104
FXUS65 KPUB 202338
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
438 PM MST TUE JAN 20 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- VERY DRY AIR AND BREEZY CONDITIONS LEADING TO CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON.
- COOLER AND LESS WIND FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
- ARCTIC AIR MASS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION FRIDAY, LASTS INTO
SUNDAY.
- WIDESPREAD, GENERALLY LIGHT, SNOW ACCUMULATIONS LIKELY FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 213 PM MST TUE JAN 20 2026
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS IS INDICATING
INCREASING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION, AS ANOTHER EMBEDDED
SHORT WAVE, WITHIN THE BROAD LONG WAVE TROUGH IN PLACE ACROSS THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES AND CENTRAL CONUS, IS TRANSLATING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES AT THIS TIME. HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS WAVE IS MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES, WITH THE WAVES
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN PLACE ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA INTO
SOUTHEASTERN WYOMING AT THIS TIME. LEE (PRE-FRONTAL) TROUGHING IN
PLACE ACROSS I-25 CORRIDOR IS HELPING TO BRING GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS
OF 20 TO 40 MPH TO AREAS OVER AND NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN THIS
AFTERNOON, AS WILL AS HELPING TO BOOST TEMPERATURES INTO THE 50S
TO LOWER 60S ACROSS THE PLAINS AS OF 1 PM, WITH READINGS IN THE
30S AND 40S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. VERY DRY AIR IS IN PLACE
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO, WITH DEW PTS IN THE
-10F TO -20F COMMON IN THE WELL MIXED AREAS, LEADING TO RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES LESS THAN 5 PERCENT ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON!
NEEDLESS TO SAY, CURRENT RED FLAG WARNINGS IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE
EARLY EVENING, WHEN WINDS WILL DECOUPLE AND LESSEN.
THE PASSING WAVE WILL SEND A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ACROSS THE EASTERN
PLAINS THIS EVENING, WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASING BEHIND THE
FRONT OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE PLAINS. HOWEVER, THE DRY AIR REMAINS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN, WITH POOR RH RECOVERY OF 30-40
PERCENT, DESPITE OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS.
LOWS ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL BE IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S.
MODERATE NORTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY,
WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES ONCE AGAIN. LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE IN PLACE
ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO SEASONAL LEVELS
IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S, WITH HIGHS REMAINING IN THE 30S AND 40S
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WITH THE DRY AIR IN PLACE ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN, THERE WILL BE ELEVATED FIRE DANGER, ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE MID TO UPPER ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY. HOWEVER, THE CURRENT WIND
FORECAST DOES NOT SUPPORT WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
TOMORROW.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 258 AM MST TUE JAN 20 2026
THURSDAY...
THE LEADING EDGE OF THE COLDER AIR IS LIKELY TO NOW GET INTO THE
REGION EARLIER THAN EXPECTED AND TEMPS WILL LIKELY ONLY REACH INTO
THE 30S AND 40S PLAINS, AT THIS TIME THE FRONT WILL LIKELY PUSH
ACROSS THE PLAINS IN THE LATE MORNING, AND TEMPS MAY ACTUALLY START
TO FALL THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY ACROSS THE PLAINS.
COLD AIR WILL INFILTRATE INTO THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND LOW WILL
LIKELY BE IN THE 10S ACROSS THE PLAINS AND VALLEYS. SINGLE DIGITS
WILL NOT BE TOO FAR WAY; ACROSS W KS AND NE CO. LOW CLOUDS WILL
LIKELY MOVE IN AND COVER THE REGION BY EARLY TO MID EVENING, IT
SHOULD REMAIN DRY THOUGH.
FRIDAY...
COLD AIR SHOULD BE WELL ENTRENCHED OVER THE PLAINS. SOME REMNANT WAR
AIR MAY BE OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE RATON MESA REGION, BUT
SHOULD BE PUSHED OUT BY THE ARCTIC AIR BY MID DAY. AT THIS TIME IT
APPEARS THE COLD AIR WILL REMAIN SHALLOW AND THE SAN LUIS VALLEY MAY
REMAIN MILD FOR ONE MORE DAY. POPS WILL BEING TO INCREASE OVER
NEARLY ALL OF THE REGION AND LIGHT SNOW WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AS THE
MORNING PROGRESSES, WITH THE LIGHT SNOW INCREASING AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES.
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY....
FRIDAY NIGHT MAY NOT BE AS COLD AS IT COULD GET AS WE WILL LIKELY BE
OVERCAST OVER THE ENTIRE REGION AND MINS WILL LIKELY ONLY BE IN TEH
10S MOST AREAS WITH SOME SINGLE DIGITS FAR EASTERN PLAINS. LIGHT
SNOW WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE WIDESPREAD, AND POPS ARE IN THE
LIKELY CATEGORY DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.
SATURDAY TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE BELOW FREEZING ACROSS ALL OF THE
PLAINS AND LIGHT SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE, ALTHOUGH IT WILL LIKELY BE
DECREASING AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.
AS FOR THE PRECIP, THE COLD AIR AND UPSLOPE WILL BE IN PLACE. AT
THIS TIME A BROAD MID LEVEL TROUGH IS LIKELY GOING TO REMAIN TO OUR
WEST DURING THE FRIDAY/SATURDAY TIME PERIOD AND THIS QG FORCING WILL
LIKELY ENHANCE TO LIFT OVER THE REGION, SO CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING
THAT WIDESPREAD SNOW WILL OCCUR. ADDITIONALLY, A WEAK CLOSED LOW
OVER THE CALIFORNIA AREA MAY HELP DRAW UP SOME ADDITIONAL MID LEVEL
MOISTURE INTO THE SOUTHWEST AND THIS COULD ASSIST WITH SNOW
PRODUCTION. AT THIS TIME IT STILL LOOKS LIKE IT WILL REMAIN RELATIVE
LIGHT...1-3" PLAINS WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS MTNS.
FROM SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK IT SHOULD START TO WARM UP. HOWEVER THE
WARM UP SUNDAY MAY BE A BIT OPTIMISTIC AND THESE TEMPS MAY NEED TO
BE BE LOWERED IN LATER FORECASTS. \/HODANISH
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 435 PM MST TUE JAN 20 2026
A COLD FRONT WILL SHIFTS WINDS FROM THE NORTH AT KCOS AND KPUB
THIS EVENING WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KTS AHEAD AND BEHIND THE
WIND SHIFT. WINDS WILL TAIL DOWN TOWARDS MIDNIGHT WITH LIGHT
DIURNALLY DRIVEN WINDS FOR WEDNESDAY. KALS WILL SEE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH THE 24 HOUR PERIOD. OTHERWISE, SKIES WILL
REMAIN VFR. -KT
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COZ220>222-
225-226-228-229.
SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...KT
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