811
FXUS65 KPUB 220505
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1005 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- VERY WARM ON THE PLAINS THROUGH FRIDAY, TRENDING COOLER AT THE END
OF THE PERIOD; DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE PLAINS THROUGHOUT.
- ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ALONG THE MTNS/PLAINS
GAP FLOW INTERFACE AREAS MONDAY.
- PERIODS OF SNOW BECOMING POSSIBLE MAINLY ALONG THE DIVIDE
STARTING CHRISTMAS EVE LASTING INTO THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 229 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2025
BREEZY ZONAL FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION. LOOKING THROUGH
THE REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT, RELATIVELY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE. GIVEN THE HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF DOWNSLOPING ONTO THE
EASTERN PLAINS, OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN LAST
NIGHT'S, WITH 30S TO LOW 40S, WHILE THE HIGH VALLEYS AND MOUNTAINS
REMAIN IN THE 20S TO NEAR FREEZING.
FOR MONDAY, THE WESTERLY FLOW OVER THE REGION WILL INCREASE, LEADING
TO MORE FREQUENT GUSTS, AS WELL AS SOME POTENTIAL FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS. SPOTTY CRITICAL CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR A FEW
HOURS DURING THE AFTERNOON, BUT THE WINDS WILL ONLY BE MET IN GAP
FLOW AREAS, WITH COVERAGE TOO SPOTTY FOR ANY HIGHLIGHTS AT THIS
TIME. MEANWHILE, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GREATLY INCREASE OVER THE
AREA, WITH 60S-70S OVER THE PLAINS AND HIGH-50S FOR THE VALLEYS.
SEVERAL AREAS WILL APPROACH RECORD VALUES.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 159 AM MST SUN DEC 21 2025
TUESDAY...
WE WILL COOL OF A BIT BUT WILL STILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL. 60S TO
AROUND 70 ARE EXPECTED OVER THE PLAINS WITH AROUND 50 IN THE VALLEY.
WINDS WILL BE MORE DIURNAL THIS DAY AND RH VALUES WILL BE HIGHER SO
NO FIRE WX ISSUES EXPECTED.
CHRISTMAS EVE AND CHRISTMAS....
PLAINS: DRY AND WARM. MID 60S TO MID 70S. SOME VERY SPOTTY ELEVATED
WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE POSSIBLE THESE TWO DAYS.
IN THE MOUNTAINS, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE DIVIDE, WE WILL SEE
INCREASING MOISTURE, AND EXPECT TO SEE SNOW OVER THE MOUNTAINS WITH
SOME VALLEY RAIN SHOWERS DURING DAYLIGHT HOURS IN THE VALLEY FLOOR
REGIONS. PERUSING THE DESI DATA FOR THE WOLF CREEK AREA SHOWS SNOW
SHOULD START TO PICK UP DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF CHRISTMAS
EVE AND CONTINUE THROUGH CHRISTMAS DAY. IT APPEARS STEADY, MAINLY
LIGHT SNOW WILL FALL OVER THE DIVIDE DURING THIS PERIOD. THERE WILL
LIKELY BE SOME TRAVEL IMPACTS BUT THEY SHOULD NOT BE ALL THAT
CONCERNING AS WINDS LOOK RELATIVELY LIGHT AND SNOW INTENSITY DOES
NOT APPEAR TO BE ALL THAT HIGH.
SAN LUIS VALLEY COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS, WITH M50S FOR MAX TEMPS.
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...
PERIODS OF SNOW ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE DIVIDE. MAIN
CHANGE DURING THIS PERIOD IS THE PLAINS SHOULD START TO TREND
TOWARDS COOLER TEMPS (50S). HOWEVER IT APPEARS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS
WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN DRY.
OVERALL, DESI IS SHOWING 2-3" OF LIQUID WATER EQUIVALENT OVER THE SW
MTNS FROM WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, AND THIS SHOULD LEAD TO A
COUPLE FEET OF SNOW OVER THIS REGION. OTHER AREAS OF THE DIVIDE ARE
SHOWING 0.5 TO 1 INCH LWE. \/HODANISH
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1001 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2025
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH BOUTS OF
HIGH CLOUDINESS AT THE TAF SITES AT TIMES. WINDS WILL BE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN OVERNIGHT BUT PICK UP FROM THE WEST TO
NORTHWEST AT KCOS AND KPUB DURING THE MORNING AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE
CROSSES THE MOUNTAINS. GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT
KPUB WHILE WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER AT KCOS IN THE DOWNSTREAM WAKE
OF PIKES PEAK. WINDS AT KCOS WILL LIKELY SHIFT OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST IN THE AFTERNOON AS A RESULT. GUSTY WINDS WILL
DECREASE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AT KPUB WITH LIGHT DIURNALLY
DRIVEN DOWNSLOPE DOWNVALLEY WINDS SETTING IN MON EVENING FOR
BOTH KCOS AND KPUB.
WINDS AT KALS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVER THE 24 HOUR
PERIOD WITH A LIGHT SOUTHERLY COMPONENT AT TIMES.
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...GARBEROGLIO
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...KT
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