288
FXUS65 KPUB 071725
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1025 AM MST SAT FEB 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURES REMAIN 15 TO 20 DEGREES WARMER THAN NORMAL THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH DRY CONDITIONS PERSISTING FOR MOST AREAS.
- DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
- UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN PATTERN EVOLUTION NEXT WEEK, WITH
MEDIUM (40%) CONFIDENCE IN ULTIMATE EVOLUTION.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 252 AM MST SAT FEB 7 2026
TODAY AND TONIGHT..
TODAY IS A BIT OF A TRANSITION DAY, THOUGH APPRECIABLE WEATHER
CONDITIONS DO NOT CHANGE MUCH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. WE SIT
ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A FLATTENING RIDGE THIS MORNING. BY
THIS EVENING THOUGH, SUBTLE NORTHWEST FLOW REDEVELOPS, WITH A LOW
SITTING OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA. THIS WILL MEAN THAT OUR DAY STARTS
OUT WITH GUSTY WEST WINDS ACROSS THE TOP OF THE RIDGE, AND DAYTIME
HIGHS LOOK TO SOAR WELL ABOVE NORMAL ONCE AGAIN. TEMPERATURES LOOK
TO CLIMB CLOSE TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL, BUT WILL STILL BE AROUND
6 TO 7 DEGREES BELOW DAILY RECORDS. HIGHS IN THE 60S AND 70S ARE
EXPECTED ON THE PLAINS, WITH 50S FOR MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. WE REMAIN
DRY, ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE, WHERE HUMIDITY
VALUES IN THE TEENS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. SPOTTY CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY THROUGH OUR GAP FLOW AREAS IN
HUERFANO, EASTERN FREMONT, AND WESTERN PUEBLO COUNTIES LATE THIS
MORNING. WITH WINDS WEAKENING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS,
HIGHLIGHTS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME, BUT TRENDS WILL NEED TO BE
CLOSELY MONITORED FOR THESE AREAS. A FEW FLURRIES MAY BE BRIEFLY
POSSIBLE OVER THE SAN JUANS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE RIDGE
DECAYS, BUT ACCUMULATIONS AND IMPACTS ARE NOT EXPECTED. OVERNIGHT
LOWS REMAIN WARMER THAN SEASONAL NORMALS, WITH TEMPERATURES ONLY
FALLING INTO THE 30S AND 40S BY TOMORROW MORNING ON THE PLAINS, WITH
TEENS AND 20S FOR MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 252 AM MST SAT FEB 7 2026
SUNDAY: FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND, QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES FOR
SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO. BROAD RIDGING WILL BE IN
PLACE, AND GIVEN THE LACK OF ANY MAJOR FORCING, AND ONLY MINIMAL
MOISTURE IN PLACE, DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. OTHERWISE,
RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE ANTICIPATED FOR
THE REGION. LOOKING AT TEMPERATURES, ANOTHER WARM AND ABOVE SEASONAL
DAY IS EXPECTED, WITH 60S FOR THE PLAINS, 50S FOR THE VALLEYS, AND
30S TO 40S FOR THE MOUNTAINS.
SUNDAY NIGHT - MONDAY: HEADING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE QUIET
WEATHER REMAINS IN PLACE FOR SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN
COLORADO. BROAD RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION, AND
AGAIN GIVEN THE LACK OF ANY MAJOR FORCING, ALONG WITH ONLY MODEST
MOISTURE, DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE AREA. OUTSIDE OF THAT,
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PERSIST, WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS CONTINUING,
THOUGH WITH BREEZIER CONDITIONS WITHIN TYPICAL GAP FLOW PRONE AREAS.
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO CONTINUE WITH THE ABOVE SEASONAL VALUES
TREND, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE PLAINS.
TUESDAY - FRIDAY: FOR THE REST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD, UNCERTAINTY
DOES STILL EXIST IN HOW THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL EVOLVE OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO. THE BIGGEST UNCERTAINTY LIES IN
HOW QUICK AND HOW INTENSELY TROUGHING DEVELOPS DURING THIS PERIOD,
AS MODEL GUIDANCE HAS LESSENED AMPLIFICATION OF THE TROUGHING AND
SLOWED IT DOWN, PUSHING IT NOW ACROSS THE REGION MORE THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. GIVEN THIS, CONFIDENCE IS STILL ONLY MEDIUM (40%) IN THE
ULTIMATE PATTERN EVOLUTION. AT THIS POINT, BROAD RIDGING IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN IN PLACE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, WITH A DRIER TREND
ANTICIPATED, AND ONLY LOW COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION ALONG THE
MOUNTAINS. FOR THE END OF THE WEEK, AS TROUGHING TO SOME EXTENT
PASSES OVER, PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME
HEIGHTENED AREA WIDE, BUT ESPECIALLY ALONG THE MOUNTAINS. BEYOND
ALL OF THAT, BREEZY CONDITIONS AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER WILL
BE IN PLACE GIVEN THE UNSETTLED PATTERN. AS FOR TEMPERATURES,
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE NEAR TO ABOVE
SEASONAL VALUES, WITH TEMPERATURES THEN BECOMING COOLER THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY AS THE TROUGHING FINALLY PUSHES OVER.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1021 AM MST SAT FEB 7 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS, INCLUDING THE THREE MAIN TAF SITES OF KCOS, KPUB
AND KALS. WEAK DISTURBANCE PASSING ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE STATE WILL PRODUCE AT TIMES GUSTY W-NW WINDS ALONG THE I-25
CORRIDOR AND EASTERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON, AFFECTING KCOS AND
KPUB, BEFORE A N-NW SURFACE FLOW AT 9-12 KTS SETTLES IN BETWEEN
22Z-00Z AND CONTINUES INTO THE EVENING. MOORE
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...EHR
LONG TERM...SIMCOE
AVIATION...MOORE
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