555
FXUS65 KPUB 161129
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
429 AM MST FRI JAN 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- GETTING WINDY LATER THIS AM INTO THE AFTERNOON GENERALLY EAST OF A
LINE FROM RAMAH TO LAS ANIMAS TO EAST OF SPRINGFIELD; GUSTS TO 65
MPH MAINLY IN KIOWA AND NORTHERN PROWERS.
- IN WINDIEST AREAS, BLOWING DUST LIKELY, DUST STORM WARNINGS MAY BE
NEEDED LATER TODAY.
- RED FLAG WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR PARTS OF THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS.
- COLDER TODAY AND TOMORROW.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 258 AM MST FRI JAN 16 2026
CURRENTLY...
WINDS GOT QUITE GUSTY WHEN THE FRONT WENT THROUGH EARLIER THIS
EVENING, BUT HAVE SUBSIDED SIGNIFICANTLY. TEMPS HAVE COOLED OFF MOST
AREAS OF THE PLAINS WITH READINGS MOSTLY IN THE 20S WITH SOME 30S
OVER THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS. WHERE THE FRONT HAS NOT PENETRATED INTO
THE HIGHER TERRAIN, TEMPS WERE STILL IN THE 40S. MOST MTN AREAS WERE
IN TEH TENS AND 20S. SOME LOW CLOUDS WERE NOTED ON TOP OF THE PALMER
DIVIDE.
TODAY...
MAIN CONCERN IS THE STRONG WIND POTENTIAL LATER THIS AM CONTINUING
INTO THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG JET WILL PUSH ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS AND
WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE, THE LOWER
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE NEARLY DRY ADIABATIC AND THIS
IN TURN WILL MIX DOWN THE STRONG WINDS WHICH WERE LOCATED IN THE
LOWER/MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. I EXPECT WE WILL EASILY SEE
GUSTS IN THE 55 TO 65 MPH RANGE, ESPECIALLY AREA EAST OF A LINE
FROM FROM RAMAH TO LAS ANIMAS TO EAST OF SPRINGFIELD. THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL LIKELY OCCUR OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN KIOWA
COUNTY AND NORTHERN PROWERS COUNTIES. HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
MTNS, ESPECIALLY THE CENTRAL MTNS AND PIKES PEAK, WILL ALSO SEE
STRONG WINDS (BUT THESE WINDS SHOULD BE BELOW HIGH WIND
CRITERIA). IT WILL BE BREEZY AT TIMES OVER THE I-25 CORRIDOR,
BUT WINDS SHOULD NOT BE STRONG.
GIVEN THE STRONG WINDS OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO PUSHING SOUTH INTO
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO, I WOULD NOT BE TOO SURPRISED IF WE
SEE QUITE A BIT OF BLOWING DUST OVER THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS, AND
DUST STORM WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED LATER TODAY.
FIRE WEATHER WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN. RH VALUE MAY REACH CRITICAL
VALUES (LESS THAN 15%), HOWEVER WINDS WILL BE QUITE STRONG OVER
PARTS OF THE PLAINS TODAY. AMBIENT TEMPS TODAY WILL BE QUITE
COOL WITH ONLY 40S FOR HIGHS. TEMPS IN NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY
WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE 30S.
TONIGHT...
ONCE THE SUN SETS THE WINDS WILL LIKELY QUICKLY DIMINISH OVER THE
PLAINS. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY IN THE CENTRAL MTNS. THERE WILL BE A
CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE PLAINS TONIGHT, NO
ACCUMULATIONS ARE ANTICIPATED. MIN TEMPS TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE
TENS ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH SINGLE DIGITS IN THE SAN LUIS VALLEY.
MTNS WILL BE COLD WITH TEMPS RANGING FROM -10 TO +10.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 258 AM MST FRI JAN 16 2026
TOMORROW...
CONTINUED COLD WITH SOMEWHAT LESS WINDS. THE WINDIEST AREAS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE OVER REGIONS WHERE THE STRONG WINDS WILL BE LOCATED
TODAY. TEMPS MAY NOT REACH FREEZING OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE AND
RATON MESA REGION TOMORROW, WITH 30S IN THE LOWER ARK RVR VALLEY
OF THE PLAINS. LARGER VALLEYS WILL BE IN TEH 30S WITH 10S AND
20S MTNS.
SUNDAY WILL BE MUCH NICER WITH TEMPS WARMING INTO THE 50S MOST OF
THE PLAINS WITH 40S VALLEYS. DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE.
MONDAY WE WILL SEE ANOTHER SURGE OF COOLER AIR COME INTO THE REGION,
BUT THINGS WILL RECOVER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH MAINLY
50S PLAINS AND 40S VALLEYS. DESI STATISTICAL GUIDANCE SHOWS A BIT
BETTER CHANCE OF SOME PRECIP NEXT WEEKEND.
\/HODANISH
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 424 AM MST FRI JAN 16 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT ALL 3 TAF
SITES, KPUB, KALS AND KCOS. THERE MAY BE SOME SCT030 AT KCOS
EARLY THIS MORNING, AND CANT RULE OUT SOME BRIEF BKN030,
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM A NORTHWESTERLY COMPONENT TODAY AT
ALL 3 TAF SITES, AND GUSTS TO 30 KNT WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KCOS
AND KPUB FROM LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO DECREASE AFTER SUNSET.
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COZ095-096-
098.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM MST THIS
AFTERNOON FOR COZ234-236.
SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...HODANISH
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