845
FXUS65 KPUB 171100
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
400 AM MST WED DEC 17 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- DAMAGING WINDS AND BLOWING SNOW ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE
HIGH COUNTRY BEGINNING THIS MORNING.
- HIGH FIRE DANGER IS EXPECTED ON THE PLAINS TODAY, WITH
DAMAGING WINDS MOVING IN LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND REACHING A
PEAK THROUGH THE LATER EVENING HOURS.
- ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AGAIN THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY ON THE PLAINS.
- BRIEF COOL DOWN THURSDAY, THEN VERY WARM FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
BEFORE ANOTHER MINOR COOL OFF ON SUN. QUICK PEAK AT THE
HOLIDAY WEEK FROM MON ONWARD SUGGESTS WARM AND DRY WEATHER
CONTINUING.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 210 AM MST WED DEC 17 2025
CURRENTLY..
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PERSISTS WITH JUST A FEW HIGH CLOUDS ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY EARLY THIS MORNING, MAINLY OVER OUR NORTHERN AND
EASTERN PLAINS. TEMPERATURES ARE MILD AND FAR WARMER THAN NORMAL,
WITH MOST LOCATIONS STILL SITTING IN THE 30S AND 40S ON THE PLAINS.
CANON CITY IS STILL 48F AS OF 2 AM, AND TRINIDAD IS STILL 37F.
DEWPOINTS ARE MAINLY IN THE TEENS ABOVE ZERO.
TODAY AND TONIGHT..
MOST OF TODAY WILL BE A LEAD UP TO THIS EVENING'S DAMAGING WIND
EVENT, THOUGH DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AND HIGH WINDS WILL
EXIST THROUGHOUT THE DAYTIME HOURS AS WELL. AS THE INCOMING SYSTEM
APPROACHES THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS, WE WILL BE DOWNSLOPING AND
WARMING DRASTICALLY ACROSS THE AREA, WHICH WILL BRING ABOUT ANOTHER
DAY OF TEMPERATURES IN THE HIGH 60S AND 70S. THOUGH RECORDS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TODAY, WE WILL BE EVERY BIT AS WARM AS YESTERDAY, WHICH DID
BREAK RECORDS IN BOTH THE SPRINGS AND PUEBLO. TODAY'S RECORDS ARE
MUCH HIGHER, AND ARE REFLECTIVE OF ALL TIME DECEMBER RECORDS FOR
PUEBLO. 82F IS PUEBLO'S RECORD, AND 75F IS COLORADO SPRINGS. BOTH
WERE SET IN 1980. CURRENT FORECAST IS 68F FOR THE SPRINGS AND 72F
FOR PUEBLO.
OUR HIGH WIND WARNING FOR THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND TELLER COUNTY
GOES INTO EFFECT AT 11 AM THIS MORNING, WHERE GUSTS TO 80 MPH WILL
BE POSSIBLE. THE HIGH WIND WARNING FOR THE LOWER ELEVATION ZONES ALL
ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR, AND THROUGH FREMONT COUNTY, GOES INTO
EFFECT AT 2 PM. THESE AREAS CAN EXPECT GUSTS TO 60 MPH. BOTH WIND
WARNINGS ARE VALID UNTIL 3 AM THURSDAY MORNING. ALL OF OUR PLAINS
AND FREMONT COUNTY ARE ALSO UNDER A RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM
THROUGH 6 PM THIS EVENING. IF THERE IS GOOD NEWS ABOUT THE FIRE
DANGER FOR TODAY, ITS THAT THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED LATER IN
THE DAY AND AFTER SUNSET, WHICH WILL HELP TO MITIGATE THE FIRE
WEATHER THREAT. THOUGH DEWPOINTS THEMSELVES WILL NOT TRULY INCREASE
SUBSTANTIALLY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
TECHNICALLY RECOVER AS THE TEMPERATURES COOL THIS EVENING. THIS WILL
HELP TO MITIGATE FIRE WEATHER RISKS AFTER SUNSET. MANY AREAS IN THE
RFW LOOK TO SEE RECOVERIES IN THE 30 TO 40% RANGE TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING, WITH MINIMUM VALUES THIS AFTERNOON IN THE LOW TO
MID TEENS. THIS TREND WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED WITH THESE
EXTREME WINDS TODAY, AND PEOPLE IN ALL AREAS SHOULD TAKE CARE NOT TO
START A WILDFIRE TODAY.
A QUICK BOUT OF WIND DRIVEN SNOW WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE OVER THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF LAKE AND CHAFFEE
COUNTIES. THOUGH NEW SNOW TOTALS WILL BE TOO LOW TO WARRANT ANY
HIGHLIGHTS, VISIBILITIES WILL BE DEGRADED DUE TO STRONG WINDS.
TRAVEL COULD BE VERY DIFFICULT DUE TO BLOWING SNOW. A QUICK 3 TO 6
INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR HIGHER PEAKS, WITH A COUPLE OF INCHES
POSSIBLE FOR LEADVILLE BY THIS EVENING AS WELL.
