586
FXUS65 KPUB 182136
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
236 PM MST THU DEC 18 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ANOTHER WAVE MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO TO BRING BREEZY TO
WINDY CONDITIONS AND OVER AND NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN FRIDAY.
- HIGH FIRE DANGER FRIDAY.
- CONTINUED WESTERLY FLOW BRINGS SNOW CHANCES TO THE CENTRAL MTNS
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH AT AND ABOVE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES
INTO CHRISTMAS WEEK.
- PATTERN CHANGE LIKELY TOWARDS CHRISTMAS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 231 PM MST THU DEC 18 2025
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES
MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION, WITH
AND EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE CONTINUING TO LIFT OUT ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HIGH PLAINS. WINDS ALOFT SLOWLY DIMINISHING, WITH BREEZY NORTHERLY
WINDS CONTINUING ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON,
WHILE RELAXING AND BECOMING MORE UPSLOPE ACROSS THE I-25 CORRIDOR.
TEMPERATURES ARE MUCH COOLER IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 50S ACROSS THE
PLAINS, WITH MAINLY 20S AND 30S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW, WESTERLY FLOW INCREASES AGAIN OVERNIGHT
AND THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY, AS NEXT EMBEDDED WAVE MOVES ACROSS
NORTHERN COLORADO. INCREASING FLOW WILL BRING STRONGER WINDS ACROSS
THE HIGHER PEAKS, WITH WINDS OF 50-70 MPH POSSIBLE ABOVE 11K FEET
THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY. WHILE LATEST MODEL DATA IS NOT SUPPORT OF
A STRONG DOWNSLOPE MOUNTAIN WAVE, LEE TROUGHING AND MIXING WILL
BRING BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS DOWN ACROSS THE I-25 CORRIDOR, IN WHICH
WE HAVE UPGRADED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH TO A RED FLAG WARNING, AND
ADDED TELLER COUNTY AND FREMONT COUNTY AS WELL. TEMPERATURES COOL
QUICKLY THROUGH THE EVENING, WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING OVER AND NEAR
THE HIGHER TERRAIN EARLY FRIDAY MORNING, WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S TO
LOWER 70S ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE PLAINS, WITH 30S, 40S AND 50S ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
CURRENT RECORDS FOR DECEMBER 19TH ARE 56F AT ALS IN 1955, 67F AT COS
IN 2023, AND 70F AT PUB IN 1917.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 146 AM MST THU DEC 18 2025
PASSING WAVE TO BRING SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH BREEZY TO WINDY WESTERLY WINDS
SPREADING ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT, KEEPING OVER
NIGHT LOWS MILD INTO SATURDAY MORNING, WITH ANOTHER WEAK
BACKDOOR FRONT SPREADING SLIGHLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE REGION ON SATURDAY.
PERUSING DESI GUIDANCE, TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS. A BIT OF A COOLDOWN IS
LIKELY SUNDAY, BUT TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN BE 15-20
DEGREES OR SO ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH CHRISTMAS. ALTHOUGH WE MAY
SEE A FEW PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTNS, NO
APPRECIABLE ACCUMULATIONS ARE ANTICIPATED.
BEYOND CHRISTMAS, THERE APPEARS TO BE SIGNALS IN THE LONGER TERM
GUIDANCE THAT THE FLOW PATTERN WILL SHIFT TO MORE SOUTHWESTERLY
AS BROAD TROUGHIENESS DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS, AND THIS
WILL FINALLY BRING A BETTER CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO THE
MOUNTAINS AFTER THE CHRISTMAS HOLIDAY. \/HODANISH
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1012 AM MST THU DEC 18 2025
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT COS, PUB AND ALS OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. BREEZY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS AT COS AND PUB EARLY
THIS MORNING, WILL/HAVE BECOME GENERALLY LIGHT EAST TO
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. INCREASING
NORTHWEST FLOW TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER WAVE COULD
DEVELOP WS AT COS AND PUB EARLY FRIDAY MORNING, BEFORE WINDS
MIX OUT LEADING TO BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS 15-25KT AT THE
TERMINALS FRIDAY MORNING. WINDS AT ALS TO BE MAINLY NORTHERLY
TODAY, BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 5 PM MST FRIDAY FOR COZ221-222-
226>233-235.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COZ234>237.
SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...MW/HODANISH
AVIATION...MW
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