121
FNUS75 KPUB 141729
FWSPUB
SPOT FORECAST FOR MANITOU RESERVOIR RX...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1029 AM MST FRI NOV 14 2025
FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1000 MST ON NOVEMBER 16.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE, CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.
PLEASE CONTACT OUR OFFICE AT (719) 948-9429, IF YOU HAVE QUESTIONS
OR CONCERNS WITH THIS FORECAST.
DISCUSSION
AARON, REGARDING YOUR 3 QUESTIONS:
1: MAY SEE SOME SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY. AT THIS TIME
IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE ANYTHING HEAVY, BUT THERE COULD BE A TRACE OF
SNOW ON THE GROUND WITH THIS SYSTEM COMING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
2: WINDS - THIS IS GOING TO BE THE BIGGEST ISSUE. WEST TO NORTHWEST
WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH, ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING.
ALL MY GUIDANCE IS SHOWING WINDS WILL BE AN ISSUE ON THIS DAY. I
KNOW YOU MENTIONED YOU HAVE A "TIGHT WINDOW" WITH THIS EVENT, BUT THE
LATER YOU DO THE BURN THE BETTER AS WINDS WILL DECREASE AS THE DAY GOES
BY.
3: WITH THE GUSTY WINDS I WOULD BELIEVE SMOKE WILL DISPERSE PRETTY
QUICKLY, AND WILL PUSH OFF TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST. HOWEVER WITH THE
COOLER AIR BEHIND THIS WEATHER SYSTEM IT MAY KEEP THE SMOKE LOWER
IN THE ATMOSPHERE.
PLEASE RESUBMIT ANOTHER SPOT TOMORROW MORNING SO WE CAN GIVE YOU THE
LATEST INFORMATION. TAKE CARE.
STEVE
SUNDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY. CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AFTER 1700.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....56F.
MIN HUMIDITY........25-30 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......6500 FT AGL UNTIL 1600. 1500 FT AGL AFTER 1700.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 16 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR UNTIL 1100, THEN GOOD UNTIL 1600, THEN
FAIR UNTIL 1700, THEN POOR.
TIME (MST) 3AM 4AM 5AM 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A
SKY (%).........11 10 11 12 13 17 22 35
WEATHER COV..... CHC
WEATHER TYPE.... RW
TSTM COV........
TEMP............48 52 55 56 55 52 48 44
RH..............37 33 31 30 31 35 40 47
20 FT WIND DIR..SW SW SW SW SW S S S
20 FT WIND SPD..9 9 10 10 10 9 9 9
20 FT WIND GUST.17 17 21 21 21 20 20 20
MIX HGT (KFT)...3.5 5.0 6.0 6.5 7.5 5.5 3.5 1.5
TRANSP WIND DIR.SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW
TRANSP WIND SPD.14 15 16 18 20 18 17 16
SDSPL KT-FT/100044 67 83 108 128 89 54 23
SUNDAY NIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY(39 PERCENT) UNTIL 2000, THEN
MOSTLY CLOUDY(61 PERCENT) UNTIL 0200, THEN
PARTLY CLOUDY(38 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWERS UNTIL 0100. CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS
AFTER 2100 UNTIL 0500.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....33F.
MAX HUMIDITY........52-57 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH UNTIL 2100, THEN
WEST 14-18 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 38 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 14 MPH UNTIL 2300, THEN WEST
AROUND 18 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR.
TIME (MST) 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P
SKY (%).........35 43 52 58 64 70 62 54 46 41 39 31
WEATHER COV.....CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
WEATHER TYPE....RW RW RW RS RS RS RS SW SW SW SW
TSTM COV........
TEMP............42 42 42 41 40 39 38 38 37 36 35 34
RH..............51 51 51 53 55 57 54 50 48 45 45 47
20 FT WIND DIR..SW SW SW W W W W W W W W W
20 FT WIND SPD..10 10 10 13 13 13 18 18 18 18 18 18
20 FT WIND GUST.22 22 22 26 26 26 36 36 36 38 38 38
MIX HGT (KFT)...1.5 1.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5
TRANSP WIND DIR.SW SW SW SW W W W W W W W W
TRANSP WIND SPD.15 14 13 15 16 18 18 20 20 20 18 18
SDSPL KT-FT/100017 12 7 13 19 28 22 17 11 11 10 10
MONDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY(30 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....46F.
MIN HUMIDITY........30-35 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 16-20 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 38 MPH IN THE
MORNING.
MIXING HEIGHT.......4000 FT AGL UNTIL 1600, THEN 1000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 11 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 0900, THEN FAIR UNTIL 1500, THEN
POOR.
TIME (MST) 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A
SKY (%).........30 29 28 25 22 19 20 22 23 28 37 42
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....
TSTM COV........
TEMP............34 33 33 35 39 42 45 46 45 43 39 35
RH..............49 53 56 54 46 41 36 35 36 39 46 54
20 FT WIND DIR..W W W W W W W W W W W W
20 FT WIND SPD..20 20 20 18 18 18 14 14 14 12 12 12
20 FT WIND GUST.38 38 38 35 35 35 28 28 28 23 23 23
MIX HGT (KFT)...1.0 1.5 2.0 3.0 3.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 3.0 1.5 0.5
TRANSP WIND DIR.W W W W W W W W W W SW SW
TRANSP WIND SPD.20 20 20 18 16 15 15 14 14 13 12 10
SDSPL KT-FT/100019 28 37 47 52 59 59 54 54 34 18 4
FORECASTER...HODANISH
REQUESTED BY...AARON LUND
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2525939.0/PUB
.DELDT 11/14/25
.FORMATTERVERSION 2.0.0
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