479
FXUS65 KPUB 201741
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1041 AM MST TUE JAN 20 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- RED FLAG WARNING EXPANDED OVER PARTS OF THE REGION TODAY.
- ARCTIC AIR MASS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION FRIDAY, LAST INTO SATURDAY.
- WIDESPREAD, GENERALLY LIGHT, SNOW ACCUMULATIONS LIKELY FRI-SAT
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 258 AM MST TUE JAN 20 2026
CURRENTLY...
EARLY THIS MORNING, SOME WAVE CLOUDS WERE DEVELOPING OVER THE MTNS,
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE PIKES PEAK/RAMPART RANGE REGIONS. THE BANANA
BELT WAS SHOWING UP QUITE NICELY, AS TEMPS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
MTNS/PLAINS INTERFACE WERE STILL IN THE 30S WHILE IMMEDIATELY TO THE
EAST TEMPS WERE IN THE 10S AND 20S OVER THE PLAINS. VALLEYS WERE IN
THE 10S AND SINGLE DIGITS. DEWPOINTS WERE RIDICULOUSLY LOW OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN WITH VALUES MAINLY IN THE NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGITS,
ALTHOUGH AT HIGHEST ELEVATIONS THEY WERE IN THE -20S AND -30S. SOME
OF THIS RATHER DRY AIR WAS ADVECTING OUT ONTO THE PLAINS (ESPECIALLY
PALMER DIVIDE) WHERE VALUES WERE IN THE NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGITS. MOST
OF THE LOWER PLAINS HAD DWPTS IN THE TENS.
TODAY...
RED FLAG WARNINGS HAVE BEEN EXPANDED TO INCLUDE ALL OF THE CENTRAL
MTN REGION AND SOUTHERN MOUNTAIN REGION, AND NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY
HAS ALSO BE ADDED. SOUTHERN EL PASO COUNTY HAS NOT BEEN ADDED AS IT
APPEARS THE PIKES PEAK MASSIF WILL ACT AS A "WIND BLOCK" AND MOST OF
THE SOUTHERN EL PASO COUNTY REGION SHOULD NOT SEE WINDS STRONG
ENOUGH TO WARRANT RED FLAG CONDITIONS. WINDS IN THE MTNS ARE GOING
TO BE STOUT TODAY, WITH GUSTS IN THE 30 TO 40 MPH RANGE, AND WITH
SUCH LOW DEWPOINTS (AND CORRESPONDING RH VALUES IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS), CONDITIONS WILL BE PRIME FOR RAPID FIRE SPREAD IF A FIRE
WERE TO START. I SHOULD NOTE THAT THE FUELS PAGE ACROSS THE ENTIRE
NWS PUEBLO FCST AREA IS NOW INDICATING CRITICAL CONDITIONS.
TONIGHT, DRY WITH POOR RH RECOVERY OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. TEMPS
IN THE 10S PLAINS, SINGLE DIGITS VALLEYS AND MTNS.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 258 AM MST TUE JAN 20 2026
WEDNESDAY...
IT WILL STILL REMAIN VERY DRY IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS BUT WINDS ARE
LIKELY TO BE LESS ACROSS THE REGION, THERE WILL BE SOME CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS, BUT THEY WILL BE MORE SPOTTY THEN TODAY.
WITH THAT SAID, WE MAY NEED TO ISSUE FIRE WX HILITES FOR A SMALLER
PART OF THE REGION IF WINDS BECOME STRONGER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.
TOMORROW WILL BE ANOTHER MILD DAY WITH READINGS IN THE 50S
PLAINS/40S VALLEYS AND 20S AND 30S MTNS.
THURSDAY...
THE LEADING EDGE OF THE COLDER AIR IS LIKELY TO NOW GET INTO THE
REGION EARLIER THAN EXPECTED AND TEMPS WILL LIKELY ONLY REACH INTO
THE 30S AND 40S PLAINS, AT THIS TIME THE FRONT WILL LIKELY PUSH
ACROSS THE PLAINS IN THE LATE MORNING, AND TEMPS MAY ACTUALLY START
TO FALL THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY ACROSS THE PLAINS.
