGINS TO MATERIALIZE. SYNOPTICALLY, TROUGHING IS
ANTICIPATED TO START DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WESTERN US AND MAKE A
PUSH TOWARDS THE COLORADO AREA DURING THIS PERIOD. CONFIDENCE ON
THIS IS MEDIUM (~50%) AT THIS TIME, AS ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT THE TROUGHING DEVELOPING, THOUGH HAVE
DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND ULTIMATE STRENGTH. WITH THAT ALL SAID,
WITH TROUGHING IN PLACE, PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL START TO
INCREASE, PARTICULARLY FOR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AND
PRIMARILY ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN. ELSEWHERE THOUGH, DRY CONDITIONS
ARE STILL EXPECTED. BEYOND ALL OF THAT, WINDS WILL START TO BECOME
BREEZIER AND CLOUDS WILL START TO INCREASE AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES.
LOOKING AT TEMPERATURES, THE WARM TREND CONTINUES AHEAD OF THE MAIN
TROUGHING.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 442 PM MST SAT NOV 8 2025
VFR AT ALL TAF SITES THE NEXT 24 HRS. AT KCOS, WEAK FRONT THIS
EVENING WILL TURN WINDS INITIALLY NELY, THEN DIRECTION TRENDS
MORE NLY AFTER 03Z. AT KPUB, WEAK FRONT WILL TURN WINDS WEAK
NLY FOR A PERIOD THIS EVENING, THEN LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT
INTO SUN MORNING. WINDS AT BOTH KCOS AND KPUB WILL THEN SWING
AROUND TO LIGHT SE UPSLOPE AFTER 18Z SUN. AT KALS, WINDS WILL BE
GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE THE NEXT 24 HRS.
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...SIMCOE
AVIATION...MOORE
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