533
FXUS65 KPUB 141013
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
313 AM MST FRI NOV 14 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- NEAR RECORD WARMTH WILL BE LIKELY AGAIN FOR TODAY, WITH ABOVE NORMAL,
BUT SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES LIKELY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- A PATTERN CHANGE ARRIVES SUNDAY, BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES,
AND CHANCES FOR RAIN AND SNOW, ESPECIALLY TO THE HIGH
COUNTRY, FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
- AN ACTIVE PATTERN LOOKS TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 300 AM MST FRI NOV 14 2025
CURRENTLY..
SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS CLEAR SKIES IN PLACE EARLY THIS MORNING,
AS OUR FLOW ALOFT REMAINS MOSTLY WESTERLY. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE
20S OVER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS AS OF 1 AM, WITH 30S THROUGH PORTIONS OF
THE LOWER ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY, AND 40S OVER MUCH OF OUR PLAINS.
DEW POINTS ARE IN THE TEENS AND 20S. WINDS ARE LIGHT.
TODAY AND TONIGHT..
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT STARTS TO DEVELOP OVER OUR FAR WESTERN
MOUNTAINS, THOUGH MODELS KEEP OUR INCOMING LOW OFFSHORE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY. THIS KEEPS OUR FLOW ALOFT MAINLY ZONAL
AS WE REMAIN IN THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY. THIS PATTERN WILL ALLOW FOR ANOTHER DAY OF NEAR
RECORD WARMTH, WITH HIGHS SOARING TO AROUND 15 TO 20 DEGREES
WARMER THAN NORMAL ONCE AGAIN. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO RANGE FROM
LOW TO MID 60S OVER OUR MOUNTAIN VALLEYS, TO 70S ON OUR PLAINS,
TO LOW 80S OVER OUR FAR EASTERN PLAINS. WINDS WILL BE WEAK AND
DIURNALLY DRIVEN, WHICH WILL HELP TO KEEP FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
AT A MINIMUM, THOUGH HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE VERY LOW TODAY. ON
OUR PLAINS, RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES LOOK TO DIP DOWN INTO THE
LOW TEENS THIS AFTERNOON, WITH SINGLE DIGITS POSSIBLE NEAR THE
MOUNTAINS. PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN
TODAY, WITH MIDDLE AND HIGH CLOUDS PASSING OVER THE REGION
THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
RECORD MAX TEMPS FOR FRI 11/14
ALAMOSA...........67F IN 2017, FCST...61F
COLORADO SPRINGS..77F IN 1936, FCST...73F
PUEBLO............82F IN 1990, FCST...78F
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 300 AM MST FRI NOV 14 2025
SATURDAY..
A WEAK COLD FRONT LOOKS TO BACK ACROSS THE PLAINS ON SATURDAY,
KEEPING TEMPERATURES AT LEAST A FEW DEGREES COOLER ON THE PLAINS.
THIS WILL MEAN HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S FOR OUR PLAINS, AND
60S FOR MOUNTAIN VALLEYS, WHICH IS STILL AROUND 10 TO 15 DEGREES
WARMER THAN NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE
STILL LIKELY, ALONG WITH DRY CONDITIONS. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE
NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME, AS HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE AHEAD OF OUR INCOMING LOW. MODELS SUGGEST IT MAY MOVE ONSHORE
OVER CENTRAL OR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AS EARLY AS TOMORROW
EVENING, THOUGH OUR WINDS STILL LOOK TO BE FAIRLY LIGHT AND ONLY
SLIGHTLY SOUTHWESTERLY ALOFT BY THAT TIME.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY..
OVERNIGHT LOWS ON SATURDAY LOOK TO REMAIN WARMER THAN NORMAL, THANKS
TO INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND MIXING AHEAD OF THE
INCOMING LOW. THE SAN LUIS VALLEY IS LIKELY TO STILL DROP DOWN INTO
THE 20S, WITH MUCH OF OUR PLAINS ONLY COOLING DOWN INTO THE UPPER
30S AND LOW 40S. THE BANANA BELT MAY SEE LOCATIONS REMAINING IN THE
UPPER 40S. MODELS SUGGEST A SECONDARY PUSH OF COOLER AIR SUNDAY
MORNING, THOUGH HIGHS DON'T LOOK MUCH COLDER FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
OUR PLAINS LOOK TO WARM BACK INTO THE LOW 70S OR SO ON SUNDAY. THERE
IS STILL A HIGH AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE INCOMING SYSTEM, BUT
THE GENERAL CONSENSUS DOES STILL FAVOR SNOW FOR OUR MOUNTAINS AND AT
LEAST A SMALL CHANCE FOR RAIN FOR MUCH OF OUR PLAINS. AT THIS TIME,
MODELS BRING AN OPEN AND WEAKER WAVE INTO THE GREAT BASIN BY SUNDAY
EVENING, SPREADING BEST CHANCES FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL INTO THE
SAN JUANS THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING AND THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THERE
LOOKS TO BE AN 80% CHANCE FOR AT LEAST 6 OR SO INCHES OF SNOW FOR
THE SAN JUANS, WITH LOWER END PROBABILITIES SHOWING TOTALS IN THE 8
TO 10 INCH RANGE. TOTALS OF CLOSER TO 2 TO 4 INCHES OR LESS LOOK TO
BE THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO FOR THE REST OF OUR RANGES. THE
WETS AND THE RAMPARTS LOOK TO MISS OUT ON ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL
FOR THE MOST PART, AND WILL LIKELY BE TOO WARM FOR SNOW AT THAT
TIME. RAIN CHANCES SPREAD INTO THE MOUNTAIN ADJACENT PLAINS LATE
SUNDAY EVENING AND TAPER OFF THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. TIMING AND
TRACK CHANGES COULD DRASTICALLY CHANGE PRECIP TIMING AND
TOTALS, SO STAND BY FOR UPDATED FORECASTS! COOLER TEMPERATURES
DOES SEEM TO BE A CERTAINTY, WITH HIGHS LOOKING TO REMAIN IN THE
50S AND 60S ON MONDAY.
TUESDAY ONWARDS..
OUR PATTERN REMAINS ACTIVE THROUGHOUT THE REST OF OUR WORK WEEK,
WITH A SERIES OF LOWS PASSING THROUGH THE REGION AND A CONTINUED
LACK OF MODEL CONSISTENCY ON THE SUBJECT. OUR TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
REMAIN NEAR NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL, WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S. BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN OVER THE HIGH COUNTRY, THOUGH CHANGES IN
TIMING, TRACK, AND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH INCOMING SYSTEMS MAY
LEAD TO INCREASED CHANCES FOR MOISTURE ON OUR PLAINS THROUGHOUT THE
WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 300 AM MST FRI NOV 14 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL THREE TAF SITES, KCOS, KPUB, AND
KALS, FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND DIURNALLY
DRIVEN. SCATTERED TO OCCASIONALLY BROKEN MIDDLE AND UPPER-LEVEL
CLOUD DECKS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...EHR
LONG TERM...EHR
AVIATION...EHR
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