579
FXUS65 KPUB 211739
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1039 AM MST WED JAN 21 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- RED FLAG WARNING ISSUED FOR TODAY FOR A SMALL PART OF THE DISTRICT
- CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THAT DANGEROUS ARCTIC AIR WILL
AFFECT THE REGION STARTING LATE THURSDAY INTO SUNDAY
- WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW LIKELY, IT COULD BE RATHER WINDY WITH
VERY COLD TEMPS ON THE PLAINS FRIDAY.
- BEST CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD SNOW WILL BE DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 304 AM MST WED JAN 21 2026
CURRENTLY...
CLEAR SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. TEMPS
RANGED IN THE 20S ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH SINGLE DIGITS IN THE CENTER
OF THE SAN LUIS VALLEY. SOME L30S WERE NOTED OVER THE VALLEY FLOOR
IN CHAFFEE COUNTY
TODAY...
MAIN CONCERN IS FIRE WEATHER ACROSS PARTS OF THE DISTRICT
TODAY. AREA OF CONCERN IN TELLER, FREMONT AND THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS OF THE UPPER ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY REGION AS TDS
CONTINUE TO REMAIN VERY LOW AND WINDS ARE GOING TO GUST IN THE
25 TO 35 MPH RANGE. AT THIS TIME I DO NOT BELIEVE ANY OF THE
STRONGER WINDS WILL COME ONTO THE PLAINS BUT SOME LOCALIZED
GUSTS COMING OUT OF THE GAP FLOW AREAS CANT BE RULED OUT.
OTHERWISE...ANOTHER MILD DAY ACROSS THE REGION WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES AND MAX TEMPS IN THE U40S TO M50S ACROSS THE PLAINS, SAN LUIS
VALLEY SHOULD SEE MAX TEMPS IN THE 40-45F RANGE
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 304 AM MST WED JAN 21 2026
THURSDAY...
THE COLD AIR STARTS TO INFILTRATE INTO THE REGION. AN INITIAL
SUBTLE SURGE MAY COME INTO THE REGION DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS OF THURSDAY ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS AND THEN WASH
OUT. AS SURFACE PRESSURE INCREASES OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST, THE
COLDER AIR WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION AND "BACK DOOR" INTO OUR
REGION DURING THE LATE MORNING AND ESPECIALLY THE AFTERNOON TIME
PERIODS. MAX TEMPS ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL LIKELY OCCUR DURING
THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AND THEN COOL OFF AS THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY PROGRESSES. IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY ACROSS THE
REGION THURSDAY. THE COOL AIR WILL NOT GET INTO THE SAN LUIS
VALLEY. MAX TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE IN THE 40S MOST OF THE PLAINS
WITH TEMPS AROUND 50 ALONG THE MTN/PLAINS INTERFACE. LARGER
VALLEYS WILL BE IN THE 45-50F RANGE. UPPER TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS
SHOULD STEADILY INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES.
BY LATE THU AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING, LOW CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
ACROSS THE PLAINS, AND EXPECT ARCTIC AIR WITH LOW CIGS ACROSS ALL OF
THE PLAINS BY MIDNIGHT.
FRIDAY...
DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS, SKIES WILL LIKELY BE OVERCAST ALL
AREAS AND POP CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ALL AREAS. A
SECONDARY SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR WILL PUSH DOWN ACROSS THE PLAINS
AND IT WILL BECOME WINDY ACROSS THE PLAIN, EAST WINDS OF 20 TO
40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON TIME PERIOD, AND
THESE WINDS COMBINED WITH TEENS AND 20S ALONG WITH LIGHT SNOW
LIKELY OCCURRING OVER MOST OF THE REGION WILL MAKE FOR A
DANGEROUS WINTER ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE REGION. NO WINTER
HILITES HAVE BEEN ISSUED WITH THIS FCST PACKAGE, BUT COLD
WEATHER HILITES ALONG WITH SNOW ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED
WITH LATER FORECAST PACKAGES.
I SHOULD NOTE THAT THE SAN LUIS VALLEY AND THE UPPER ARKANSAS
RIVER VALLEY WILL REMAIN MILD AS THE ARCTIC AIR IS RATHER
SHALLOW AND WILL LIKELY NOT MAKE IT ABOVE 8000 FEET.
FRIDAY NIGHT....
VERY COLD WITH MIN TEMPS READINGS IN THE NEGATIVE 5 TO POSITIVE 5
DEGREE RANGE. WINDS WILL DECREASE SOMEWHAT, BUT IT STILL WILL BE
BREEZY AND DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE ALL OF THE
REGION. SNOW WILL BE ONGOING ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION AND THE
INTENSITY MAY PICKUP SOMEWHAT ESPECIALLY OVER THE MTNS.
SATURDAY...
THIS DAY WE WILL SEE THE UPWARD FORCING OVER THE REGION AND
BEST CHANCE FOR MORE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE REGION. IT IS
DURING THIS TIME THAT THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES OF SNOW WILL BE
OVER THE REGION (60-90%). ALL OF THE REGION WILL LIKELY SEE SNOW
FALL. THE OVERALL HEAVIEST SNOW WILL OCCUR OVER THE SAN JUANS
AND THE TOPS OVER THE SANGRES. PLAINS COULD SEE 0.5 TO 2' LATE
FRI NITE INTO THE DAY SATURDAY.
SATURDAY NIGHT...
PRECIP SHOULD DIMINISH FROM LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING. IF
WE CLEAR OUT AND THERE IS SNOW ON THE GROUND THEN WE COULD SEE TEMPS
TANK TO WELL BELOW ZERO F ACROSS THE REGION. FOR NOW SINGLE DIGITS
COVER THE ENTIRE FCST AREA, BUT THESE TEMPS COULD BE
SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER.
SUNDAY...
TEMPS WILL BEGIN WARM UP, BUT EXPECT TEMPS TO MAINLY REMAIN BELOW
FREEZING ACROSS THE FCST AREA, BEST CHANCE OF SOME TEMPS ABOVE
FREEZING WILL BE ALONG THE MTN/PLAINS INTERFACE AS SOME LOW LEVEL
WESTERLIES MAY BEGIN TO WARM UP IN THE DOWNSLOPE REGION.
EARLY NEXT WEEK...
TEMPS SHOULD QUICKLY WARM UP AS TEMPS ALOFT QUICKLY WARM UP AND 40S
SHOULD RETURN TO THE REGION BY MONDAY, WITH SOME 50S BY TUESDAY.
\/HODANISH
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1038 AM MST WED JAN 21 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KALS, KCOS, AND KPUB THROUGH 24
HOURS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND DIURNALLY DRIVEN.
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ220>222.
SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...GARBEROGLIO
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