146
FXUS65 KPUB 061738
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1038 AM MST FRI FEB 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TODAY, WITH DRY
WEATHER PERSISTING FOR ALL AREAS.
- OTHER THAN ISOLATED MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY, DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
- UNCERTAINTY EXIST IN PATTERN EVOLUTION NEXT WEEK, WITH LOW TO
MEDIUM (30-40%) CONFIDENCE IN ULTIMATE EVOLUTION.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 220 AM MST FRI FEB 6 2026
RIDGING CONTINUES, BUT BEGINS TO FLATTEN, OVERHEAD TODAY. THIS WILL
MEAN ANOTHER DAY OF HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 10 TO 15 DEGREES WARMER
THAN NORMAL RANGE. AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 60S ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
THE PLAINS, WITH 50S FOR MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. ALAMOSA MAY EVEN TIE OR
BREAK THEIR STANDING RECORD, WHICH CURRENTLY STANDS AT 59F. THEY ARE
FORECAST TO HIT 58F THIS AFTERNOON. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE
ALSO EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE MID-TEENS ACROSS THE SAN LUIS VALLEY
TODAY. THAT SAID, FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS ARE NOT LIKELY GIVEN WEAK
WINDS UNDER THE RIDGE THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS DO BEGIN TO INCREASE
LATER TONIGHT AS THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO FLATTEN AND WESTERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE TOP OF THE RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS THOUGH. THIS WILL KEEP MIXING GOING ALONG THE LEE SIDE OF THE
MOUNTAINS, AND WILL ALLOW FOR MUCH WARMER THAN NORMAL OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES. LOWS LOOK TO RANGE FROM TEENS AND TWENTIES OVER THE
HIGH COUNTRY, TO 30S ALONG AND NORTH OF THE LOWER ARKANSAS RIVER
VALLEY, TO 40S THROUGH THE BANANA BELT REGION OF OUR ADJACENT PLAINS
AND OUR SOUTHERN PLAINS.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 220 AM MST FRI FEB 6 2026
SATURDAY: FOR THE START OF THE WEEKEND, RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER
WILL BE IN PLACE FOR SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO. A
MESSY/WEAK WAVE WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
WHILE FORCING AND MOISTURE WILL REMAIN MINIMAL, ENOUGH OROGRAPHICS
MAY DEVELOP TO ALLOW FOR ISOLATED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE
MOUNTAINS. ELSEWHERE THOUGH, DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE. BEYOND ALL OF
THAT, SLIGHTLY BREEZY WINDS AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED FOR
THE REGION. AS FOR TEMPERATURES, A WARM AND ABOVE SEASONAL DAY IS
ANTICIPATED GIVEN MODEST DOWNSLOPING WINDS, WITH THE PLAINS IN THE
60S AND 70S, THE VALLEYS IN THE 50S, AND THE MOUNTAINS IN THE 30S TO
40S.
SATURDAY NIGHT - MONDAY: THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK, QUIET WEATHER PREVAILS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO. MESSY, BROADER RIDGING WILL BE IN PLACE OVER
THE AREA, AND GIVEN THE LACK OF ANY MAJOR FORCING, AND MINIMAL
MOISTURE, DRY CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED DURING THIS PERIOD.
OTHERWISE, BREEZY CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES IS EXPECTED.
LOOKING AT TEMPERATURES, THE WARM AND ABOVE SEASONAL TREND WILL
CONTINUE GIVEN NO MAJOR SYSTEMS AND PERIODS OF DOWNSLOPING WINDS IN
PLACE.
TUESDAY - THURSDAY: FOR THE MIDWEEK PERIOD, UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN
HOW ACTIVE WEATHER WILL BECOME FOR SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN
COLORADO. ORIGINALLY THINKING WAS THAT TROUGHING WOULD DEVELOP
DURING THIS PERIOD. HOWEVER LATEST ENSEMBLE AND DETERMINISTIC MODEL
GUIDANCE ARE MUCH LESS AMPLIFIED AND SLOWER WITH THE TROUGHING, WITH
HINTS THAT RIDGING MAY NOW REMAIN IN PLACE ENTIRELY. GIVEN THIS,
CONFIDENCE HAS ACTUALLY LOWERED TO LOW TO MEDIUM (30-40%) IN THE
OVERALL PATTERN EVOLUTION. IF THE TROUGHING SOLUTION WERE TO COME TO
FRUITION, THEN ACTIVE WEATHER WOULD RETURN, WITH PRECIPITATION
CHANCES INCREASING AREA WIDE, ESPECIALLY FOR THE MOUNTAINS. IF THE
RIDGING SOLUTIONS WERE TO COME TO FRUITION, DRY CONDITIONS WOULD BE
EXPECTED FOR MOST, WITH LOW COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION ALONG THE
MOUNTAINS GIVEN INFLUENCES FROM WEAK RIPPLES/WAVES WITHIN THE FLOW.
OUTSIDE OF ALL OF THAT, WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN BREEZY, WITH
AN UPTICK IN CLOUDS EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PERIOD WILL
BE HEAVILY INFLUENCED BY TROUGHING OR RIDGING, WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES WITH THE TROUGHING PATTERN, AND WARMER TEMPERATURES
WITH THE RIDING PATTERN.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1035 AM MST FRI FEB 6 2026
VFR AT ALL TAF SITES THE NEXT 24 HRS, WITH WINDS FOLLOWING THE
TYPICAL DIURNAL CYCLE UNDER 12 KTS.
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...EHR
LONG TERM...SIMCOE
AVIATION...PETERSEN
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