623
FXUS65 KPUB 170000
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
500 PM MST TUE DEC 16 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- INCREASING WINDS OVER THE HIGH COUNTRY OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS.
- STRONG/DAMAGING WINDS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND I-25 CORRIDOR WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH WIDESPREAD HIGH FIRE DANGER ON
THE PLAINS.
- ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AGAIN ON THURSDAY,
AND MORESO FOR FRIDAY ON THE PLAINS.
- OCCASIONAL WINDY SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
WEDNESDAY AND AGAIN SATURDAY, THOUGH SNOWFALL AMOUNTS LOOK
LIGHT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 200 PM MST TUE DEC 16 2025
CURRENTLY...WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUED ACROSS THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON, WITH ONE WAVE OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS
EXITING THE STATE, AND ANOTHER STARTING TO PUSH INTO THE WEST.
WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS AND PLENTY OF SUN HAVE HELPED BOOST TEMPS
UP INTO RECORD TO NEAR RECORD LEVELS FOR MUCH OF THE PLAINS, WITH
PUEBLO SETTING A NEW RECORD FOR THE DAY AND COLORADO SPRINGS GETTING
CLOSE. AS OF 1 PM TEMPS HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE MID 40S TO MID 50S FOR
THE HIGH VALLEYS, AND 60S TO AROUND 70F FOR THE PLAINS.
TONIGHT...AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL PACIFIC SYSTEM WILL PUSH INTO
THE PACIFIC NW TONIGHT, WHILE THE LEADING EDGE OF THE UPPER JET
NOSES INTO THE GREAT BASIN. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ALOFT TIGHTENS AND
WESTERLY FLOW BEGINS TO STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OVERNIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS TOMORROW, LEADING TO MILDER
TEMPS FOR THE HIGH TERRAIN AS WELL AS THE LEE SLOPES OR BANANA BELT
REGION. OVERNIGHT MINIMUMS WILL DROP INTO THE TEENS TO PERHAPS
SINGLE DIGITS FOR THE SAN LUIS VALLEY, 20S FOR THE UPPER ARKANSAS
RIVER VALLEY, MID 20S TO MID 30S FOR THE MUCH OF THE PLAINS, AND MID
30S TO AROUND 40F NEAR THE MTS WEST OF I-25.
WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER SYSTEM QUICKLY MOVES EAST ACROSS MT ALONG THE
US/CANADA BORDER THROUGH THE DAY, WHILE THE UPPER JET WITH A 170 KT
CORE EDGES INTO WESTERN CO. WITHOUT GOING INTO TOO MUCH DETAIL,
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE LEANS TOWARDS A MUCH STRONGER EVENT WITH A
TIGHTENING GRADIENT BY MIDDAY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND ADJACENT
PLAINS PRODUCING A BRUTE FORCE HIGH WIND EVENT, WITH THE GREATEST
WINDS LIKELY TO BE IN THE 00Z-10Z TIME WINDOW. IF THE UPPER JET WAS
SCHEDULED TO BE A FEW HOURS EARLIER, THIS COULD A VERY, VERY BAD
FIRE WEATHER EVENT, BUT THE WAY IT IS CURRENTLY, THE STRONGEST WINDS
WILL LIKELY OCCUR AFTER THE HEAT OF THE DAY WHEN HUMIDITY LEVELS ARE
STARTING TO RECOVER. REGARDLESS, IT WILL BE A HEADS UP DAY FOR FIRE
MONITORING. GIVEN THE MODEL TRENDS, DECIDED TO GO AHEAD AND EXPAND
HIGH WIND HIGHLIGHTS TO ALL OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR, MUCH OF FREMONT
COUNTY, THE WET MTS AND THE WET MT VALLEY STARTING AT 21Z AND
LASTING THROUGH 10Z. FINALLY, EXTENDED EXISTING HIGH WIND WARNING
UNTIL 10Z AS WELL TO ACCOUNT FOR LASTING WINDS AND TO MAKE IT
CLEANER. THE HIGH WINDS MAY NOT EXTEND AS FAR SOUTH AS TRINIDAD AND
THE SOUTHERN BORDER, BUT DID NOT WANT TO GET TOO COMPLICATED WITH
START TIMES AND AREAS.
ONE FINAL NOTE, WITH RESPECT TO SNOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTS. MODELS
DO POINT TOWARDS A QUICK BLAST OF 2 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW FOR THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF LAKE AND CHAFFEE COUNTIES WED AFTN THROUGH THE
EVENING. THE AMOUNTS ARE LESS THAN NEEDED FOR ANY SORT OF HIGHLIGHT,
BUT THE STRONG WINDS WILL CERTAINLY PRODUCE AREAS OF BLOWING AND
DRIFTING SNOW, AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES.
