432
FXUS65 KPUB 180553
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1053 PM MST WED DEC 17 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE HIGH COUNTRY
AND I-25 CORRIDOR THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. BLOWING SNOW IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS, AS WELL AS PATCHY
BLOWING DUST FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.
- HIGH FIRE DANGER TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE PLAINS UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING,
THEN REDEVELOP ALONG THE EASTERN BORDER THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AGAIN FOR FRIDAY ON
THE PLAINS.
- BRIEF COOL DOWN THURSDAY, THEN VERY WARM FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
BEFORE ANOTHER MINOR COOL OFF ON SUNDAY. QUICK PEAK AT THE
HOLIDAY WEEK FROM MONDAY ONWARD SUGGESTS WARM AND DRY WEATHER
CONTINUING.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 606 PM MST WED DEC 17 2025
WHILE POCKETS OF GUSTY WINDS ARE STILL EXPECTED THROUGH THE
EVENING AS A STRONG JET STREAK PUSHES OVER, HUMIDITY VALUES HAVE
STEADILY INCREASE AS TEMPERATURES COOL. GIVEN THIS, THE RED FLAG
WARNING THAT WAS IN PLACE FOR THE EASTERN PLAINS TODAY HAS BEEN
ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 200 PM MST WED DEC 17 2025
CURRENTLY...BUSY DAY TODAY WITH LOTS OF MOVING PARTS. UPPER SYSTEM
TRACKING EAST ALONG THE NORTHERN MT BORDER, AND THE ASSOCIATED UPPER
JET CARVING UP THE SOUTHERN END OF THIS SYSTEM, WAS STARTING TO
PRODUCE STRONG AND GUSTY WEST WINDS ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND
ADJACENT PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD GUSTS OF 45-55 MPH WERE
BEING REPORTED AT HIGHER SITES, WITH 30-40 MPH AT MULTIPLE LOWER
ELEVATION SITES. TEMPS AS OF 1 PM HAVE WARMED INTO THE MID 40S TO
MID 50S FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS, AND 60S TO LOWER 70S FOR THE PLAINS.
PUEBLO IS ACTUALLY THE COOL SPOT SO FAR AT 60F SINCE THE LOWER
LEVELS HAVE NOT MIXED OUT YET, BUT STRONGER WEST WINDS AND 10 DEGREE
WARMER AIR IS JUST 10 MILES TO THE WEST.
TONIGHT...UPPER SYSTEM TO THE NORTH CONTINUES PUSHING EAST TONIGHT
AND DIPS TO THE SOUTHEAST, WHILE THE UPPER JET WITH A 175 KT CORE
NOSES INTO CENTRAL CO. THIS WILL CAUSE OF A NUMBER OF THINGS. FIRST,
WIDESPREAD STRONG AND POSSIBLY DAMAGING WINDS ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS AS WELL AS THE I-25 CORRIDOR, WITH THE MOST FAVORABLE
TIME WINDOW LASTING FROM APPROX 3 PM UNTIL 8 PM. GUSTS TO 80 MPH FOR
THE MTS, AND 60 MPH FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS, ARE EXPECTED, THOUGH
SOME HI-RES GUIDANCE IS SHOWING HIGHER GUSTS. A SECONDARY ROUND OF
POSSIBLE DAMAGING WIND COULD OCCUR DUE TO MT WAVE DYNAMICS EARLY
TOMORROW MORNING IN THE 4 AM TO 7 AM TIME FRAME, SO WENT AHEAD AND
EXTENDED THE HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 AM FOR ALL AREAS.
SECOND, 2-5 INCHES OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL
MTS WILL BE POSSIBLE, AND WITH SUCH STRONG WINDS, NEAR WHITE-OUT
CONDITIONS ARE A DEFINITE POSSIBILITY. CARE SHOULD TAKEN IF TRAVEL
IN THESE AREAS ARE NECESSARY TONIGHT.
THIRD, ONGOING RED FLAG WARNING WILL CONTINUE UNTIL 6 PM. THOUGH THE
WINDS WILL STILL BE STRONG AT THAT TIME, TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
COOLING BY THEN ALLOWING FOR RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS TO CLIMB.
FINALLY, THE STRONG WINDS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WILL PRODUCE
AREAS OF BLOWING DUST, ESPECIALLY IN THOSE AREAS ACROSS THE PLAINS
THAT PERHAPS DID NOT SEE SOME OF THAT BENEFICIAL MOISTURE FROM THE
SNOW A COUPLE WEEKS AGO.
