439
FXUS65 KPUB 121734
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1034 AM MST WED NOV 12 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
- NEXT STORM SYSTEM MOVES IN FOR LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND SNOW FOR THE MOUNTAINS.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 233 AM MST WED NOV 12 2025
CURRENTLY..
RIDGING CONTINUES TO MOVE IN FROM OUR WEST, BRINGING A FEW HIGH-
LEVEL CLOUDS TO PORTIONS OF OUR AREA EARLY THIS MORNING.
TEMPERATURES ARE QUITE A BIT COOLER THAN WHERE WE WERE LAST NIGHT,
THOUGH STILL SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. THE COLORADO SPRINGS AIRPORT IS REPORTING 45F AS OF 1 AM, AND
THE PUEBLO AIRPORT IS SITTING AT 37F. WE ARE COOLER EAST AND WEST OF
HERE, WITH LAMAR AT 27F AND ALAMOSA AT 19F. DEW POINTS ARE IN THE
TEENS AND LOW 20S. WINDS ARE MAINLY LIGHT AND ARE MOSTLY FOLLOWING
NORMAL DRAINAGE PATTERNS NEAR THE MOUNTAINS.
TODAY AND TONIGHT..
MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING THE RIDGE AXIS TOWARDS US THROUGHOUT THE
DAY, LEAVING US IN THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY UNDER WEAKER WESTERLY
FLOW. OUR TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER GIVEN WEAKER
DOWNSLOPING WINDS, WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 70S FOR
MUCH OF THE PLAINS, AND 60S FOR OUR MOUNTAIN VALLEYS AND THE PIKES
PEAK REGION. LEE TROUGHING DEVELOPS LATER THIS AFTERNOON, INCREASING
SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER OUR FAR EASTERN PLAINS AND SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS
TO AROUND 25 MPH OR SO. MOUNTAIN WAVE CLOUDS AND HIGH-CLOUDS IN
GENERAL ARE LIKELY TO RE-APPEAR OVER MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY. MODELS
BRING THE RIDGE AXIS OVERHEAD OVERNIGHT TONIGHT, TRANSITION US TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BY EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. THIS WILL KEEP OUR
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY WARMER FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS HEADING INTO
THURSDAY MORNING, WITH TEMPERATURES COOLING INTO THE 20S FOR
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS, 40S FOR MUCH OF OUR PLAINS, AND 30S FOR THE LOWER
ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY, WHERE WINDS WILL BE WEAKEST.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 233 AM MST WED NOV 12 2025
LONG RANGE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE EASTWARD
PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER LOW WHICH IS NOW SET TO AFFECT SOUTHERN
CO SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. AHEAD OF THIS, UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AS UPPER RIDGING ON THURSDAY TRANSITIONS
TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT BY SATURDAY AS THE UPPER LOW NOW
REMAINS OFF THE SOUTHERN CA COAST THROUGH SAT EVENING. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE 70S ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH 50S
AND 60S FOR THE LOWER MOUNTAIN AND VALLEY COMMUNITIES, AND 30S
AND 40S ACROSS THE HIGH COUNTRY. BOUTS OF MID/HIGH CLOUDINESS
WILL HELP TO TEMPER LOW TEMPERATURES, KEEPING THEM ON THE WARMER
SIDE OF CLIMO, ESPECIALLY WHERE WAVE CLOUDINESS AND ENHANCED
WESTERLY DRAINAGE WINDS INTO THE LEE SIDE SURFACE LOW SETS UP.
SNOW SPREADS INTO THE MOUNTAINS A FULL 24 HOURS LATER THAN RUNS
SHOWED LAST NIGHT AS THE CUT OFF LOW MEANDERS OFF THE COAST
BEFORE GRADUALLY FILLING AND LIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE WESTERN U.S. THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW HAS ALSO LIFTED
CONSIDERABLY FARTHER NORTH WITH CANADIAN AND ITS ENSEMBLES
BEING THE MORE SOUTHERN AND SLOWER TRACKING MEMBERS OF THE LONG
RANGE SUITE. EVEN THE CANADIAN BRINGS THE CLOSED LOW ACROSS CO
BY 12Z MON WHILE ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN ALONG WITH THE OPERATIONAL AND
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS OF THE EC AND GFS ARE WEAKER, MORE OPEN AND
FARTHER NORTH WITH THE SYSTEM. THIS SPELLS A LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
PRECIPITATION EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS AS THE PLAINS MAY BE DOMINATED
BY DOWNSLOPE FLOW ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM.
HOWEVER, THE EASTERN SAN JUANS STILL HAVE A SHOT AND SEEING SOME
MODERATE TO POSSIBLY HEAVY SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS, WITH SNOW
BEGINNING SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
BEFORE THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES NORTHWESTERLY, SHIFTING THE BEST
OROGRAPHIC FORCING INTO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS FOR MONDAY.
PROBABILITIES OF HEAVY SNOW HAVE INCREASED IN THE NBM ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS WITH GREATER THAN 8 INCH PROBABILITIES NOW
AROUND 60% ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN, AND EVEN SOME NEAR 50%
PROBABILITIES OF SEEING 12 INCHES OR MORE. THE REMAINDER OF THE
MOUNTAINS HAVE CONSIDERABLY LOWER PROBABILITIES OF SEEING EVEN 4
TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW (20-40% RANGE WITH HIGHEST PROBABILITIES OVER
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS). THE PLAINS STAY LARGELY DRY NOW WITH A
TREND TOWARDS A MORE NORTHERN TRACK. SOME SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
EARLY MONDAY WITH THE PALMER DIVIDE AND PIKES PEAK REGION MOST
LIKELY TO BE IMPACTED. THERE COULD BE A WINDOW FOR SNOW LEVELS TO
DROP ACROSS THE PALMER DIVIDE EARLY MONDAY MORNING, BUT OVERALL
THIS SHOULD BE BRIEF AS THE SYSTEM IS RELATIVELY WARM. GIVEN THE
LARGE RUN-TO-RUN CHANGES WITH THE STORM TRACK, CONFIDENCE IS
STILL LOW ON THESE DETAILS, ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS.
ENSEMBLE MEANS STILL SHOW A DAMPENING SYSTEM WITH A LESS AMPLIFIED
AND FARTHER NORTH STORM TRACK, WHICH IS WHAT IT SHOWED YESTERDAY
AND LEADS ONE TO MAINTAIN A HEALTHY SKEPTICISM FOR SOME OF THE
SLOWER/STRONGER TRACKS IN THE DETERMINISTIC RUNS. TEMPERATURES
WILL COOL OFF FOR ALL AREAS, WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60S FOR THE
PLAINS, WITH 40S FOR THE VALLEYS AND MID 20S TO 30S FOR THE
MOUNTAINS.
THE SYSTEM PULLS AWAY TO THE EAST, BUT THE PATTERN REMAINS
ACTIVE WITH MORE TROUGHING DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WEST. SPREAD IN
THE LONG RANGE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES REMAINS QUITE LARGE SO WILL
STICK WITH THE NBM FOR NOW WHICH SUGGESTS COOLER TEMPERATURES
WITH SOME SHOWERS INCREASING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AGAIN TOWARDS
MID WEEK.
-KT
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1031 AM MST WED NOV 12 2025
VFR AT ALL TAF SITES THE NEXT 24 HRS, WITH OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF
BKN/OVC CIRRUS AT ALL TERMINALS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND FOLLOW
TYPICAL DIURNAL CYCLE.
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...EHR
LONG TERM...KT
AVIATION...PETERSEN
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