858
FXUS65 KPUB 090914
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
214 AM MST SUN NOV 9 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR TODAY, WITH
BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS ON OUR EASTERN PLAINS.
- DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS PERSIST MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AREAWIDE.
- UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS A PATTERN
CHANGE TAKES PLACE, THOUGH CONFIDENCE REMAINS MEDIUM (~50%) ON
THIS OVERALL.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 212 AM MST SUN NOV 9 2025
CURRENTLY..
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LOW DIVING SOUTH INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION, WITH A BROAD UPPER TROUGH DRAGGING COLD AIR INTO OUR
REGION. WE REMAIN ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS TROUGH, ALLOWING
FOR NORTHERLY WINDS AND SOME MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER. TEMPERATURES
HAVE FALLEN INTO THE LOW 20S OVER MUCH OF OUR PLAINS AND OUR
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS, WITH A FEW 30S OVER OUR FAR EASTERN PLAINS AS OF 2
AM. DEW POINTS ARE IN THE TEENS. WINDS ARE MAINLY NORTHERLY, THOUGH
GUSTS HAVE DROPPED BACK TO AROUND 15 MPH AT BOTH SPRINGFIELD AND
KFLY IN EL PASO COUNTY THIS HOUR.
TODAY AND TONIGHT..
BRISK NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE, ESPECIALLY ON OUR
FAR EASTERN PLAINS, AS TROUGHING CONTINUES TO DEEPEN TO OUR EAST.
TODAY WILL BE AROUND 5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR MOST
LOCATIONS, AND THE COLDEST DAY OF THE NEXT SEVERAL. HIGHS LOOK TO
STAY IN THE MID 40S OVER THE PIKES PEAK REGION, WITH UPPER 40S TO
MID 50S OVER OUR MOUNTAIN VALLEYS AND THE REST OF THE PLAINS. PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED, AS UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUD COVER
WILL LIKELY MOVE OVER THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BE FAIRLY SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT, AND NEAR NORMAL TO
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR SOME LOCATIONS. LOWS LOOK TO DIP
DOWN INTO THE 20S FOR MOST OF THE PLAINS, WITH SOME TEENS POSSIBLE
OVER THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS, AND TEENS LIKELY FOR THE SAN LUIS
VALLEY AS WELL.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 212 AM MST SUN NOV 9 2025
MONDAY: FOR THE START OF THE WEEK, QUIET WEATHER PERSIST FOR SOUTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO. RIDGING WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS
THE REGION, BRINGING INCREASED SUBSIDENCE AND WEAKER FLOW. WITH THIS
PATTERN IN PLACE, DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE AREA.
OTHERWISE, RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS AROUND AND LESS THAN 10 MPH AND
OCCASIONAL POCKETS OF MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS IS ANTICIPATED.
LOOKING AT TEMPERATURES, A QUICK WARMUP IS EXPECTED, WITH MUCH OF
THE AREA WARMING BACK TO ABOVE SEASONAL VALUES FOR MID NOVEMBER.
MONDAY NIGHT - THURSDAY: FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK, QUIET
WEATHER CONTINUES FOR SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO.
OVERALL, RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE REGION. GIVEN THE
INCREASED SUBSIDENCE WITH THIS FEATURE AND WEAK FLOW, DRY CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS TIMEFRAME. A COUPLE OF WEAK WAVES/VORT
MAXES MAY DRIFT OVER THE AREA DURING THIS PERIOD, THOUGH INFLUENCE
FROM THESE IS EXPECTED TO MINIMAL, WITH BRIEF UPTICKS IN CLOUD COVER
AT MOST FROM THEM. OUTSIDE OF ALL OF THAT, RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS
AROUND 10-15 MPH AND POCKETS OF MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS IS
ANTICIPATED FOR SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO.
TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PERIOD WILL CONTINUE THE WARM TREND, WITH
ABOVE SEASONAL VALUES PREVAILING FOR MUCH OF THE REGION.
FRIDAY - SATURDAY: FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND,
UNSETTLED WEATHER STARTS TO RETURN AS A PATTERN CHANGE TAKES PLACE.
FIRST AND FOREMOST, CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO REMAIN ONLY MEDIUM
(~50%) ON THIS ULTIMATE PATTERN CHANGE GIVEN DISCREPANCIES IN BOTH
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODEL GUIDANCE. GIVEN ALL OF THAT, WILL
LEAN MORE HEAVILY ON ENSEMBLE MODEL GUIDANCE GIVEN MORE RUN TO RUN
MODEL CONSISTENCY. WITH THAT ALL SAID, TROUGHING IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AND START APPROACHING THE AREA FRIDAY AND PUSH OVER THROUGH
SATURDAY. THIS PATTERN WILL BRING A SURGE IN FORCING AND MOISTURE,
ALLOWING FOR PRECIPITATION TO INCREASE. THE GREATEST COVERAGE OF
PRECIPITATION IS ANTICIPATED ALONG THE MOUNTAINS WHERE FORCING WILL
BE MAXIMIZED, WITH SNOW EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. AS
FOR THE VALLEYS AND PLAINS, PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE WITH THIS PATTERN, THOUGH HOW MUCH DEVELOPS ACROSS THESE
AREAS WILL DEPEND HEAVILY ON HOW THE BROADER STORM PATTERN
MATERIALIZES. BEYOND ALL OF THAT, WINDS AND CLOUD COVER WILL START
TO RISE IN RESPONSE TO THE TROUGHING, WITH THE WINDIEST CONDITIONS
EXPECTED FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. AS FOR TEMPERATURES, FRIDAY
WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY WITH ABOVE SEASONAL VALUES ANTICIPATED
AREAWIDE. SATURDAY ON THE OTHER HAND WILL FALL BACK TO AROUND AND
BELOW SEASONAL VALUES AS THE TROUGH PUSHES OVER.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 212 AM MST SUN NOV 9 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL THREE TAF SITES, KCOS, KPUB, AND
KALS, FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT AND
DIURNALLY DRIVEN. UPPER-LEVEL CLOUD DECKS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS, DECREASING LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...EHR
LONG TERM...SIMCOE
AVIATION...EHR
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