MODELS BRING THE NORTHERN PLAINS LOW INTO EASTERN MONTANA BY THIS
EVENING, WITH THE 170KT JET CORE MAKING ITS WAY INTO OUR REGION BY
AROUND 9 PM. THIS LOOKS TO BE THE BEGINNING OF THE STRONGEST WINDS
FOR MOST OF THE MOUNTAIN ADJACENT PLAINS. THE STRONGEST JET SUPPORT
SLIDES EAST BY AROUND 3 AM, KEEPING STRONG WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA STRAIGHT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. BE SURE TO SECURE LOOSE
OBJECTS EARLY TODAY, BECAUSE THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE COMING AFTER
SUNSET AND THEY MAY BE DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS TO FIND IN THE DARK!
GUSTS TO 60 MPH ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF I-25
FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH 3 AM THIS MORNING
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 210 AM MST WED DEC 17 2025
STILL WINDY ON THE PLAINS THURSDAY, AS UPPER LOW WRAPS UP OVER
MINNESOTA, WITH BRISK 40-50 KT 700 MB FLOW OVER THE FAR EAST
FROM EARLY MORNING INTO MIDDAY. COULD GET SOME GUSTS 50-60 MPH
EARLY THU MORNING OVER ERN KIOWA/PROWERS COUNTIES, BUT WITH
STRONGEST WINDS SHIFTING EASTWARD BY 18Z, IT DOESN'T LIKE QUITE
WINDY ENOUGH FOR A HIGH WIND WARNING AT THIS POINT. RELATIVE
HUMIDITY TANKS ALONG AND EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS THU AS SURFACE
DEWPOINTS FALL OFF INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS, LEADING TO A COUPLE
HOURS OF NEAR RED FLAG CONDITIONS (15 PERCENT RH AND WINDS OVER
25 MPH), ESPECIALLY NEAR THE KS BORDER. NOT SURE IF WE'LL MEET
THE 3 HR TIME DURATION GIVEN RATHER COOL TEMPERATURES, SO WILL
HOLD OFF ON A FIRE HIGHLIGHT FOR NOW. BACK ALONG I-25 AND OVER
THE MOUNTAINS/VALLEYS, BREEZY AND COOLER CONDITIONS EXPECTED,
WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
WARM AIR RETURNS ON FRIDAY UNDER BRISK WLY FLOW ALOFT AND RISING
MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES, AND MANY LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL REACH
THE 60S/70S FOR MAXES BY LATE DAY. LEE SURFACE TROUGH ON THE
PLAINS AND STRONG FLOW ALOFT (30-40 KTS AT 700MB) SUGGEST
AFTERNOON WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY AND STRONG, LEADING TO ANOTHER
DAY OF ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ON THE PLAINS.
DEWPOINTS DO RISE SLIGHTLY BACK INTO THE TEENS AND 20S, WHICH
WILL MAKE MINIMUM HUMIDITY MARGINAL ONCE AGAIN, SO WILL HOLD OFF
ON ANY HIGHLIGHTS, THOUGH SUSPECT DEEPLY MIXED AREAS SOUTH OF
THE ARKANSAS RIVER WILL BE AT LEAST CLOSE TO CRITICAL FOR MUCH
OF THE DAY. SIMILAR SET-UP FOR SAT, THOUGH WEAK FRONT BACKS
WESTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS IN THE AFTERNOON, SHAVING A FEW DEGF
OFF OF MAX TEMPS AND HELPING LIMIT FIRE DANGER SLIGHTLY. CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS COULD SEE SOME SNOW SHOWERS SAT AS WAVE BRUSHES BY TO
THE NORTH, THOUGH ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT. AFTER A
COOLER DAY ON SUNDAY, WARM, DRY AND BREEZY WEATHER RETURNS FOR
MUCH OF THE HOLIDAY WEEK, AS BROAD UPPER RIDGE MIGRATES FROM THE
ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 400 AM MST WED DEC 17 2025
FOR KCOS AND KPUB..VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS, THOUGH STRONG WINDS WILL LIKELY EFFECT AIRFIELD OPERATIONS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE SECOND HALF OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. GUSTS IN
EXCESS OF 45 MPH ARE EXPECTED ON BOTH STATIONS, AND A BRIEF PERIOD
OF WIND SHEAR WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING BEFORE WINDS BEGIN
TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE. STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED LATE THIS
EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, WITH WEAKENING LIKELY LATE IN
THE FORECAST PERIOD. OTHER THAN STRONG WINDS, IMPACTS FROM OTHER
RESTRICTIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED.
FOR KALS..VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS
WILL BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE, WITH GUSTS OUT OF THE WEST AT 12 MPH
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY, STRONGER WINDS MOVE IN ALOFT THROUGH THE
EVENING, LEADING TO A PERIOD OF WIND SHEAR FROM AROUND 02Z THROUGH
06Z OR SO, BEFORE THOSE STRONGER WINDS MAKE IT DOWN TO THE SURFACE.
GUSTY WESTERLY AND NORTHWESTERLY WINDS LOOK TO PERSIST LATE INTO THE
PERIOD.
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 3 AM MST THURSDAY
FOR COZ058-060-061-081-082.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM MST THIS
EVENING FOR COZ222-226>237.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3 AM MST
THURSDAY FOR COZ077>080-083>088.
SHORT TERM...EHR
LONG TERM...PETERSEN
AVIATION...EHR
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