207
FXUS65 KPUB 150528
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1028 PM MST WED JAN 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WARM WITH SOME ELEVATED GAP WIND AREA WIND ON THURSDAY, THEN
A STRONG BUT DRY COLD FRONT EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING.
- HIGH WIND WATCH ISSUED FOR KIOWA COUNTY ON FRIDAY MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON FOR STRONG WINDS.
- CONTINUED COOL ESPECIALLY PLAINS ON SATURDAY THEN A GRADUAL
WARMUP WITH CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 207 PM MST WED JAN 14 2026
CURRENTLY...QUIET CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS
SOUTHERN COLORADO THROUGH THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES ARE COOL, WITH 40S AND 50S ACROSS THE PLAINS AND
SAN LUIS VALLEY. OVERALL, WINDS ARE WEAK NORTHERLY, EXCEPT NEAR
THE KANSAS BORDER WHERE GUSTY WINDS TO NEAR 25 MPH WILL CONTINUE
INTO EARLY EVENING.
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...THE UPPER PATTERN WILL FEATURE AN UPPER
TROUGH ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY, WHILE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES
ALONG THE WEST COAST. THIS WILL PUT SOUTHERN COLORADO IN BROAD
NORTH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL FALL OFF
INTO THE 20S AND 30S FOR THE PLAINS, WITH SINGLE DIGIT LOWS OVER
THE SAN LUIS VALLEY. NO PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST TONIGHT.
ON THURSDAY, AN EMBEDDED UPPER WAVE OVER WYOMING IS FORECAST TO
TRACK SOUTHEAST ACROSS COLORADO BY THE AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THIS
UPPER WAVE, WESTERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING,
WITH A FEW GUSTS NEAR 25 TO 30 MPH IN GAP WIND PRONE AREAS.
RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM RECENT SNOWFALL SHOULD HELP KEEP HUMIDITY
VALUES UP A BIT, WITH MOST LOCATIONS ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR
REMAINING IN THE 15-20 PERCENT RANGE. THE ENHANCED MIXING SHOULD
HELP TEMPERATURES WARM QUICKLY, WITH 50S AND 60S FOR MOST OF THE
PLAINS. AS THE UPPER WAVE APPROACHES, A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL
TRACK SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS, SWITCHING WINDS NORTHERLY BY THE
AFTERNOON, WITH SOME COOLING HEADING INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
MOZLEY
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 157 AM MST WED JAN 14 2026
STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW THEN DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA FRI, WITH
SECONDARY PUSH OF COLDER/DRIER AIR DURING THE MORNING.
INCREASED FIRE DANGER AGAIN A THREAT ON THE PLAINS AS STRONG
WINDS ALOFT (50-60 KTS) MIX TO THE SURFACE OVER THE FAR EAST,
THOUGH RH NEVER GETS QUITE LOW ENOUGH FOR A HIGHLIGHT. WILL ALSO
HAVE TO WATCH FOR HIGH WIND POTENTIAL NEAR THE KS BORDER FRI AS
STRONG MID LEVEL FLOW ROTATES ACROSS THE REGION, THOUGH SURFACE
GRADIENT ISN'T PARTICULARLY TIGHT, ESPECIALLY BACK TOWARD
I-25. STUCK WITH NBM GUSTS IN THE 40-50 MPH RANGE FOR NOW, BUT
MIGHT NEED TO BUMP THINGS UP ACROSS KIOWA COUNTY, WHERE AT
LEAST SOME GUIDANCE SHOWS GUSTS TO NEAR 60 MPH. FRI MAXES SOME
15-20 DEGF COLDER THAN THU ON THE PLAINS, A LITTLE LESS DRAMATIC
COOLING OVER THE MOUNTAINS/INTERIOR VALLEYS.
SLOW WARMING TREND THEN DEVELOPS SATURDAY, BEFORE MORE
PRONOUNCED WARMING SUNDAY AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE WRN
U.S. ANOTHER GLANCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS COLD SURFACE HIGH DROPS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST, BEFORE
SLOWLY WARMING TEMPS RETURN MID-WEEK. UNFORTUNATELY, NO PRECIP
EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST WED, AS VERY DRY PATTERN AND LOW
SNOWPACK NUMBERS CONTINUE.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1028 PM MST WED JAN 14 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KALS, KCOS, AND KPUB THROUGH 24
HOURS. WINDS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY LIGHT OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE DAY
THURSDAY, WITH INCREASING NORTH FLOW AT KCOS AND KPUB CLOSE TO THE
END OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD. GUSTY WINDS 20-25 KNOTS WILL SET IN
JUST BEFORE 06Z TOMORROW EVENING.
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON
FOR COZ095-096.
SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...PETERSEN
AVIATION...GARBEROGLIO
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