149
FXUS65 KPUB 192332
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
432 PM MST MON JAN 19 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WARM, DRY AND BREEZY WEATHER WILL BRING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS TO PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST COLORADO TUESDAY.
- ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER AND NEAR THE HIGHER
TERRAIN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
- TRENDING MUCH COLDER FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH INCREASING
CHANCES FOR SNOW.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 207 PM MST MON JAN 19 2026
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES
MODERATE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION, WITH UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING ACROSS THE WEST COAST AND A BROAD UPPER TROUGH IN PLACE
ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE CENTRAL CONUS. REGIONAL
SATELLITE DATA IS INDICATING MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS AS CLOUDS
CONTINUE TO DECREASE ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST PLAINS, WITH MUCH
DRIER AIR WORKING INTO THE REGIONAL BEHIND THIS MORNINGS PASSING
WAVE. TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN SLOW TO WARM BEHIND THE PASSING WAVE,
WITH READINGS AS OF 1 PM IN THE 30S ACROSS THE PLAINS AND IN THE 30S
AND 40S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
LATEST MODEL DATA SUPPORTS INCREASING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH
THE DAY TUESDAY, AHEAD OF YET ANOTHER EMBEDDED WAVE DIGGING DOWN
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER.
THIS WILL KEEP VERY DRY AIR IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION, AND WITH
CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT, WILL SEE TEMPERATURES COOL OFF INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS AND TEENS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, WITH EXPECTED WARMING
OVER AND NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
INCREASING NORTHWEST FLOW SUPPORTS LEE TROUGHING ACROSS THE I-25
CORRIDOR ON TUESDAY, WHICH WILL HELP TO DEVELOP GAP FLOWS AND BREEZY
WINDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THIS, ALONG WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES
(IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS THE PLAINS, AND IN THE 30S AND 40S
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN) AND CONTINUED DRY AIR IN PLACE, WILL
SUPPORT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR PORTIONS OF THE
MOUNTAINS/PLAINS INTERFACE. WITH THAT SAID, WE HAVE ISSUED RED FLAG
WARNINGS FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 221, 222, 228 AND 229. WE DID NOT
INCLUDE ZONES 225 AND 226, AS THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME AREAS ALONG
THE LOWER EASTERN SLOPES REACHING CRITERIA, IT WAS NOT ENOUGH TO
INCLUDE ALL OF THE ZONES.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 250 AM MST MON JAN 19 2026
FOR WEDNESDAY, IT WILL BE SIMILAR TO TUESDAY, BUT WINDS WILL BE A
BIT LESS AND RH VALUES WILL BE A BIT HIGHER, BUT STILL WE MAY SEE
SOME SPOTTY FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ALONG THE MTN/PLAINS INTERFACE ON
THIS DAY.
THURSDAY, THE BEGINNING OF A POTENTIAL SIGNIFICANT COLD SNAP WILL
START TO BE FELT AS GUIDANCE IS INDICATING ARCTIC BOUNDARY PUSHING
INTO THE REGION DURING THE MID/LATE DAY PERIOD OVER THE PLAINS. IT
SHOULD REMAIN DRY ACROSS THE ENTIRE FCST AREA DURING THIS DAY.
FRIDAY...MAX TEMPS ARE NOW NOT FORECASTED TO GET ABOVE FREEZING
ACROSS ALL OF THE PLAINS. DESI GUIDANCE IS STILL SHOWING A RATHER
LARGE RANGE IN THE MAX TEMPS FCST, BUT MOST MEMBERS ARE FAVORING A
COLDER SOLUTION. RH VALUES THROUGH THE COLUMN ARE ALSO NOTICEABLY
HIGHER AND SOME LOW END POPS ARE NOW BEING FCST OVER THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS. DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS ARE SHOWING A LARGE 1050 MB
ARCTIC AIRMASS PUSHING ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL STATES WITH SOLID
UPSLOPE FLOW OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY WILL BE QUITE COLD AND CLOUD WITH UPSLOPE PRECIP OVER
THE PLAINS. POPS FOR THE PLAINS ARE NOW IN THE 20-40% RANGE WITH
HIGHER AMOUNTS MTNS FOR THE FRI INTO SAT TIME PERIOD.
FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, DRY WITH TEMPS WARMING BACK UP INTO THE 40S
AND 50S. ANOTHER ARCTIC INTRUSION COULD OCCUR MID WEEK NEXT WEEK IF
THE EC DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE VERIFIES. \/HODANISH
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 429 PM MST MON JAN 19 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH INCREASING
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
DOMINATED BY DIURNALLY DRIVEN WIND DIRECTIONS OVERNIGHT. WINDS
WILL INCREASE AT KPUB FROM THE WEST BY TUE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS
IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE. KCOS WILL SEE SOUTHEAST WINDS PERSIST
UNTIL MID TO LATE AFTERNOON, THEN WINDS WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST AROUND 15 KTS. KALS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE
THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. -KT
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ221-222-
228-229.
SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...KT
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