749
FXUS65 KPUB 162123
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
223 PM MST FRI JAN 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS DIMINISHING THROUGH THE EVENING.
- COOLER AND BREEZY ON SATURDAY, WITH ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS.
- UP AND DOWN TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE FORECAST INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 223 PM MST FRI JAN 16 2026
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES STRONG
NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE ROCKIES, WITH A BROAD UPPER
TROUGH IN PLACE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE CENTRAL
CONUS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS ALSO INDICATING SECONDARY ENERGY DIGGING
DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER AT THIS TIME.
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATING MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE SPREADING
IN FROM THE NORTH AT THIS TIME. STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS OF 20 TO 40
MPH OVER AND NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND 40 TO 60 MPH ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHEAST PLAINS, HAS HELPED TO BOOST TEMPERATURES INTO THE 40S THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH HIGH CLOUDS HELPING TO LIMIT MIXING ACROSS THE I-25
CORRIDOR, WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE STILL IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER
30S AS OF 1 PM. HIGHER RES MODEL DATA STILL INDICATES A PERIOD OF
BREEZY WINDS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE I-25 CORRIDOR,
WHICH SHOULD HELP BUMP UP TEMPERATURES, HOWEVER, I DID LOWER PREVIOUS
HIGH TEMPERATURES AT TAD.
LATEST MODEL DATA REMAINS CONSISTENT IN WHICH STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW
CONTINUES TONIGHT BEFORE DIMINISHING THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY,
AS SAID NORTHERN TIER WAVE CONTINUES TO TRANSLATE SOUTH AND EAST
INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. WITH THAT SAID, SHOULD SEE STRONG NORTHERLY
WINDS DIMINISHING ACROSS THE PLAINS, WITH WINDS LIKELY REMAINING
BREEZY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSING WAVE WILL CONTINUE
TO LOWER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. ANY ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT AND SPOTTY, AND MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER PEAKS.
FURTHER EAST, NBM IS STILL TRYING TO INDICATE SOME PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS. HOWEVER, WITH SOUNDING
DATA INDICATING VERY DRY SUB CLOUD LAYERS, HAVE KEPT POPS SILENT
TONIGHT, SAVE FOR THE CENTRAL MTNS. LOWS TONIGHT TO REMAIN AT AND
BELOW SEASONAL LEVELS IN THE TEENS ACROSS THE PLAINS, WITH LOWS
SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
THE PASSING SECONDARY WAVE WILL BRING COLDER TEMPERATURES TO THE
REGION ON SATURDAY, ALONG WITH CONTINUED BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS OF
20 TO 40 MPH AREAWIDE. LATEST GUIDANCE TRENDS TOWARD COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND HAVE LOWERED NBM A TAD, WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 30S
ACROSS THE PLAINS AND HIGH MOUNTAIN VALLEYS, AND MAINLY IN THE 20S
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. DESPITE THE COOLER TEMPERATURES, DRY AIR
WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION, LEADING TO AREAS OF ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS, MAINLY ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST PLAINS.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 258 AM MST FRI JAN 16 2026
SUNDAY WILL BE MUCH NICER WITH TEMPS WARMING INTO THE 50S MOST
OF THE PLAINS WITH 40S VALLEYS. DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE.
MONDAY WE WILL SEE ANOTHER SURGE OF COOLER AIR COME INTO THE REGION,
BUT THINGS WILL RECOVER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH MAINLY
50S PLAINS AND 40S VALLEYS. DESI STATISTICAL GUIDANCE SHOWS A BIT
BETTER CHANCE OF SOME PRECIP NEXT WEEKEND.
\/HODANISH
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1054 AM MST FRI JAN 16 2026
GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS 20G30KT AT ALS, WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AT COS AND PUB BETWEEN 19Z-21Z, WILL LOOK TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING, BEFORE DIMINISHING. GUSTY NORTHERLY
WINDS TO RETURN BETWEEN 14Z-18Z SATURDAY, WITH STRONG NORTHERLY
FLOW ALOFT CONTINUING ACROSS THE ROCKIES. VFR CONDITIONS TO
PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, WITH PASSING MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS.
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COZ095-096-
098.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COZ234-236.
SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...MW
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