229
FXUS65 KPUB 221128
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
428 AM MST MON DEC 22 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- RED FLAG WARNING TODAY FOR TELLER, N EL PASO, PUEBLO AND HUERFANO
COUNTIES.
- VERY WARM ON THE PLAINS THROUGH FRIDAY, TRENDING COOLER AT THE END
OF THE PERIOD; DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE PLAINS THROUGHOUT.
- PERIODS OF SNOW (SOME HEAVY) BECOMING LIKELY MAINLY ALONG THE
DIVIDE STARTING CHRISTMAS EVE LASTING INTO THE WEEKEND.
HEAVIEST SNOW SAN JUANS.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 209 AM MST MON DEC 22 2025
CURRENTLY...
EXCEPT FOR SOME PASSING HIGH CLOUDS OVER PARTS OF THE REGION, SKIES
WERE CLEAR OVER THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. WHERE THE WIND WAS
BLOWING IT WAS MILD, WITH TEMPS OVER THE PLAINS AND UPPER AND MID
ARK RVR VALLEY IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50, WHERE TH WIND WAS NOT
BLOWING ON THE PLAINS IT WAS IN TEH 20S. SAN LUIS VALLEY, WHERE IT
WAS CALM, WAS IN THE LOWER 20S EARLY THIS MORNING.
TODAY...
MAIN CONCERN IS FIRE WEATHER. AFTER COORDINATING WITH BOU, AND
REVIEWING LATEST HI REG GUIDANCE PRODUCTS, DECIDED TO ISSUE A RED
FLAG WARNING FOR TODAY FOR N EL PASO, TELLER, FREMONT (LOWER
ELEVATIONS) PUEBLO (MAINLY N PUEBLO) AND HUERFANO COUNTIES. ALTHOUGH
WINDS WILL BE MARGINAL OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS (MAINLY GUSTS TO
20 TO 30 MPH), THE CONTINUATION OF THE VERY DRY CONDITIONS ALONG
WITH THE LOW RH VALUES AND MARGINAL WINDS WARRANTS A RED FLAG
WARNING FOR TODAY. IN TELLER COUNTY, WINDS WILL BE STRONGER AND RH
VALUES WILL BE IN THE LOWER 10S, SO THE FIRE WEATHER CONCERN IN
THIS REGION IS HIGH.
THE WINDS TODAY OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE GAP
AREAS (EASTERN FREMONT AND PUEBLO, ALONG WITH AREAS DOWN IN THE
REGION OF WALSENBURG).
S EL PASO COUNTY WILL MAINLY BE BLOCKED BY PIKES PEAK. NEARLY ALL OF
S EL PASO COUNTY WILL SEE WINDS BELOW RED FLAG CRITERIA (I ACTUALLY
SUSPECT KCOS WILL BE MAINLY UPSLOPE ALL DAY LONG). THE ONLY
EXCEPTION WILL BE THE FAR SOUTHERN PART OF THE COUNTY ALONG THE
PUEBLO COUNTY LINE WHICH WILL SEE WINDS REACHING RED FLAG CRITERIA.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT A VERY WARM DAY OVER THE REGION. IT WILL BE
BREEZY IN ALL OF THE MTNS (WITH LESSER WIND IN THE SAN JUANS). MOST
OF THE PLAINS WILL SEE STEADY WEST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH EXCEPT THE
AREAS DISCUSSED ABOVE. TEMPS ALL AREAS WILL BE WARM, WIT TEMPS
AROUND 80 EXPECTED IN FAR SE CO PLAINS AND 70S ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE
PLAINS. SAN LUIS VALLEY WILL BE IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60F. TEMPS WILL
BE CLOSE TO OR MAY REACH RECORD HIGHS.
TONIGHT...
ANOTHER MILD NIGHT IS ANTICIPATED. BANANA BELT REGIONS AND RATON
MESA REGION WILL SEE MINS ONLY IN THE 30S AND 40S WITH 20S ELSEWHERE
ON THE PLAINS. SAN LUIS VALLEYS WILL BE ABOUT 20F. MTNS WILL BE IN
THE 20S. \/HODANISH
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 209 AM MST MON DEC 22 2025
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE EXTENDED. TROUGH STILL FORECAST TO DEVELOP
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND THIS WILL BRING INCREASING MOISTURE TO
THE CONTDVD REGION STARING XMAS EVE AND LASTING INTO THE WEEKEND.
PERUSING THE DESI GUIDANCE, 2-3" OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT IS EXPECTED
OVER THE SAN JUANS. AT THIS TIME, THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL FALL LATE
XMAS EVE THROUGH CHRISTMAS DAY. THE SNOW COULD BE HEAVY DURING THIS
PERIOD. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD IT APPEARS ON AND OFF LIGHT
SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. FOR THE REST OF THE CONTDVD
REGION, ACCUM WILL BE LESS WITH GENERALLY 0.5 TO 1.0" OF LIQUID
EQUIVALENT FALLING OVER THE REGION.
MOST OF THE PRECIP IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS DESTINED TO REMAIN OVER
THE CONTDVD REGION WITH ONLY A SOME SHOWERS REACHING THE MTNS
ADJACENT TO THE PLAINS. ACCUMS LOOK TO IN IN CONSEQUENTIAL AT THIS
TIME.
AS FOR TEMPS, IT IS NOT GOING TO FEEL LIKE CHRISTMAS AROUND THE
REGION (ESPECIALLY PLAINS AND LARGER VALLEYS) AS VERY WARM TEMPS
WILL LAST INTO LATE WEEK. 60S AND 70S ARE NEAR CERTAIN EVERY DAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. THERE COULD BE SOME SPOTTY ELEVATED WEATHER
CONDITIONS OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS DURING THIS PERIOD. BY THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, TEMPS SHOULD START TO COOL OFF ACROSS
THE PLAINS.
TAKING A PEAK BEYOND DAY 7, THERE APPEARS TO BE SOME HOPE FOR COOLER
WEATHER WITH SOME PRECIP OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AS THE LONGER
RANGE GUIDANCE (CPC, DESI, DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS) IS SHOWING
TROUGHING MOVING OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST THE MID WEEK PERIOD OF
NEXT WEEK (AOA NEW YEARS TIME PERIOD). \/HODANISH
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 421 AM MST MON DEC 22 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE NEAR CERTAIN DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT ALL
3 TAF SITES, KPUB, KALS AND KCOS.
AT KPUB, WINDS MAY GET A BIT GUSTY FROM THE WEST LATER THIS
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON, THEN SHOULD BECOME DIURNALLY
DRIVEN THEREAFTER.
AT KCOS, CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIRECTION IS SOMEWHAT LOW AS GUSTY WEST
WINDS WILL OCCUR NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE TAF SITE, IT IS
POSSIBLE FOR A PERIOD OF TIME LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON
THAT THESE GUSTY WEST WINDS MAY PUSH OVER THE TAF SITE, BUT AT
THIS TIME THIS LOOKS UNLIKELY.
WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT AT KALS.
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM MST THIS
AFTERNOON FOR COZ221-222-226-228-229.
SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...HODANISH
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