PLAN ON OVERNIGHT MINIMUMS IN THE 20S TO AROUND 30F FOR THE HIGH
VALLEYS, TEENS IN THE HEART OF THE SAN LUIS VALLEY, AND UPPER 20S TO
UPPER 30S FOR THE PLAINS.
A SURFACE COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE PALMER DIVIDE AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT, SETTING THE STAGE FOR TOMORROW.
THURSDAY...THE UPPER LOW WRAPS UP TIGHTLY AS IT TRACKS ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS AND INTO MN, KEEPING WINDY CONDITIONS IN PLACE FOR THE
EASTERN PLAINS. BRISK AND GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS ARE
FORECAST ACROSS THE PLAINS, THOUGH THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE
CLOSER TO THE EASTERN BORDER. THOUGH COOLER THANKS TO THE COLD
FRONT, CONDITIONS WILL STILL BE DRY, SO DECIDED TO ISSUE A RED FLAG
WARNING FOR KIOWA, BENT, PROWERS AND BACA COUNTIES FROM 11 AM UNTIL
5 PM. HELD OFF ON A HIGH WIND HIGHLIGHT SINCE THE WIND SPEEDS SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW WARNING CRITERIA. ALSO, JUST LIKE WED NIGHT, WENT AHEAD
AND MENTIONED PATCHY BLOWING DUST FOR THE EAST DUE TO THE FORECAST
WINDS. PLAN ON HIGHS IN THE 40S FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS, AND MID 40S TO
LOWER 50S FOR THE PLAINS. MOORE
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 210 AM MST WED DEC 17 2025
WARM AIR RETURNS ON FRIDAY UNDER BRISK WLY FLOW ALOFT AND
RISING MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES, AND MANY LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL
REACH THE 60S/70S FOR MAXES BY LATE DAY. LEE SURFACE TROUGH ON
THE PLAINS AND STRONG FLOW ALOFT (30-40 KTS AT 700MB) SUGGEST
AFTERNOON WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY AND STRONG, LEADING TO ANOTHER
DAY OF ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ON THE PLAINS.
DEWPOINTS DO RISE SLIGHTLY BACK INTO THE TEENS AND 20S, WHICH
WILL MAKE MINIMUM HUMIDITY MARGINAL ONCE AGAIN, SO WILL HOLD OFF
ON ANY HIGHLIGHTS, THOUGH SUSPECT DEEPLY MIXED AREAS SOUTH OF
THE ARKANSAS RIVER WILL BE AT LEAST CLOSE TO CRITICAL FOR MUCH
OF THE DAY. SIMILAR SET-UP FOR SAT, THOUGH WEAK FRONT BACKS
WESTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS IN THE AFTERNOON, SHAVING A FEW DEGF
OFF OF MAX TEMPS AND HELPING LIMIT FIRE DANGER SLIGHTLY. CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS COULD SEE SOME SNOW SHOWERS SAT AS WAVE BRUSHES BY TO
THE NORTH, THOUGH ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT. AFTER A
COOLER DAY ON SUNDAY, WARM, DRY AND BREEZY WEATHER RETURNS FOR
MUCH OF THE HOLIDAY WEEK, AS BROAD UPPER RIDGE MIGRATES FROM THE
ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1053 PM MST WED DEC 17 2025
KCOS, KPUB, AND KALS: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT
HOURS, THOUGH WILL START TO LESSEN BY EARLY MORNING. LOW-LEVEL WIND
SHEAR IS STILL ANTICIPATED FOR KALS AS THE JET STREAK PUSHES OVER.
THERE MAY BE BRIEF PERIODS OF LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR OVER KCOS AND
KPUB AS WELL, THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW (20%) IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
IT AT THIS TIME, SO HAVE LEFT IT OUT OF THE OFFICIAL TAF PRODUCT.
OTHERWISE, DRY CONDITIONS WITH POCKETS OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS IS
EXPECTED FOR THIS TAF PERIOD.
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 AM MST THURSDAY FOR COZ058-060-061-
076>088.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 5 PM MST THURSDAY FOR
COZ234>237.
UPDATE...SIMCOE
SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...PETERSEN
AVIATION...SIMCOE
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