023
FXUS65 KPUB 160516
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1016 PM MST THU JAN 15 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- COLD FRONT PASSAGE LATER TONIGHT WILL BRING COLDER
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
- LOCALLY STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRIDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON ACROSS KIOWA
AND PROWERS COUNTIES.
- CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP DURING THE NEXT 7 DAYS OVER THE
FCST AREA IS LOW, BUT SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OCCASIONALLY
POSSIBLE.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1014 PM MST THU JAN 15 2026
COLD FRONT CAME THROUGH WITH STRONGER MIXING THAN DATA INITIALLY
PREDICTED. HAVE HOISTED HIGH WIND WARNINGS EARLY, AND ADDED
SOUTHERN EL PASO (COLORADO SPRINGS AREA) AND OTERO COUNTIES TO
THEM AS WELL. WILL EVALUATE THE NEED FOR ANY FURTHER EXTENSIONS,
AS WELL AS EXTENSIONS OF TOMORROW'S RED FLAG WARNINGS, WITH THE
OVERNIGHT FORECAST PACKAGE.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 200 PM MST THU JAN 15 2026
CURRENTLY...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT REMAINS ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD OF
THE COUNTRY, WHILE A STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BEGINS TO
DROP SOUTH OUT OF CANADA INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS IS PRODUCING
BRISK NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS COLORADO, WITH SOME
STRONGER GUSTS BEING REALIZED IN THE NORMAL GAP-FLOW SPOTS NEAR THE
MTS. THERE HAVE BEEN SOME VERY SPOTTY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS CROPPING UP TODAY AS WELL, BUT ONCE AGAIN THEY HAVE NOT
BEEN WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT ANY HIGHLIGHTS. TEMPS AS OF 1 PM
HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE 40S AND 50S FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS, AND UPPER
50S TO NEAR 70F FOR THE EASTERN PLAINS.
TONIGHT...LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL UPPER PATTERN, BUT MODELS
INDICATE THAT THE UPPER JET WILL BE SITUATED OVER THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES AND SOUTH ACROSS COLORADO. IN ADDITION, A LOBE OF ENERGY
PUSHING THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT WILL CROSS CO, ALLOWING A RATHER
STRONG COLD FRONT TO SURGE SOUTH ACROSS THE PALMER DIVIDE SOMETIME
AROUND MIDNIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL REACH THE SOUTHERN BORDER BY
SUNRISE, USHERING IN STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS FOR MUCH OF
THE EASTERN PLAINS. A FEW SNOWFLAKES ARE POSSIBLE OVER MONUMENT HILL
AND PERHAPS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF LAKE COUNTY, BUT NO
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. PLAN ON LOWS IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S FOR
THE HIGH VALLEYS, SINGLE DIGITS FOR THE CENTER OF THE SAN LUIS
VALLEY, AND 20S ACROSS THE PLAINS.
TOMORROW...PERSISTENT UPPER PATTERN REMAINS, WITH MODELS SHOWING
STRONGER WIND FLOW FOR EASTERN CO INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS OF THE US.
THOUGH MUCH OF OUR EASTERN PLAINS WILL BE WINDY THROUGH THE DAY,
KIOWA AND PROWERS COUNTIES HAVE THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF SEEING
POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. THEREFORE, WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A
HIGH WIND WARNING FOR THOSE TWO COUNTIES FROM 8 AM UNTIL 5 PM. IN
ADDITION, GIVEN SUCH LOW DEWPOINTS FORECAST ACROSS THE EAST POST-
FRONTAL, WENT AHEAD AND HOISTED A RED FLAG WARNING FOR BOTH
COUNTIES, FIRE ZONES 234 AND 236, FROM 9 AM UNTIL 5 PM. SUSTAINED 25
TO 35 MPH WINDS, WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 60 MPH, WILL CREATE SOME
NASTY FIREWX CONDITIONS AS RH LEVELS DROP TO AROUND 15%. AS FOR HIGH
TEMPS, BEHIND THE FRONT TEMPS WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE INTO THE 40S FOR
MOST LOCATIONS. MOORE
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 302 AM MST THU JAN 15 2026
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE COLD WITH LOWS IN THE 10 TO 15 DEGREE
RANGE ON THE PLAINS AND NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGITS IN THE SLV. SOME
SNOW SHOWERS MAY OCCUR ON THE PLAINS.
SATURDAY...
THIS SHOULD BE THE COLDEST DAY OF THE FCST PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE LESS
THIS DAY AS COMPARED TO FRIDAY, BUT WILL STILL BE BREEZY IN AREAS,
ESPECIALLY OVER THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS. IT WILL BE DRY BUT MAX TEMPS
WILL ONLY BE IN THE 30S, WITH TEMPS MAYBE NOT REACHING ABOVE
FREEZING OVER THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS.
SUNDAY WILL WARM UP AND IT WILL BE DRY. SUNDAY WILL DEFINITELY BE
THE NICER DAY OF THE WEEKEND TIME PERIOD.
ANOTHER BRIEF COOL-OFF WILL OCCUR ON MONDAY, AND ONCE AGAIN WE
COULD SEE SOME PASSING INSIGNIFICANT SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY OVER THE
PALMER DIVIDE REGION.
FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK EXPECT UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPS TO CONTINUE
AND IT WILL LIKELY BE DRY.
SOME POTENTIAL FOR SOME ACCUMULATING PRECIP MAY OCCUR NEXT WEEKEND.
\/HODANISH
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1014 PM MST THU JAN 15 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KALS, KCOS, AND KPUB THROUGH 24
HOURS. STRONG WINDS ARE BLOWING THROUGH WITH THE PASSING OF THE
FRONT AT KCOS, WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED AT KPUB. THIS
SHOULD LAST A FEW HOURS, WITH WINDS WEAKENING A BIT INTO THE
EARLY MORNING. GUSTY WINDS WILL RESUME AT THE TERMINALS AFTER
18Z TODAY, THOUGH GUSTS SHOULD STAY CLOSER TO 25-30 KNOTS OR SO.
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST FRIDAY FOR COZ085-089-095-096-
098.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM TO 5 PM MST FRIDAY FOR COZ234-236.
UPDATE...GARBEROGLIO
SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...GARBEROGLIO
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page