668
FXUS65 KPUB 200304
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
804 PM MST FRI DEC 19 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- STRONG WEST WINDS TO CONTINUE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN, WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG DOWNSLOPE WINDS INTO THE PIKES PEAK
REGION EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
- SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE CENTRAL MTNS
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY.
- WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
- A POSSIBLE PATTERN SHIFT, AT LEAST FOR THE MOUNTAINS, LOOKS TO
ARRIVE AROUND CHRISTMAS OR SO.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 803 PM MST FRI DEC 19 2025
WHILE SPOTTY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS, WIDESPREAD CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NO LONGER EXPECTED AS WINDS LESSEN
AND HUMIDITY VALUES SLOWLY INCREASE. GIVEN THIS, THE REMAINDER
OF THE RED FLAG WARNING IN PLACE HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 236 PM MST FRI DEC 19 2025
STRONG WESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE ROCKIES, WITH GUSTS OF
60 TO 70 MPH STILL BEING REPORTED ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
THE CENTRAL MTNS INTO THE PIKES PEAK REGION AND PORTIONS OF THE
SANGRE DE CRISTO MTNS. LOWER ELEVATIONS HAVE ALSO MIXED OUT,
WITH BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS GUSTING TO 35 MPH CURRENTLY AT PUB,
WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 74F, WHICH WILL SET A NEW RECORD HIGH FOR
DECEMBER 19TH. FURTHER EAST, LAA HAS NOT MIXED OUT WITH A LIGHT
EAST WIND AND CURRENT TEMPERATURE OF 59F. CURRENT RED FLAG
WARNINGS OVER AND NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN INTO THE I-25 CORRIDOR
LOOK GOOD, WITH THE BREEZY CONDITIONS AND RHS IN THE 10 TO 15
PERCENT RANGE AT THIS TIME.
CONCERNS FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW REMAIN THE STRONG WESTERLY WINDS,
WHICH WILL SLACKEN SOME THROUGH THE EVENING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN,
THOUGH PICK UP AGAIN OVERNIGHT, AS THE NEXT EMBEDDED WAVE ACROSS THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST TRANSLATES ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. WITH THAT
SAID, WE ARE KEEPING THE HIGH WIND WARNING IN PLACE THROUGH 12Z
SATURDAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTNS, NORTHERN SANGRES AND INTO THE
RAMPART RANGE. LATEST MODEL DATA IS ALSO INDICATING THE POTENTIAL
FOR STRONG DOWNSLOPE WINDS TO PUSH DOWN THE LOWER EASTERN SLOPES OF
THE RAMPART RANGE INTO WESTERN EL PASO COUNTY AND ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTOS INTO WESTERN HUERFANO AND LAS ANIMAS
COUNTIES. HOWEVER, IT LOOKS TO BE A BRIEF WINDOW BETWEEN 6Z-12Z
WHERE THE MTN WAVE COULD BREAK, BEFORE LIFTING BACK UP ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR CONDITIONS,
FOR POSSIBLE INCLUSION INTO A HIGH WIND WARNING.
INCREASING MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE NEXT WAVE WILL DEVELOP SNOW ACROSS
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MTNS LATE TONIGHT, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
HAZARDOUS TRAVEL IN SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY
ON SATURDAY. THESE CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE GENERALLY NORTH OF
COTTONWOOD PASS, WHERE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN PLACE THROUGH
THE DAY TOMORROW.
OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE VERY MILD, IN THE 30S AND 40S ACROSS
THE PLAINS, AND MAINLY 20S AND 30S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE NEXT
PASSING WAVE WILL SEND A WEAK FRONT ACROSS THE PLAINS THROUGH THE DAY
TOMORROW, WITH WINDS SLOWING BECOMING EASTERLY UPSLOPE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON, WHICH WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60S ACROSS THE PLAINS,
WARMEST OVER AND NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN, WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S, 40S
AND 50S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 218 AM MST FRI DEC 19 2025
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY..
WE COOL BACK DOWN MUCH CLOSER TO CLIMATE NORMALS FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY, WITH LOWS BACK INTO THE TEENS FOR
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS AND 20S FOR THE PLAINS AS WINDS CONTINUE TO WEAKEN.
DAYTIME HIGHS REMAIN WARMER THAN NORMAL, BUT WILL AGAIN BE COOLER
THAN SATURDAY. MOST LOCATIONS LOOK TO WARM INTO THE 50S, WITH A FEW
60S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WILL LIKELY
SEE A FEW MORE SNOW FLURRIES WITH CONTINUED WESTERLY FLOW, THOUGH
ACCUMULATIONS ON SUNDAY WILL BE MINIMAL.
MONDAY ONWARDS..
GUIDANCE POINTS TOWARDS THE RETURN OF WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
IN THE 60S TO 70S RANGE FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS BROAD
SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASES OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL BRING IN THE
POTENTIAL FOR MORE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER OVER PORTIONS OF THE
PLAINS, AND WILL KEEP BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS OVER OUR EASTERN
MOUNTAINS THROUGH MUCH OF THIS PERIOD. MODELS HINT AT A PATTERN
SHIFT BY AROUND THE LATE WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY TIMEFRAME, AS DECENT
MOISTURE BEGINS TO ACCOMPANY OUR SOUTHWEST FLOW THOUGH. THIS WILL AT
LEAST HELP TO BRING IN SNOW CHANCES FOR OUR WESTERN MOUNTAINS. IT
WILL ALSO LIKELY BRING IN SOME CLOUD COVER FOR THE REST US, WHICH
SHOULD HELP TO TAKE THE EDGE OFF OUR TEMPERATURES AND OUR FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS TOWARDS THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 417 PM MST FRI DEC 19 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KALS, KCOS, AND KPUB THROUGH 24
HOURS, THOUGH STRONG WINDS JUST ABOVE THE DECK MAY BE CAUSE FOR
CONCERN.
KALS: GUSTY WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS, AROUND 25 KNOTS, WILL PERSIST INTO
THIS EVENING, WEAKENING OVERNIGHT. INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON, WEST-
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PICK UP TO AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH AN INCREASE TO
MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER
KCOS AND KPUB: STRONG WEST WINDS GUSTING 35-40 KNOTS WILL LINGER
INTO THE EVENING HOURS. DURING THE OVERNIGHT, STARTING BY 03-05Z,
DATA SHOWS ENOUGH OF A SIGNAL TO INCLUDE LLWS IN BOTH TAFS INTO THE
MID-LATE MORNING ON SATURDAY. WINDS AT THE SURFACE ARE CURRENTLY
EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 10-15 KNOTS, WITH WINDS AT 2 KFT OUT OF THE
WEST 35-40 KNOTS, WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE. INVERSIONS
SHOULD MIX OUT MID-LATE MORNING ON SATURDAY, BRINGING GUSTS BACK
DOWN TOWARDS THE SURFACE.
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 5 PM MST SATURDAY FOR
COZ058-060.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 5 AM MST SATURDAY FOR COZ060-061-063-
072-073-076-081-082.
UPDATE...
SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...EHR
AVIATION...GARBEROGLIO
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