085
FXUS65 KPUB 181127
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
427 AM MST THU DEC 18 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- STRONG WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE LATER THIS MORNING; STRONGEST
WINDS IN MTNS AND EAST SLOPES OF MOUNTAINOUS AREAS
- RED FLAG WARNINGS FOR FAR EASTERN PLAINS TODAY, FIRE WEATHER WATCH
TOMORROW FOR PARTS OF THE PLAINS.
- PATTERN CHANGE LIKELY TOWARDS CHRISTMAS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 146 AM MST THU DEC 18 2025
CURRENTLY...
ALTHOUGH WINDS HAVE COME DOWN SOMEWHAT OVER THE REGION EARLY THIS
AM, SOME AREAS WERE STILL GUSTING IN THE 40 TO 60 MPH RANGE. IT
WAS STILL VERY MILD OVER MOST OF THE REGION WITH 40S OVER MOST
OF THE PLAINS AND 20S AND 30S OVER THE MTNS. WEBCAMS AND
OBSERVERS INDICATE WIND DRIVEN LIGHT SNOW WAS OCCURRING OVER THE
CENTRAL MTN REGION.
TODAY...
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE STRONG, MAINLY IN THE MTNS AND EAST
SLOPE OF THE MTNS THROUGH MID MORNING. BY LATE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON, WINDS OVER THE MTNS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE, HOWEVER
OVER THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN PLAINS WINDS WILL PICK UP. RH VALUES
WILL DECREASE OVER THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS AND RED FLAG
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME LIKELY AS WINDS WILL BE GUSTING TO 40 TO
60 MPH WITH RH VALUES IN THE 12 TO 17% RANGE. THE STRONGEST
WINDS OVER THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS WILL LIKELY OCCUR AROUND THE
NOONTIME HOUR, AND THEN SLOWLY DECREASE.
AS FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER TODAY, MAX TEMPS WILL BE COOLER WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE U40S T0 L50S PLAINS, M40S IN THE SAN LUIS VALLEY
AND 20S AND 30S MTNS. SNOW SHOWERS IN THE CENTRAL MTNS WILL END BY
MID MORNING, BUT MAY START TO PICK UP ONCE AGAIN TOWARDS SUNSET.
TONIGHT...
SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN LAKE COUNTY, OTHERWISE EXPECT DRY
CONDITIONS OVER THE FCST AREA. WIND IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL ONCE AGAIN
PICK UP, BUT WILL NOT BE AS STRONG AS WHAT WE HAD IN THE LAST 24
HOURS. WIND GUSTS TO 50 TO 60 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
MOUNTAINTOP BY SUNRISE FRIDAY MORNING.
FRIDAY...
DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY WITH VERY WARM CONDITIONS LIKELY (M70S PARTS OF PLAINS).
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE PASSABLE. WITH THE BREEZY TO
WINDY CONDITIONS LIKELY, RED FLAG CONDITIONS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE
POSSIBLE, AND A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PARTS OF
THE PLAINS FOR FRIDAY. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS WATCH MAY NEED
TO BE EXPANDED IN LATER FORECAST UPDATES. \/HODANISH
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 146 AM MST THU DEC 18 2025
PERUSING DESI GUIDANCE, TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS. A BIT OF A COOLDOWN IS
LIKELY SUNDAY, BUT TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN BE 15-20
DEGREES OR SO ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH CHRISTMAS. ALTHOUGH WE MAY
SEE A FEW PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTNS, NO
APPRECIABLE ACCUMULATIONS ARE ANTICIPATED.
BEYOND CHRISTMAS, THERE APPEARS TO BE SIGNALS IN THE LONGER TERM
GUIDANCE THAT THE FLOW PATTERN WILL SHIFT TO MORE SOUTHWESTERLY
AS BROAD TROUGHIENESS DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS, AND THIS
WILL FINALLY BRING A BETTER CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO THE
MOUNTAINS AFTER THE CHRISTMAS HOLIDAY. \/HODANISH
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 424 AM MST THU DEC 18 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT ALL 3 TAF
SITES, KPUB, KALS AND KCOS.
FOR KALS, THERE MAY BE SOME WIND SHEAR ISSUES AT THE BEGINNING
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
FOR KCOS. SOME GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE
FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY GO UPSLOPE AROUND 1800
UTC TODAY.
FOR KPUB, LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED, ALTHOUGH WE COULD SEE A BRIEF
GUSTS AT THE VERY BEGINNING OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 AM MST THIS MORNING FOR COZ058-060-
061-076>088.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON FOR COZ226>232-235.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM MST THIS
AFTERNOON FOR COZ234>237.
SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...HODANISH
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