325
FXUS65 KPUB 200935
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
235 AM MST SAT DEC 20 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SOME WIND DRIVEN SNOW IN THE CENTRAL MTNS TODAY.
- VERY WARM ON THE PLAINS THROUGH CHRISTMAS, TRENDING COOLER AT THE
END OF THE PERIOD.
- PATTERN SHIFT IS EXPECTED TO BRING INCREASING SNOW CHANCES IN THE
MOUNTAINS TOWARDS CHRISTMAS.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 206 AM MST SAT DEC 20 2025
CURRENTLY...
STRONG ZONAL FLOW REMAINS OVER THE REGION, AND THIS COMBINED WITH
SOME MOISTURE IS BRINGING SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS. AS TYPICAL WITH THIS SYSTEMS, MOST OF THE SNOW IS FALLING
GENERALLY IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN LAKE COUNTY, GENERALLY NORTH
OF COTTONWOOD PASS.
THE DOWNSLOPING ZONAL FLOW IS SHOWING UP IN THE DATA ALONG THE
MTNS/PLAINS INTERFACE AS TEMPS IN THE "BANANA BELT" REGIONS WELL IN
THE MID 50S VERY EARLY THIS SATURDAY MORNING, WITH 30S AND 40S
FURTHER EAST. TEMPS IN THE MTNS WERE ALSO A BIT ON THE WARM SIDE
WITH U20S AND 30S NOTED.
TODAY...
COLDER AIR ALOFT WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION AND TEMPS IN THE MTNS WILL
COOL OFF. WITH THE BAROCLINICITY MOVING OVER THE REGION, SNOW SHOULD
PICK UP OVER THE CENTRAL MTNS, AND EXPECT THE HEAVIER SNOW TO FALL
LATER THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. 3 TO 5 INCHES WILL BE THE
PRIMARY ACCUMULATIONS, BUT A FEW HIGHER AMOUNTS APPROACHING 10 INCHES
MAY FALL ON THE NW SLOPES IN WESTERN LAKE COUNTY. SNOW IN LEADVILLE
PROPER ISN'T EXPECT TO AMOUNT TO MUCH, MAYBE AN INCH OR TWO AT BEST.
OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION WILL BE DRY TODAY.
AS FOR THE WINDS, WE WILL SEE WINDS DECREASING AS THE DAY GOES ON,
BUT IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE WINDY EARLY THIS MORNING IN THE MOUNTAINS
GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF US50. FOR THE PLAINS, EXPECT UPSLOPE
FLOW TO DEVELOP OVER MOST OF THE PLAINS AS A BACK DOOR COOL FRONT
MOVES INTO THE REGION. THIS FRONT WILL IMPACT MOST OF THE PLAINS,
BUT AREAS IN THE GREATER TRINIDAD/RATON MESA REGION WILL NOT BE
IMPACTED MUCH BY THIS FRONT, AND IT WILL BE THIS REGION THAT WILL
SEE THE WARMEST TEMPS TODAY; WITH READINGS IN THE U60S. FURTHER EAST
TEMPS WILL BE A BIT COOLER WITH HIGHS ONLY AROUND 50 IN EASTERN
KIOWA COUNTY. SPRINGS AND PUEBLO SHOULD SEE MAX TEMPS U50S TO L60S.
VALLEYS TODAY SHOULD SEE 50S TODAY.
TONIGHT...
STARTING THIS EVENING, THE MID LEVEL GRADIENT WILL FINALLY START TO
RELAX OVER THE REGION, AND THIS WILL PUT AN END TO THE WINDS. TEMPS
WILL COOL OFF REGION-WIDE (NO STRONGER DOWNSLOPE) AND MINS WILL DRIP
INTO THE 20S MOST OF THE PLAINS WITH TEMPS AROUND 20 IN THE LARGER
VALLEYS. 10S AND 20S MTNS. AN Y REMAINING SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
CENTRAL MTNS WILL COME TO AN END EARLY \/HODANISH
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 206 AM MST SAT DEC 20 2025
WELL, THERE IS GOOD AND BAD (WEATHER) NEWS IN THE LONG RANGE. THE
BAD NEWS IS IT IS NOT GOING TO FEEL LIKE CHRISTMAS OVER THE PLAINS
THIS WEEK. THE JET IS GOING TO REMAIN TO OUR NORTH OVER WYOMING
AND MID LEVEL FLOW IS GOING TO COME OUT OF THE WEST-SOUTHWEST. MAX
TEMPS OVER THE PLAINS ON SUNDAY IN THE 55 - 65 RANGE WILL BE
REPLACES BY TEMPS IN THE 60S AND 70S (WITH POSSIBLY AT 80 HERE AND
THERE) THROUGH THIS WEEK. THESE TEMPS ARE RIDICULOUSLY WAY ABOVE
NORMAL AS MAX TEMPS ON THE PLAINS SHOULD TYPICALLY BE IN THE 40S. I
EXPECT WE WILL SEE SOME RECORDS FALL CHRISTMAS WEEK, WITH THE
WARMEST TEMPS THIS MONDAY.
THE GOOD NEWS IS MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING WITH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW
AND THE MOUNTAINS ALONG ALL OF THE CONTDVD SHOULD SEE SNOW START
TO RAMP UP PERUSING THE DESI GUIDANCE SHOWS THE SNOW STARTING TO
RAMP UP CHRISTMAS EVE ALONG THE DIVIDE AND LASTING INTO THE WEEKEND.
OVERALL AMOUNTS DONT LOOK ALL THAT HIGH(UP TO 2 FEET THROUGH XMAS-EVE
INTO THE WEEKEND), BUT ANY ACCUMULATING SNOW IS GOOD SNOW IN THE
MOUNTAINS.
IT DOES APPEAR IT WILL CONTINUE TO GET MORE "TROUGHY" OVER THE WEST
XMAS WEEKEND INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEK, AND COOLER, POSSIBLY WETTER
WEATHER SHOULD MOVE INTO ALL OF THE REGION. \/HODANISH
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1027 PM MST FRI DEC 19 2025
KCOS AND KPUB: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
BREEZY WINDS THIS EVENING WILL STEADILY LESSEN AND BECOME LIGHTER
OVERNIGHT. WITH THAT SAID THOUGH, WINDS AROUND 1,500 TO 2,000 AGL
WILL STILL BE RACING OVER THE TAF SITES, LEADING TO LOW-LEVEL WIND
SHEAR THROUGH EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. IN ADDITION, THERE IS A CHANCE
THAT DOWNSLOPING WINDS DEVELOP OFF OF PIKES PEAK AROUND 12Z AND
IMPACT KCOS, BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS VERY LOW (10-20%) AT THIS
TIME. OTHERWISE, DRY CONDITIONS WITH POCKETS OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD.
KALS: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT, AROUND AND LESS THAN 10 KNOTS,
THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD. BEYOND THAT, DRY CONDITIONS WITH POCKETS OF
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS IS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD.
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
COZ058-060.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 5 AM MST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR COZ060-
061-063-072-073-076-081-082.
SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...SIMCOE
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