PLAN ON A WARM AND WINDY DAY TOMORROW, WITH HIGH TEMPS ACROSS THE
PLAINS ONCE AGAIN AROUND 20 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. HIGHS
WILL WARM INTO UPPER 40S TO MID 50S ACROSS THE HIGH VALLEYS, AND 60S
TO AROUND 70F ACROSS THE PLAINS. SECURE ALL LIGHTWEIGHT OUTDOOR
ITEMS! MOORE
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 200 AM MST TUE DEC 16 2025
UPPER JET MOVES OVERHEAD WED EVENING, WITH STRONGEST MID-LEVEL
FLOW ROUGHLY 03Z-09Z, WITH POCKETS OF 50-60 KT WINDS AT 700MB,
AND SOME 100KT FLAGS AT 500MB. STILL NOT SEEING A CLASSIC
MOUNTAIN WAVE SET-UP WITH MOUNTAIN TOP INVERSION/CRITICAL LAYER
LACKING, THOUGH SHEAR PROFILE DOES GO NEUTRAL/WEAK REVERSED FOR
PERIOD IN THE AFTERNOON, BEFORE JET ARRIVES AND PROFILE BECOMES
STRONGLY FORWARD AFTER 00Z. SIMPLE BRUTE FORCE MIXING SHOULD GET
WINDS ABOVE 75 MPH ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND OVER/NEAR
PIKES PEAK, ESPECIALLY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING, AND HAVE UPGRADED
THE HIGH WIND WATCH TO A WARNING FOR THESE AREAS. FARTHER EAST
ALONG I-25, LACK OF A PRONOUNCED WAVE AND LATE ARRIVAL (AFTER
SUNSET) OF THE STRONGEST WINDS ALOFT MAY LIMIT WIND POTENTIAL
SOMEWHAT, THOUGH WITH BORA COLD FRONT RACING SOUTH THROUGH THE
AREA IN THE EVENING, COULD GET A QUICK BURST OF 50-60 MPH WINDS
RIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE 8PM-2AM TIMEFRAME. WILL THUS HOLD
OFF ON ANY EXPANSION OF HIGH WIND HIGHLIGHTS TO LOWER
ELEVATIONS, AND LET LATER SHIFTS LOOK TAKE A LOOK AT NEW CAMS
DATA LATER TODAY. HAVE ALSO UPGRADED THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH TO A
WARNING FOR WED AS WINDS WILL BE GUSTY THROUGH FREMONT COUNTY
AND ALONG/EAST OF I-25 FOR MUCH OF THE DAY, AND EXPANDED IT TO
INCLUDE THE PALMER DIVIDE AS WELL. A GOOD DEAL OF BLENDED MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS RH THRESHOLD (15 PERCENT) MAY BE HARD TO REACH
AS DEWPOINTS STAY IN THE 20S, BUT HAVE SEEN AT LEAST A FEW
MODELS (ESPECIALLY ECMWF) SHOWING AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS FALLING
INTO THE TEENS, LEADING TO RH OVER MUCH OF THE AREA IN THE
LOWER/MID TEENS, WHICH SEEMS REALISTIC GIVEN STRONG
WINDS/MIXING. SNOW SHOWERS WILL RETURN TO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
WED AFTERNOON AND EVENING, AND WHILE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE
LIGHT (1-3 INCHES) TRAVEL COULD BE DIFFICULT AT TIMES OVER
HIGHER MOUNTAIN PASSES GIVEN COMBINATION OF WIND AND BLOWING
SNOW.
MUCH COOLER THURSDAY, AS COLD FRONT WILL BE WELL SOUTH AND MID-
LEVEL TEMPS FALL THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS ALOFT STAY STRONG, AND
WITH AT LEAST SOME SHALLOW MIXING, SUSPECT WE'LL SEE SOME 30-45
MPH GUSTS REAPPEAR, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE KS BORDER. THIS RAISES
THE RISK OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN THE AFTERNOON
OVER THE PLAINS, AS DESPITE THE COOLER TEMPS, DEWPOINTS WILL
CRASH INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS, KEEPING MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY
IN THE TEENS ONCE AGAIN. WON'T ISSUE ANY HIGHLIGHT RIGHT NOW,
BUT A FIRE WEATHER WATCH MAY BE NEEDED IF DRYING TREND PERSISTS
IN THE NEXT FEW MODEL RUNS. WARMER AND BREEZY/WINDY ON FRI,
THOUGH WITH UPPER JET SHIFTING NORTHWARD, EXTREME WINDS LOOK
UNLIKELY. WINDIEST ON THE PLAINS, WHERE DEEP MIXING ALONG THE
LEE TROUGH WILL BOOST WIND SPEEDS, AND WE MAY AGAIN HAVE
ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AT TIMES,
ESPECIALLY EAST OF I-25. SLIGHTLY COOLER (ESPECIALLY SUNDAY) AND
BREEZY OVER THE WEEKEND AS FAST WESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES, THEN
DRY, WARMER AND STILL BREEZY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE ROCKIES.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 459 PM MST TUE DEC 16 2025
KCOS AND KPUB: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
WINDS TONIGHT WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR BOTH
SITES. THROUGH LATE TOMORROW MORNING THOUGH, WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
START INCREASING, WITH FREQUENT GUSTS AT OR ABOVE 40 KNOTS BY MID
AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION, THERE MAY BE A BRIEF WINDOW DURING THE LATE
MORNING HOURS OF SOME LOW LEVEL SHEAR AS STRONGER WINDS ALOFT START
TO PUSH OVER THE AREA. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS LOW (20%) IN THIS AT
THIS TIME, SO HAVE LEFT OUT OF THE TAF PRODUCT ITSELF. OTHERWISE,
DRY CONDITIONS WITH POCKETS OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS IS ANTICIPATED.
KALS: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT, WITH AN INCREASE IN
WINDS DURING TOMORROW AFTERNOON. WHILE FREQUENT HIGHER WIND GUSTS
ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME, AN OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20
KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. OTHERWISE, DRY
CONDITIONS WITH POCKETS OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS IS ANTICIPATED.
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 11 AM WEDNESDAY TO 3 AM MST THURSDAY
FOR COZ058-060-061-081-082.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 6 PM MST WEDNESDAY FOR COZ222-
226>237.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 2 PM WEDNESDAY TO 3 AM MST THURSDAY FOR
COZ077>080-083>088.
SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...PETERSEN
AVIATION...SIMCOE
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