114
FXUS65 KPUB 190951
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
251 AM MST MON JAN 19 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SOME LIGHT SNOW OVER THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE FCST AREA THIS
MORNING
- POSSIBLE FIRE WX CONCERNS MTNS/PLAINS INTERFACE TUESDAY.
- TRENDING MUCH COLDER LATE WEEK WITH A CHANCE OF SOME PRECIP
ALL AREAS FRI-SAT
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 250 AM MST MON JAN 19 2026
CURRENTLY...
AT 1 AM, A ~100 MILE WIDE BAND OF LIGHT SNOW EXTENDED NW-SE ACROSS
MAINLY NORTH CENTRAL CO INTO EAST CENTRAL CO. PER RADAR, SOME OF THE
BANDS WERE SHOWING MODERATE SNOW AT TIMES. PERUSING CDOT WEBCAMS,
THE SNOW WAS TURNING THE GROUND WHITE BUT ACCUMS DID NOT LOOK ALL
THAT MUCH, MAYBE AN INCH OR SO IN SOME LOCATIONS. THIS BAND WAS
JUST STARTING TO TOUCH OUR FCST AREA AS SOME FLAKES WERE LIKELY
OCCURRING IN FAR NE EL PASO COUNTY AND OVER FAR NORTHEAST KIOWA
COUNTY.
TEMPS EARLY THIS MORNING WERE CHILLY, WITH READINGS MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 20S ACROSS MOST OF THE PLAINS AND AROUND 20 IN THE LARGER
VALLEYS. MTNS WERE IN THE TENS.
NOW THROUGH AROUND MIDDAY....
BAND OF SNOW WILL PUSH SLOWLY SOUTH AS THE BAND MOVES GENERALLY OFF
TO THE SOUTHEAST. IT APPEARS THE BRUNT OF THE ACTIVITY IS GENERALLY
GONG TO REMAIN NORTH OF A LINE FROM COLORADO SPRING TO NORTH OF LA
JUNTA TO EAST CENTRAL PROWERS COUNTY. THE OVERALL "BIG WINNERS" WITH
THIS EVENT (AND INCH OR SO) WILL FAR NORTHEAST EL PASO COUNTY AND
NORTHEAST KIOWA COUNTY. I BELIEVE MOST OF THE AREA THAT GETS SNOW
WILL JUST HAVE THE GROUND TURN WHITE. FORTUNATELY, WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT WITH THIS EVENT SO THE OVERALL COMMUTE SHOULD MOT BE OVERLY
IMPACTED BY THIS EVENT. MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD BE
OVER WITH BY NOONTIME, WITH SKIES QUICKLY CLEARING OUT.
MAX TEMPS TODAY WILL QUITE A BIT COOLER THAN YESTERDAYS HIGHS, WITH
READINGS MAINLY IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40 OVER THE PLAINS. SAN LUIS
VALLEY WILL SEE THE WARMEST TEMPS TODAY, WITH READINGS IN THE L40S.
MTNS WILL BE IN THE 10S AND 20S.
.
FOR TONIGHT, CLEAR AND COLD. EXPECT MINS IN THE TENS MOST OF THE
PAINS WITH SOME 20S MTNS/PLAINS INTERFACE. VALLEYS WILL BE IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS TO L10S. MTNS WILL BE NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGITS TO
POSITIVE SINGLE DIGITS.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 250 AM MST MON JAN 19 2026
TUESDAY, A QUICK WARM UP IS ANTICIPATED AND FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
WILL BECOME AN ISSUE AS WINDS WILL PICK UP ALONG THE MTNS/PLAINS
INTERFACE AND MIN RH VALUES ARE PROGGED TO GET INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS. FIRE WX HILITES MAY BE NEEDED THESE AREAS, ESPECIALLY IF
THESE AREAS DO NOT SEE ANY SNOW TODAY.
FOR WEDNESDAY, IT WILL BE SIMILAR TO TUESDAY, BUT WINDS WILL BE A
BIT LESS AND RH VALUES WILL BE A BIT HIGHER, BUT STILL WE MAY SEE
SOME SPOTTY FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ALONG THE MTN/PLAINS INTERFACE ON
THIS DAY.
THURSDAY, THE BEGINNING OF A POTENTIAL SIGNIFICANT COLD SNAP WILL
START TO BE FELT AS GUIDANCE IS INDICATING ARCTIC BOUNDARY PUSHING
INTO THE REGION DURING THE MID/LATE DAY PERIOD OVER THE PLAINS. IT
SHOULD REMAIN DRY ACROSS THE ENTIRE FCST AREA DURING THIS DAY.
FRIDAY...MAX TEMPS ARE NOW NOT FORECASTED TO GET ABOVE FREEZING
ACROSS ALL OF THE PLAINS. DESI GUIDANCE IS STILL SHOWING A RATHER
LARGE RANGE IN THE MAX TEMPS FCST, BUT MOST MEMBERS ARE FAVORING A
COLDER SOLUTION. RH VALUES THROUGH THE COLUMN ARE ALSO NOTICEABLY
HIGHER AND SOME LOW END POPS ARE NOW BEING FCST OVER THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS. DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS ARE SHOWING A LARGE 1050 MB
ARCTIC AIRMASS PUSHING ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL STATES WITH SOLID
UPSLOPE FLOW OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY WILL BE QUITE COLD AND CLOUD WITH UPSLOPE PRECIP OVER
THE PLAINS. POPS FOR THE PLAINS ARE NOW IN THE 20-40% RANGE WITH
HIGHER AMOUNTS MTNS FOR THE FRI INTO SAT TIME PERIOD.
FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, DRY WITH TEMPS WARMING BACK UP INTO THE 40S
AND 50S. ANOTHER ARCTIC INTRUSION COULD OCCUR MID WEEK NEXT WEEK IF
THE EC DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE VERIFIES. \/HODANISH
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1015 PM MST SUN JAN 18 2026
CEILINGS WILL DROP AT KCOS AND KPUB THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
WITH MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO LIGHT SNOW SPREADING INTO
BOTH TERMINALS AFTER 10-12Z. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF A TRACE TO UP
TO AN INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE AT THE TERMINALS WITH THE HEAVIEST
OF THESE AMOUNTS ACROSS EL PASO COUNTY AND KCOS VICINITY. WINDS
WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST AT BOTH KCOS AND KPUB OVERNIGHT
WITH SNOW ENDING AND CEILINGS SLOW TO BREAK ON MONDAY. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN AROUND 18-19Z WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS MONDAY NIGHT.
KALS WILL STAY VFR WITH BOUTS OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS AT TIMES. WINDS
WILL STAY LIGHT AND SHIFT AROUND FROM THE NORTH MONDAY
AFTERNOON. -KT
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...KT
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