007
FXUS65 KPUB 121024
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
324 AM MST WED NOV 12 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
- NEXT STORM SYSTEM MOVES IN FOR LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND SNOW FOR THE MOUNTAINS.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 233 AM MST WED NOV 12 2025
CURRENTLY..
RIDGING CONTINUES TO MOVE IN FROM OUR WEST, BRINGING A FEW HIGH-
LEVEL CLOUDS TO PORTIONS OF OUR AREA EARLY THIS MORNING.
TEMPERATURES ARE QUITE A BIT COOLER THAN WHERE WE WERE LAST NIGHT,
THOUGH STILL SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. THE COLORADO SPRINGS AIRPORT IS REPORTING 45F AS OF 1 AM, AND
THE PUEBLO AIRPORT IS SITTING AT 37F. WE ARE COOLER EAST AND WEST OF
HERE, WITH LAMAR AT 27F AND ALAMOSA AT 19F. DEW POINTS ARE IN THE
TEENS AND LOW 20S. WINDS ARE MAINLY LIGHT AND ARE MOSTLY FOLLOWING
NORMAL DRAINAGE PATTERNS NEAR THE MOUNTAINS.
TODAY AND TONIGHT..
MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING THE RIDGE AXIS TOWARDS US THROUGHOUT THE
DAY, LEAVING US IN THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY UNDER WEAKER WESTERLY
FLOW. OUR TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER GIVEN WEAKER
DOWNSLOPING WINDS, WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 70S FOR
MUCH OF THE PLAINS, AND 60S FOR OUR MOUNTAIN VALLEYS AND THE PIKES
PEAK REGION. LEE TROUGHING DEVELOPS LATER THIS AFTERNOON, INCREASING
SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER OUR FAR EASTERN PLAINS AND SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS
TO AROUND 25 MPH OR SO. MOUNTAIN WAVE CLOUDS AND HIGH-CLOUDS IN
GENERAL ARE LIKELY TO RE-APPEAR OVER MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY. MODELS
BRING THE RIDGE AXIS OVERHEAD OVERNIGHT TONIGHT, TRANSITION US TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BY EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. THIS WILL KEEP OUR
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY WARMER FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS HEADING INTO
THURSDAY MORNING, WITH TEMPERATURES COOLING INTO THE 20S FOR
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS, 40S FOR MUCH OF OUR PLAINS, AND 30S FOR THE LOWER
ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY, WHERE WINDS WILL BE WEAKEST.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 233 AM MST WED NOV 12 2025
LONG RANGE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE EASTWARD
PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER LOW WHICH IS NOW SET TO AFFECT SOUTHERN
CO SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. AHEAD OF THIS, UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AS UPPER RIDGING ON THURSDAY TRANSITIONS
TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT BY SATURDAY AS THE UPPER LOW NOW
REMAINS OFF THE SOUTHERN CA COAST THROUGH SAT EVENING. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE 70S ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH 50S
AND 60S FOR THE LOWER MOUNTAIN AND VALLEY COMMUNITIES, AND 30S
AND 40S ACROSS THE HIGH COUNTRY. BOUTS OF MID/HIGH CLOUDINESS
WILL HELP TO TEMPER LOW TEMPERATURES, KEEPING THEM ON THE WARMER
SIDE OF CLIMO, ESPECIALLY WHERE WAVE CLOUDINESS AND ENHANCED
WESTERLY DRAINAGE WINDS INTO THE LEE SIDE SURFACE LOW SETS UP.
SNOW SPREADS INTO THE MOUNTAINS A FULL 24 HOURS LATER THAN RUNS
SHOWED LAST NIGHT AS THE CUT OFF LOW MEANDERS OFF THE COAST
BEFORE GRADUALLY FILLING AND LIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE WESTERN U.S. THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW HAS ALSO LIFTED
CONSIDERABLY FARTHER NORTH WITH CANADIAN AND ITS ENSEMBLES
BEING THE MORE SOUTHERN AND SLOWER TRACKING MEMBERS OF THE LONG
RANGE SUITE. EVEN THE CANADIAN BRINGS THE CLOSED LOW ACROSS CO
BY 12Z MON WHILE ITS AND THE OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
OF THE EC AND GFS ARE WEAKER, MORE OPEN AND FARTHER NORTH WITH
THE SYSTEM. THIS SPELLS A LOWER CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION EAST
OF THE MOUNTAINS AS THE PLAINS MAY BE DOMINATED BY DOWNSLOPE
FLOW ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. HOWEVER, THE
EASTERN SAN JUANS STILL HAVE A SHOT AND SEEING SOME MODERATE TO
POSSIBLY HEAVY SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WITH SNOW BEGINNING
SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE THE
FLOW ALOFT BECOMES NORTHWESTERLY, SHIFTING THE BEST OROGRAPHIC
FORCING INTO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS BY THAT TIME. PROBABILITIES
OF HEAVY SNOW HAVE INCREASED IN THE NBM ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
MOUNTAINS WITH GREATER THAN 8 INCH PROBABILITIES NOW AROUND 60%
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN, AND EVEN SOME NEAR 50% PROBABILITIES
OF SEEING 12 INCHES OR MORE. THE REMAINDER OF THE MOUNTAINS HAVE
CONSIDERABLY LOWER PROBABILITIES OF SEEING EVEN 4 TO 6 INCHES
OF SNOW (20-40% RANGE WITH HIGHEST PROBABILITIES OVER THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS). THE PLAINS STAY LARGELY DRY NOW WITH A TREND
TOWARDS A MORE NORTHERN TRACK. SOME SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
EARLY MONDAY WITH THE PALMER DIVIDE AND PIKES PEAK REGION MOST
LIKELY TO BE IMPACTED. THERE COULD BE A WINDOW FOR SNOW LEVELS
TO DROP ACROSS THE PALMER DIVIDE EARLY MONDAY MORNING, BUT
OVERALL THIS SHOULD BE BRIEF AS THE SYSTEM IS RELATIVELY WARM.
GIVEN THE LARGE RUN- TO- RUN CHANGES WITH THE STORM TRACK,
CONFIDENCE IS STILL LOW ON THESE DETAILS, ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS. ENSEMBLE MEANS STILL SHOW A DAMPENING SYSTEM WITH A
LESS AMPLIFIED FARTHER NORTH STORM TRACK, WHICH IS WHAT IT
SHOWED YESTERDAY AND LEADS ONE TO MAINTAIN A HEALTHY SKEPTICISM
FOR SOME OF THE SLOWER/STRONGER TRACKS IN THE DETERMINISTIC
MODELS. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL OFF FOR ALL AREAS, WITH HIGHS IN
THE 50S AND 60S FOR THE PLAINS, WITH 40S FOR THE VALLEYS AND MID
20S TO 30S FOR THE MOUNTAINS.
THE SYSTEM PULLS AWAY TO THE EAST, BUT THE PATTERN REMAINS
ACTIVE WITH MORE TROUGHING DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WEST. SPREAD IN
THE LONG RANGE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES REMAINS QUITE LARGE SO WILL
STICK WITH THE NBM FOR NOW WHICH SUGGESTS COOLER TEMPERATURES
WITH SOME SHOWERS INCREASING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AGAIN TOWARDS
MID WEEK.
-KT
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 233 AM MST WED NOV 12 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL THREE TAF SITES, KCOS, KPUB, AND
KALS, FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND DIURNALLY
DRIVEN. SCATTERED MIDDLE AND UPPER-LEVEL CLOUD DECKS ARE LIKELY
THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...EHR
LONG TERM...KT
AVIATION...EHR
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