128
FXUS65 KPUB 080504
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1004 PM MST SAT FEB 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY.
- INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
MONDAY AFTERNOON ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR.
- UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN PATTERN EVOLUTION NEXT WEEK, WITH
MEDIUM (40%) CONFIDENCE IN ULTIMATE EVOLUTION.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 211 PM MST SAT FEB 7 2026
CURRENTLY...AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WAS CROSSING THE ROCKIES TODAY,
BRUSHING ACROSS NORTHERN CO AND PRODUCING SOME GUSTY WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND I-25 CORRIDOR. SPOTTY
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WERE BEING OBSERVED AS WELL, BUT
COVERAGE IS SOMEWHAT SPARSE, SO NO HIGHLIGHTS WERE DEEMED NECESSARY.
AS OF 2 PM TEMPS HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE 50S FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS, AND
MID 60S TO MID 70S FOR THE PLAINS.
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...THE UPPER DISTURBANCE TO THE NORTH IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE PUSHING EAST AND OUT OF THE AREA THROUGH THIS
EVENING. MEANWHILE, THERE IS AN IMPRESSIVE UPPER LOW CENTER PARKED
JUST OFF THE COAST OF THE CA BAJA THAT MODELS SAY WILL LIKELY REMAIN
THERE UNTIL MAYBE MON. THIS LOW IS TOO FAR SOUTH TO REALLY HAVE ANY
EFFECT ON CO JUST YET, SO A BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AND REALLY INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE
UPCOMING WORK WEEK. THEREFORE, THE PASSING FEATURE TO THE NORTH
TONIGHT WILL PRODUCE NORTH TO NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS ACROSS THE
EASTERN PLAINS, WITH DECREASING HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS AND LOW TEMPS
IN THE TEENS TO MID 20S FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS, AND UPPER 20S TO MID
30S FOR THE PLAINS. EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE FOR SUNDAY, WITH HIGHS
IN THE 50S FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS, AND 60S TO NEAR 70F FOR THE PLAINS.
MOORE
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 252 AM MST SAT FEB 7 2026
SUNDAY NIGHT - MONDAY: HEADING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE QUIET
WEATHER REMAINS IN PLACE FOR SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN
COLORADO. BROAD RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION,
AND AGAIN GIVEN THE LACK OF ANY MAJOR FORCING, ALONG WITH ONLY
MODEST MOISTURE, DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE AREA.
OUTSIDE OF THAT, MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PERSIST, WITH RELATIVELY
LIGHT WINDS CONTINUING, THOUGH WITH BREEZIER CONDITIONS WITHIN
TYPICAL GAP FLOW PRONE AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO CONTINUE
WITH THE ABOVE SEASONAL VALUES TREND, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
PLAINS.
TUESDAY - FRIDAY: FOR THE REST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD, UNCERTAINTY
DOES STILL EXIST IN HOW THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL EVOLVE OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO. THE BIGGEST UNCERTAINTY LIES IN
HOW QUICK AND HOW INTENSELY TROUGHING DEVELOPS DURING THIS PERIOD,
AS MODEL GUIDANCE HAS LESSENED AMPLIFICATION OF THE TROUGHING AND
SLOWED IT DOWN, PUSHING IT NOW ACROSS THE REGION MORE THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. GIVEN THIS, CONFIDENCE IS STILL ONLY MEDIUM (40%) IN THE
ULTIMATE PATTERN EVOLUTION. AT THIS POINT, BROAD RIDGING IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN IN PLACE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, WITH A DRIER TREND
ANTICIPATED, AND ONLY LOW COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION ALONG THE
MOUNTAINS. FOR THE END OF THE WEEK, AS TROUGHING TO SOME EXTENT
PASSES OVER, PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME
HEIGHTENED AREA WIDE, BUT ESPECIALLY ALONG THE MOUNTAINS. BEYOND
ALL OF THAT, BREEZY CONDITIONS AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER WILL
BE IN PLACE GIVEN THE UNSETTLED PATTERN. AS FOR TEMPERATURES,
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE NEAR TO ABOVE
SEASONAL VALUES, WITH TEMPERATURES THEN BECOMING COOLER THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY AS THE TROUGHING FINALLY PUSHES OVER.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1003 PM MST SAT FEB 7 2026
VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL THREE TERMINALS (KALS, KCOS, KPUB) THROUGH
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PERIODS OF CIRRUS ACROSS THE AREA ARE
EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AND INTO THE EVENING. MOZLEY
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 211 PM MST SAT FEB 7 2026
CONFIDENCE IS STARTING TO INCREASE ON POTENTIAL CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS MONDAY AFTERNOON, PARTICULARLY IN FREMONT,
PUEBLO AND HUERFANO COUNTIES. WILL HOLD OFF ON A HIGHLIGHT
ISSUANCE AT THIS TIME, BUT LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE IS INDICATING A
5 TO 6 HR TIME WINDOW WHEN CONDITIONS COULD OCCUR. FOLLOWING
SHIFTS MAY NEED TO HOIST A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IF UPDATED MODEL
DATA CONTINUES THIS TREND.
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...SIMCOE
AVIATION...MOZLEY
FIRE WEATHER...MOORE
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