COLD AIR WILL INFILTRATE INTO THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND LOW WILL
LIKELY BE IN THE 10S ACROSS THE PLAINS AND VALLEYS. SINGLE DIGITS
WILL NOT BE TOO FAR WAY; ACROSS W KS AND NE CO. LOW CLOUDS WILL
LIKELY MOVE IN AND COVER THE REGION BY EARLY TO MID EVENING, IT
SHOULD REMAIN DRY THOUGH.
FRIDAY...
COLD AIR SHOULD BE WELL ENTRENCHED OVER THE PLAINS. SOME REMNANT WAR
AIR MAY BE OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE RATON MESA REGION, BUT
SHOULD BE PUSHED OUT BY THE ARCTIC AIR BY MID DAY. AT THIS TIME IT
APPEARS THE COLD AIR WILL REMAIN SHALLOW AND THE SAN LUIS VALLEY MAY
REMAIN MILD FOR ONE MORE DAY. POPS WILL BEING TO INCREASE OVER
NEARLY ALL OF THE REGION AND LIGHT SNOW WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AS THE
MORNING PROGRESSES, WITH THE LIGHT SNOW INCREASING AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES.
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY....
FRIDAY NIGHT MAY NOT BE AS COLD AS IT COULD GET AS WE WILL LIKELY BE
OVERCAST OVER THE ENTIRE REGION AND MINS WILL LIKELY ONLY BE IN TEH
10S MOST AREAS WITH SOME SINGLE DIGITS FAR EASTERN PLAINS. LIGHT
SNOW WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE WIDESPREAD, AND POPS ARE IN THE
LIKELY CATEGORY DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.
SATURDAY TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE BELOW FREEZING ACROSS ALL OF THE
PLAINS AND LIGHT SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE, ALTHOUGH IT WILL LIKELY BE
DECREASING AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.
AS FOR THE PRECIP, THE COLD AIR AND UPSLOPE WILL BE IN PLACE. AT
THIS TIME A BROAD MID LEVEL TROUGH IS LIKELY GOING TO REMAIN TO OUR
WEST DURING THE FRIDAY/SATURDAY TIME PERIOD AND THIS QG FORCING WILL
LIKELY ENHANCE TO LIFT OVER THE REGION, SO CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING
THAT WIDESPREAD SNOW WILL OCCUR. ADDITIONALLY, A WEAK CLOSED LOW
OVER THE CALIFORNIA AREA MAY HELP DRAW UP SOME ADDITIONAL MID LEVEL
MOISTURE INTO THE SOUTHWEST AND THIS COULD ASSIST WITH SNOW
PRODUCTION. AT THIS TIME IT STILL LOOKS LIKE IT WILL REMAIN RELATIVE
LIGHT...1-3" PLAINS WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS MTNS.
FROM SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK IT SHOULD START TO WARM UP. HOWEVER THE
WARM UP SUNDAY MAY BE A BIT OPTIMISTIC AND THESE TEMPS MAY NEED TO
BE BE LOWERED IN LATER FORECASTS. \/HODANISH
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1034 AM MST TUE JAN 20 2026
VFR CONDITIONS AT COS, PUB AND ALS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, WITH
COS AND PUB SEEING SOME WAVE CLOUDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
WINDS AT COS TO BE GENERALLY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS MIXING
DOWN BETWEEN 21Z-24Z. WINDS SHIFT TO NORTH TO NORTHEAST AS
A WEAK FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE PLAINS, WITH EAST TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS LIKELY CONTINUING THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD.
WINDS AT PUB TO BE BREEZY WESTERLY THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON,
WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO EAST NORTHEAST THROUGH THE EVENING, WITH
SAID FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE PLAINS. WINDS TO STAY GENERALLY
LIGHT EASTERLY THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD.
WINDS AT ALS TO REMAIN IN A GENERAL LIGHT AND DIURNAL REGIME.
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COZ220>222-
225-226-228-229.
SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...MW
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