993
FXUS65 KPUB 062336
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
436 PM MST FRI FEB 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS IN THE SAN JUANS SATURDAY, DRY
ELSEWHERE WITH WARM AND BREEZY CONDITIONS
- BREEZY, MILD AND DRY SUNDAY AND MONDAY
- UNCERTAINTY EXIST IN PATTERN EVOLUTION NEXT WEEK, WITH LOW TO
MEDIUM (30-40%) CONFIDENCE IN ULTIMATE EVOLUTION
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 203 PM MST FRI FEB 6 2026
UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE ROCKIES ON SATURDAY, WHILE WEAK
CUT-OFF LOW DRIFTS ACROSS NRN MEXICO. LOW MAY PUSH JUST ENOUGH
MID-LEVEL MOISTURE NORTHWARD FOR A FEW AFTERNOON SNOW SHOWERS IN
THE SAN JUANS, BUT ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE SPOTTY AND LIGHT
AT BEST. MILD AND DRY ELEAZAR, WITH POTENTIAL FOR A FEW 70 DEGF
MAX TEMPS OVER THE PLAINS. WEAK LEE TROUGH ALONG I-25 AND
INCREASE IN WINDS ALOFT DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL GENERATE SOME
BREEZY GAP FLOWS SAT AFTERNOON THROUGH THE ARKANSAS VALLEY AND
DOWNSTREAM OF LA VETA PASS, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED
FIRE WEARER CONDITIONS FOR A COUPLE HOURS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 220 AM MST FRI FEB 6 2026
SATURDAY NIGHT - MONDAY: THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK, QUIET WEATHER PREVAILS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO. MESSY, BROADER RIDGING WILL BE IN PLACE OVER
THE AREA, AND GIVEN THE LACK OF ANY MAJOR FORCING, AND MINIMAL
MOISTURE, DRY CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED DURING THIS PERIOD.
OTHERWISE, BREEZY CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES IS EXPECTED.
LOOKING AT TEMPERATURES, THE WARM AND ABOVE SEASONAL TREND WILL
CONTINUE GIVEN NO MAJOR SYSTEMS AND PERIODS OF DOWNSLOPING WINDS IN
PLACE.
TUESDAY - THURSDAY: FOR THE MIDWEEK PERIOD, UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN
HOW ACTIVE WEATHER WILL BECOME FOR SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN
COLORADO. ORIGINALLY THINKING WAS THAT TROUGHING WOULD DEVELOP
DURING THIS PERIOD. HOWEVER LATEST ENSEMBLE AND DETERMINISTIC MODEL
GUIDANCE ARE MUCH LESS AMPLIFIED AND SLOWER WITH THE TROUGHING, WITH
HINTS THAT RIDGING MAY NOW REMAIN IN PLACE ENTIRELY. GIVEN THIS,
CONFIDENCE HAS ACTUALLY LOWERED TO LOW TO MEDIUM (30-40%) IN THE
OVERALL PATTERN EVOLUTION. IF THE TROUGHING SOLUTION WERE TO COME TO
FRUITION, THEN ACTIVE WEATHER WOULD RETURN, WITH PRECIPITATION
CHANCES INCREASING AREA WIDE, ESPECIALLY FOR THE MOUNTAINS. IF THE
RIDGING SOLUTIONS WERE TO COME TO FRUITION, DRY CONDITIONS WOULD BE
EXPECTED FOR MOST, WITH LOW COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION ALONG THE
MOUNTAINS GIVEN INFLUENCES FROM WEAK RIPPLES/WAVES WITHIN THE FLOW.
OUTSIDE OF ALL OF THAT, WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN BREEZY, WITH
AN UPTICK IN CLOUDS EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PERIOD WILL
BE HEAVILY INFLUENCED BY TROUGHING OR RIDGING, WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES WITH THE TROUGHING PATTERN, AND WARMER TEMPERATURES
WITH THE RIDING PATTERN.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 432 PM MST FRI FEB 6 2026
VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL THREE TERMINALS (KALS, KCOS, KPUB) THROUGH
THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH LIGHT WINDS. AN INCREASE IN MID AND UPPER
LEVEL CLOUDS IS FORECAST OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. MOZLEY
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...SIMCOE
AVIATION...MOZLEY
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