933
FXUS65 KPUB 211726
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1026 AM MST SUN DEC 21 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- VERY WARM ON THE PLAINS THROUGH FRIDAY, TRENDING COOLER AT THE END
OF THE PERIOD; DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE PLAINS THROUGHOUT.
- ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ALONG THE MTNS/PLAINS
GAP FLOW INTERFACE AREAS MONDAY.
- PERIODS OF SNOW BECOMING POSSIBLE MAINLY ALONG THE DIVIDE STARTING
CHRISTMAS EVE LASTING INTO THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 159 AM MST SUN DEC 21 2025
CURRENTLY...
BESIDES SOME PASSING HIGH CLOUDS OVER PARTS OF THE AREA, SKIES WERE
CLEAR OVER THE REGION. TEMPS WERE NOTICEABLY COOLER OVER THE REGION
AS ALL OF THE PLAINS WERE IN THE 20S WITH A FEW TENS OVER THE FAR
EASTERN PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING. A FEW 30S AND 40S WERE NOTED
IMMEDIATELY EAST OF SOME OF THE MTNS. THE SAN LUIS VALLEY WAS
RELATIVELY WARM WITH 30S AND A 40 OR TWO ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE
VALLEY FLOOR.
TODAY...
OVERALL, A RELATIVELY MILD DAY IS EXPECTED TODAY OVER THE REGION.
WARMEST AIR WILL BE OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE RATON MESA
REGION WHERE UPPER 60S ARE EXPECTED OVER THE TRINIDAD REGION WHILE
50S AND 60S WILL ARE EXPECTED OVER THE REST OF THE PLAINS. LARGER
VALLEYS WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S; MTNS 30S. IT WILL BE DRY.
WINDS WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT. PASSING HIGH CLOUDS LIKELY.
TONIGHT...
WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL PICK UP ACROSS THE REGION AS A LEE
TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE PLAINS. TEMPS WILL BE NOTICEABLY WARMER
ACROSS THE PLAINS TONIGHT WITH 40S OVER THE MTNS/PLAINS BANANA BELT
REGION AND OVER THE RATON MESA REGION, 30S WILL OCCUR OVER THE LOWER
ARK RVR VALLEY FROM PUEBLO EAST TO THE KS BORDER. SAN LUIS VALLEY
WILL LIKELY BE THE COLDEST LOCATION TONIGHT WITH READINGS AROUND 20
ON THE VALLEY FLOOR. PASSING HIGH CLOUDS LIKELY. \/HODANISH
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 159 AM MST SUN DEC 21 2025
MONDAY...
MAIN CONCERN THIS DAY IS SOME ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. IT IS
GOING TO BE WARM AND RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE POSSIBE.
BREEZY SURFACE WEST WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED AND GAP FLOW AREAS WILL
LIKELY SEE THE STRONGEST WEST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH. RH VALUES WILL
FALL TO AROUND CRITICAL VALUES (15%). OVER THE PLAINS, EXPECTED MAX
TEMPS TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S OVER EL PASO COUNTY TO AROUND 80
OVER BACA COUNTY. SAN LUIS VALLEY WILL BE IN THE 50S. THESE TEMPS
WILL BE AT OR CLOSE TO RECORD VALUES.
TUESDAY...
WE WILL COOL OF A BIT BUT WILL STILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL. 60S TO
AROUND 70 ARE EXPECTED OVER THE PLAINS WITH AROUND 50 IN THE VALLEY.
WINDS WILL BE MORE DIURNAL THIS DAY AND RH VALUES WILL BE HIGHER SO
NO FIRE WX ISSUES EXPECTED.
CHRISTMAS EVE AND CHRISTMAS....
PLAINS: DRY AND WARM. MID 60S TO MID 70S. SOME VERY SPOTTY ELEVATED
WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE POSSIBLE THESE TWO DAYS.
IN THE MOUNTAINS, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE DIVIDE, WE WILL SEE
INCREASING MOISTURE, AND EXPECT TO SEE SNOW OVER THE MOUNTAINS WITH
SOME VALLEY RAIN SHOWERS DURING DAYLIGHT HOURS IN THE VALLEY FLOOR
REGIONS. PERUSING THE DESI DATA FOR THE WOLF CREEK AREA SHOWS SNOW
SHOULD START TO PICK UP DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF CHRISTMAS
EVE AND CONTINUE THROUGH CHRISTMAS DAY. IT APPEARS STEADY, MAINLY
LIGHT SNOW WILL FALL OVER THE DIVIDE DURING THIS PERIOD. THERE WILL
LIKELY BE SOME TRAVEL IMPACTS BUT THEY SHOULD NOT BE ALL THAT
CONCERNING AS WINDS LOOK RELATIVELY LIGHT AND SNOW INTENSITY DOES
NOT APPEAR TO BE ALL THAT HIGH.
SAN LUIS VALLEY COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS, WITH M50S FOR MAX TEMPS.
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...
PERIODS OF SNOW ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE DIVIDE. MAIN
CHANGE DURING THIS PERIOD IS THE PLAINS SHOULD START TO TREND
TOWARDS COOLER TEMPS (50S). HOWEVER IT APPEARS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS
WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN DRY.
OVERALL, DESI IS SHOWING 2-3" OF LIQUID WATER EQUIVALENT OVER THE SW
MTNS FROM WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, AND THIS SHOULD LEAD TO A
COUPLE FEET OF SNOW OVER THIS REGION. OTHER AREAS OF THE DIVIDE ARE
SHOWING 0.5 TO 1 INCH LWE. \/HODANISH
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1025 AM MST SUN DEC 21 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KALS, KCOS, AND KPUB THROUGH 24
HOURS. BREEZY SOUTHEAST WINDS AT KCOS AND KPUB WILL TURN MORE WEST-
NORTHWESTERLY OVERNIGHT, WITH MID-LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING IN AND OUT
INTO EARLY MONDAY. WINDS AT KALS SHOULD STAY LIGHT AND DIURNALLY
DRIVEN.
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...GARBEROGLIO
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