094
FXUS65 KPUB 151724
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1024 AM MST MON DEC 15 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY AND WARMER TODAY WITH LIGHT WINDS.
- WARM AND DRY TUESDAY, THEN VERY WINDY AND DRY WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY MORNING, WITH CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE.
- COOLER THURSDAY, THEN WARM AND BREEZY FROM FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND.
- OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS RETURN TO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
WEDNESDAY AND AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND, THOUGH SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
LOOK LIGHT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 225 AM MST MON DEC 15 2025
IT WILL BE DRY AND WARMER TODAY WITH HIGH CLOUDINESS INVADING FROM
THE SOUTHWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN
YESTERDAY ACROSS THE PLAINS, WITH READINGS SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND VALLEYS. THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. IT LACKS MOISTURE HOWEVER,
SO THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN DRY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TODAY
BEFORE THEY INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH CROSSES THE
MOUNTAINS TO OUR SOUTH AND THE GRADIENT ALOFT INCREASES AGAIN BEHIND
THE SYSTEM. THE SURFACE LEE TROUGH WILL KICK EASTWARD OVERNIGHT
ALLOWING FOR ENHANCED WESTERLY DRAINAGE WINDS TO PICK UP ALONG THE
LOWER EASTERN SLOPES INTO THE I-25 CORRIDOR. THIS WILL KEEP
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES ON THE MILDER SIDE ESPECIALLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. DIDN'T MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES FROM MODEL BLENDS. -KT
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 225 AM MST MON DEC 15 2025
WARM AND DRY ON TUESDAY AS UPPER RIDGE FLATTENS ACROSS COLORADO,
WITH A MODEST INCREASE IN WINDS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE
AFTERNOON AS MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW BEGINS TO STRENGTHEN. STILL
LOOKS VERY WINDY WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING, AS
STRONG UPPER JET (250MB WINDS 160-170 KTS) NOSES INTO THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES. CROSS-SECTIONS DON'T SHOW MUCH OF A MOUNTAIN
WAVE WED AS FORWARD SHEAR DOMINATES WITH JET OVERHEAD, THOUGH
SIMPLE BRUTE FORCE MIXING MAY BOOST WINDS INTO THE 60-70 KT
RANGE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN BY WED EVENING, AS BROAD AREA OF
STRONG MID-LEVEL FLOW (50-70 KTS AT 700MB) MIGRATES ACROSS SRN
COLORADO. NOT QUITE AS WINDY LOWER ELEVATIONS, THOUGH STILL
COULD GET CLOSE TO HIGH WIND CRITERIA (50 KTS) ALONG I-25 AND
ACROSS FREMONT COUNTY, ESPECIALLY WED EVENING. BLENDED MODEL
NUMBERS CONTINUE TO RUN TOO LOW WITH WIND SPEEDS, AND AGAIN WENT
WITH SPEEDS CLOSER TO THE TOP END OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.
COMBINATION OF WARM TEMPS, STRONG WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY WILL
INCREASE FIRE DANGER ALL AREAS WED, GREATEST RISK OF CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR FROM
PUEBLO SOUTH, WERE RELATIVE HUMIDITY MAY FALL-OFF BELOW 15
PERCENT FOR A FEW HOURS IN THE AFTERNOON. QUICK BURST OF SOME
WINDY SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY WED AFTERNOON/EVENING OVER THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS AS JET AND UPPER WAVE SWING THROUGH, THOUGH SNOW ENDS
QUICKLY BY EARLY THU MORNING, KEEPING ACCUMS LIGHT.
COOLER WITH LESS WIND THU AS TROUGH AND JET PULL AWAY, BEFORE
WARMER AND WINDIER CONDITIONS RETURN FROM FRI THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, AS STRONG WESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE WRN U.S. A
COUPLE EMBEDDED WAVES WILL BRING SNOW SHOWERS AT TIMES TO THE
PEAKS ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE, WITH SOME LIGHT ACCUMS
POSSIBLE OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS SATURDAY, THEN ALONG THE
ENTIRE DIVIDE BY LATE SUNDAY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1022 AM MST MON DEC 15 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE NEAR CERTAIN NEXT 24 HOUR AT ALL 3 TAF SITES,
KPUB, KALS AND KCOS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND DIURNALLY DRIVEN.
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...PETERSEN
AVIATION...HODANISH
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