441
FXUS65 KPUB 092321
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
421 PM MST SUN NOV 9 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS PERSIST MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
AREA-WIDE.
- UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS A PATTERN
CHANGE TAKES PLACE, THOUGH CONFIDENCE REMAINS MEDIUM (~50%) ON
THIS OVERALL.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 220 PM MST SUN NOV 9 2025
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS TONIGHT AND MONDAY, WITH JUST SOME OCCASIONAL
HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS CLOUDINESS PASSING THROUGH THE REGION. DRY AIR
MASS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER NIGHT OF CHILLY MIN
TEMPS, THOUGH WEAK LEE SURFACE TROUGH ALONG/WEST OF I-25 MAY
STIR ENOUGH WIND TO WARM FAVORED EASTERN MOUNTAIN SLOPES AS WE
GET TOWARD SUNRISE ON MON. MUCH WARMER MAX TEMPS EXPECTED MON AS
RIDGE BUILDS AND MID-LEVELS WARM, AND PLAINS/LEE SLOPES
ALONG/WEST OF I-25 MAY END UP 20 DEGF WARMER THAN SUNDAY BY
LATE AFTERNOON. ENOUGH OF A LEE TROUGH LINGERS ON THE PLAINS TO
KEEP WINDS STIRRED A BIT, THOUGH SPEEDS AT LOWER ELEVATIONS
SHOULD STAY BELOW 20 MPH, WHILE STRONGER GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH STAY
LIMITED TO MAINLY THE HIGHER PEAKS AND PORTIONS OF THE UPPER
ARKANSAS VALLEY.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 212 AM MST SUN NOV 9 2025
MONDAY NIGHT - THURSDAY: FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK, QUIET
WEATHER CONTINUES FOR SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO.
OVERALL, RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE REGION. GIVEN THE
INCREASED SUBSIDENCE WITH THIS FEATURE AND WEAK FLOW, DRY CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS TIMEFRAME. A COUPLE OF WEAK WAVES/VORT
MAXES MAY DRIFT OVER THE AREA DURING THIS PERIOD, THOUGH INFLUENCE
FROM THESE IS EXPECTED TO MINIMAL, WITH BRIEF UPTICKS IN CLOUD COVER
AT MOST FROM THEM. OUTSIDE OF ALL OF THAT, RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS
AROUND 10-15 MPH AND POCKETS OF MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS IS
ANTICIPATED FOR SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO.
TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PERIOD WILL CONTINUE THE WARM TREND, WITH
ABOVE SEASONAL VALUES PREVAILING FOR MUCH OF THE REGION.
FRIDAY - SATURDAY: FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND,
UNSETTLED WEATHER STARTS TO RETURN AS A PATTERN CHANGE TAKES PLACE.
FIRST AND FOREMOST, CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO REMAIN ONLY MEDIUM
(~50%) ON THIS ULTIMATE PATTERN CHANGE GIVEN DISCREPANCIES IN BOTH
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODEL GUIDANCE. GIVEN ALL OF THAT, WILL
LEAN MORE HEAVILY ON ENSEMBLE MODEL GUIDANCE GIVEN MORE RUN TO RUN
MODEL CONSISTENCY. WITH THAT ALL SAID, TROUGHING IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AND START APPROACHING THE AREA FRIDAY AND PUSH OVER THROUGH
SATURDAY. THIS PATTERN WILL BRING A SURGE IN FORCING AND MOISTURE,
ALLOWING FOR PRECIPITATION TO INCREASE. THE GREATEST COVERAGE OF
PRECIPITATION IS ANTICIPATED ALONG THE MOUNTAINS WHERE FORCING WILL
BE MAXIMIZED, WITH SNOW EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. AS
FOR THE VALLEYS AND PLAINS, PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE WITH THIS PATTERN, THOUGH HOW MUCH DEVELOPS ACROSS THESE
AREAS WILL DEPEND HEAVILY ON HOW THE BROADER STORM PATTERN
MATERIALIZES. BEYOND ALL OF THAT, WINDS AND CLOUD COVER WILL START
TO RISE IN RESPONSE TO THE TROUGHING, WITH THE WINDIEST CONDITIONS
EXPECTED FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. AS FOR TEMPERATURES, FRIDAY
WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY WITH ABOVE SEASONAL VALUES ANTICIPATED
AREAWIDE. SATURDAY ON THE OTHER HAND WILL FALL BACK TO AROUND AND
BELOW SEASONAL VALUES AS THE TROUGH PUSHES OVER.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 420 PM MST SUN NOV 9 2025
VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL THREE TERMINALS (KALS, KCOS, KPUB) THROUGH
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND DIURNALLY DRIVEN WITH
PASSING HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. MOZLEY
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...SIMCOE
AVIATION...MOZLEY
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