106
FXUS65 KPUB 180103
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
603 PM MST SAT JAN 17 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WARMER AND DRIER WITH LESS WIND FOR SUNDAY.
- ANOTHER COLD FRONT AND TO BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND CHANCES
FOR LIGHT SNOW LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
- JET STREAM (AND SEVERAL PASSING DISTURBANCES) TO REMAINS NORTH,
LEADING TO AT AND ABOVE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND MAYBE A BETTER
CHANCE OF SOME MOUNTAIN LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 603 PM MST SAT JAN 17 2026
QUICK UPDATE MADE TO ALLOW RED FLAG WARNING FOR KIOWA, BENT,
PROWERS AND BACA COUNTIES EXPIRE AT 6 PM.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 230 PM MST SAT JAN 17 2026
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES MODERATE
TO NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE ROCKIES, AS AN EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE
CONTINUES TO DIG DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF A BROAD UPPER TROUGH ACROSS
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE CENTRAL CONUS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
IS ALSO INDICATING UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING ACROSS THE WEST COAST
AND INTO THE GREAT BASIN AT THIS TIME. GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS OF 20 TO
40 MPH ARE BEING EXPERIENCED ACROSS THE REGION, SAVE FOR PORTIONS OF
THE I-25 CORRIDOR, WHERE LIGHTER WINDS ARE CURRENTLY IN PLACE, WITH
TEMPERATURES BELOW SEASONAL LEVELS IN THE 20S AND 30S AREAWIDE AS OF
1 PM. VERY DRY AIR REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE PLAINS, WITH DEW PTS
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO BRINGING RHS IN THE TEENS
AND 20S ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS, WHICH COMBINED WITH THE GUSTY
WINDS, ARE CREATING NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME.
WITH THAT SAID, WE WILL KEEP THE RED FLAG WARNING FOR KIOWA, PROWERS,
AND BACA COUNTIES IN TACT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, THOUGH MAY BE CANCELLED
BEFORE THE CURRENT 6 PM ENDING TIME. OTHERWISE, WILL SEE NORTHERLY FLOW
WEAKENING TONIGHT AND BECOMING MORE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY,
AS YET ANOTHER EMBEDDED WAVE LOOKS TO DIG DOWN ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR WINDS TO BECOME GENERALLY LIGHT AREAWIDE
OVERNIGHT, AND WITH DRY AIR IN PLACE AND CLEAR SKIES, WILL ALLOW FOR
LOW TEMPERATURES TO COOL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS, WITH
THE COOLEST READINGS EXPECTED ACROSS THE SAN LUIS VALLEY.
WARMING ALOFT AND GENERALLY LIGHT DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR
TEMPERATURES TO WARM BACK TO AT AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS
IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S ACROSS THE PLAINS, AND MAINLY IN THE 30S
AND 40S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN ON SUNDAY, UNDER MAINLY SUNNY
SKIES.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 230 PM MST SAT JAN 17 2026
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY, LATEST MODEL DATA DOES INDICATE
ANOTHER BACKDOOR COLD FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE PLAINS OVERNIGHT,
AS ANOTHER EMBEDDED WAVE CONTINUES TO DIG ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HIGH PLAINS THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. MODEL DATA IS STRONGER WITH
SAID PASSING FRONT, WHICH WILL BRING CLOUDS AND CHANCES OF LIGHT
SNOW TO THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING,
WITH EXPECTED MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION. BEST CHANCES OF SEEING
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR LESS LOOKS TO BE IN THE PIKES
PEAK REGION, WHERE THE BEST LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE AND MID LEVEL WAA
ARE JUXTAPOSED. TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL FALL BACK BELOW
SEASONAL LEVELS MAINLY IN THE 30S ACROSS PLAINS, WITH HIGHS
IN THE 30S AND 40S EXPECTED ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
FROM TUESDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND, TEMPS WILL BE MILD WITH MAINLY IN
THE 40S AND 50S. IT WILL BE BREEZY AT TIMES. WE MAY SEE SOME FIRE WX
CONCERNS RETURNING DURING THE DAY TUESDAY AS RH VALUES ARE
EXPECTED TO TANK ONCE AGAIN AND IT WILL BE BREEZY. DESI GUIDANCE
IS SHOWING A BIT BETTER CHANCE OF SOME MOISTURE RETURNING TO
THE REGION (ESPECIALLY THE CENTRAL MTNS) NEXT WEEKEND BUT THE
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ALL THE PROMISING
ATTM. \/HODANISH
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 415 PM MST SAT JAN 17 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
WITH BREEZY NORTH WINDS AT KALS DECREASING QUICKLY THIS EVENING.
KCOS AND KPUB WILL SEE DIURNALLY DRIVEN WINDS UNTIL SUN
AFTERNOON AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT APPROACHES. KCOS WILL SEE A
NORTH WIND SHIFT AROUND 22-23Z WITH INCREASING MID/HIGH
CLOUDINESS. KPUB WILL SEE INCREASING SOUTHEAST TO EAST WINDS
FROM LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING. -KT
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...KT
SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...HODANISH/MW
AVIATION...KT
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