662
FXUS65 KPUB 182325
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
425 PM MST SUN JAN 18 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ANOTHER QUICK PASSING WEATHER SYSTEM TO BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR
BANDED SNOWFALL OVERNIGHT AND A SLICK MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE.
- BREEZY AND WARMER CONDITIONS TO BRING ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
- UNSETTLED WEATHER LATER THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH THE
REGION EXPECTED TO BE ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF A MUCH COOLER
AIRMASS ACROSS CENTRAL CONUS.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 215 PM MST SUN JAN 18 2026
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES MODERATE
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION, WITH ANOTHER EMBEDDED SHORT
WAVE TRANSLATING ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER AT THIS TIME. REGIONAL
SATELLITE DATA HAS MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST COLORADO, WITH SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING
OUT AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM ACROSS EASTERN WYOMING AND NORTHEASTERN
COLORADO AT THIS TIME. WARMING ALOFT AND THE DOWNSLOPE FLOW HAS HELPED
TO WARM TEMPERATURES WITH READINGS AS OF 1 PM IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S
ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS, AND MAINLY IN THE 30S AND 40S ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.
LATEST MODEL DATA CONTINUES TO SUPPORT THE NEXT UPPER WAVE TO TRANSLATE
SOUTH AND EAST OVERNIGHT, WHICH THEN CONTINUES INTO THE HIGH PLAINS
THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY. THIS PASSING WAVE SENDS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE PLAINS TONIGHT, WITH EAST TO SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE
DEVELOPING AND LOWERING CLOUDS ACROSS THE PLAINS OVERNIGHT. MODEL DATA
ALSO CONTINUES TO SUPPORT BANDED SNOWFALL DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHERN
COLORADO LATE THIS EVENING, WITH THE BANDS THEN SLIDING SOUTH AND EAST
ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTNS, INTO THE PIKES PEAK REGION OVERNIGHT AND THEN
OUT ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST PLAINS THROUGH MID MONDAY MORNING. THE
EXPECTED QUICK MOVEMENT OF THE BANDS SUPPORTS GENERALLY LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR TWO, WITH THE BEST POTENTIAL OF SEEING
THESE ACCUMULATIONS BEING ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE PALMER DVD INTO
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS (KIOWA, BENT AND PROWERS
COUNTIES). NEEDLESS TO SAY, THERE WILL LIKELY BE A SLICK AND SLOW
MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE FOR THE AREAS WHERE THE BANDS MOVE ACROSS.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES, OVERNIGHT LOWS TO BE GENERALLY IN THE TEENS AND
20S AREAWIDE TONIGHT. THE EXPECTED MORNING CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION
AND UPSLOPE FLOW THROUGH THE DAY, WILL LIKELY KEEP HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
30S ACROSS THE PLAINS TOMORROW, WITH HIGHS IN 30S AND 40S OVER HIGHER
TERRAIN.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 259 AM MST SUN JAN 18 2026
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
IT WILL BE WARMING UP THESE 3 DAYS. MODEST NW FLOW WILL CONTINUE
WITH A WEAK (DRY) DISTURBANCE OR TWO MOVING IN THE FLOW. MAIN
CONCERN DURING THIS TIME IS SPOTTY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING ALONG THE MTN/PLAINS INTERFACE, ESPECIALLY
IN THE GAP FLOW REGION. MAX TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 50S
PLAINS WITH 40S SLV.
FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...
UNSETTLED AND COOL/(COLD?). THERE IS LIKELY GOING TO BE A FAIRLY
STOUT BAROCLINIC SURFACE BOUNDARY OVER THE REGION DURING THIS PERIOD
AS AN ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL BE LURKING TO OUR NORTH THROUGH NORTHEAST,
AND SOME OF THIS COLDER AIR WILL LIKELY INFILTRATE INTO THE FCST
AREA, ESPECIALLY OVER THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS. IT STILL NEEDS TO BE
DETERMINED HOW FAR WEST IT WILL MOVE, AND THIS IS SHOWN IN THE LARGE
TEMPS SPREADS IN THE DESI STATISTICAL GUIDANCE OVER THE PLAINS.
WITHOUT SAYING, CONFIDENCE IN THE TEMPS FCST OVER THE PLAINS DURING
THIS PERIOD IS QUITE LOW.
IT IS LIKELY THAT THE SLV WILL BE WARMER THAN THE PLAINS ON THESE
DAYS. ADDITIONALLY. A BETTER DISTURBANCE WILL LIKELY BE MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE WEEKEND TIME PERIOD AND EXPECTED WE
WILL SEE A VERY GOOD CHANCE OF SOME SNOW OVER THE MTNS, ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE CONTDVD DURING THIS PERIOD. AT THIS TIME ACCUMS DON'T LOOK
TO BE ALL THAT GREAT, BUT SOME ACCUMS IN THE MTNS ARE BETTER THAN NO
ACCUMS. \/HODANISH
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 421 PM MST SUN JAN 18 2026
A COLD FRONT WILL BACK DOOR INTO THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS BRINGING
LOWERING CIGS FOR KCOS AND KPUB OVERNIGHT AS WINDS SHIFT FROM
THE EAST THEN SOUTHEAST. -SN WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH MVFR
TO IFR CIGS/VIS TOWARDS 12Z. LOWEST CONDITIONS WILL BE AT KCOS
WHERE A PERIOD OF IFR IS LIKELY LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. ANYWHERE FROM A TRACE TO AN INCH OF SNOW WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT BOTH TERMINALS, ESPECIALLY KCOS. -SN WILL COME TO AN
END MON MORNING BUT CIGS MAY BE SLOW TO BREAK AT KCOS DUE TO
SOUTHERLY UPSLOPE FLOW CONTINUING INTO THE AFTERNOON. KPUB IS
LIKELY TO SEE IMPROVING CONDITIONS BY 18Z WITH KCOS MORE TOWARDS
19-20Z.
KALS WILL STAY VFR WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AND
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. -KT
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...KT
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page