859
FXUS65 KPUB 091751
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1051 AM MST MON FEB 9 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- RED FLAG WARNINGS EXPANDED TO INCLUDE THE LOWER EASTERN SLOPES OF
THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS.
- COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH MONDAY EVENING, COOLER WEATHER ALL
AREAS THEREAFTER.
- SNOW SHOWERS RETURN TO THE FORECAST FOR THE HIGH COUNTRY
STARTING TUESDAY NIGHT, WITH RAIN AND SNOW POSSIBLE ON THE
PLAINS BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 234 AM MST MON FEB 9 2026
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT INCREASES ON MONDAY BRINGING UNSEASONABLY WARM,
DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS TO SOUTHERN CO. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN FOR THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE
SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT I-25 CORRIDOR AND SOUTHERN PLAINS.
ADDED ZONE 225 (SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS) TO CURRENT SUITE OF RED FLAG
WARNINGS AS HUMIDITY LEVELS BELOW 15 PERCENT WILL BE EASILY ACHIEVED
ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES WHERE HREF PROBABILITIES OF GREATER THAN 25
MPH WINDS ARE RUNNING AROUND 70% OR GREATER. JUXTAPOSITION OF GUSTY
WINDS WITH LOW HUMIDITY IS NOT AS GREAT OVER EASTERN LAS ANIMAS
COUNTY WHERE THE SURFACE LOW SETS UP, BUT WESTERN AND SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE ZONE COULD STILL SEE A COUPLE HOURS OF RED FLAG
CONDITIONS SO WILL MAINTAIN CURRENT HIGHLIGHTS. OTHER AREAS THAT
COULD SEE SPOTTY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE SOUTHERN
AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF EL PASO COUNTY, AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
CHAFFEE COUNTY. BUT CONDITIONS DO NOT LOOK AS PERSISTENT OR
WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO EXPAND HIGHLIGHTS. OTHERWISE, TEMPERATURES
TODAY WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH TEMPERATURES APPROACHING
RECORDS FOR THIS DATE OF:
KCOS: 71 IN 1996
KPUB: 78 IN 1996
KALS: 59 IN 2018
KALS WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF A TIE OR RECORD BREAK.
A DISTURBANCE IN WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PASSES TO THE NORTH SENDING A
DRY COLD FRONT THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS TONIGHT. NORTH WINDS
WILL BE GUSTY (30-35 MPH) FOR A FEW HOURS BEHIND THE FRONT,
ESPECIALLY NORTHERN AREAS. THIS WILL RESULT IN A 15-20 DEGREE COOL
DOWN ACROSS THE PLAINS THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE
LOWER TO MID 50S. THE MOUNTAINS AND VALLEYS COOL OFF AROUND 3-5
DEGREES AS HEIGHTS ALOFT DECREASE SLIGHTLY. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTHERN CENTRAL MOUNTAINS BUT
NOT EXPECTING ANY APPRECIABLE MOISTURE.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 234 AM MST MON FEB 9 2026
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY..
OVERNIGHT LOWS TOMORROW NIGHT ARE FINALLY CLOSER TO SEASONAL
NORMALS FOLLOWING OUR COLD FRONT, WITH MOST LOCATIONS COOLING
DOWN INTO THE TEENS AND TWENTIES BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE OVER THE SAN JUANS AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS,
THOUGH LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. SNOWFALL RATES INCREASE A BIT THROUGHOUT
WEDNESDAY AS SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASES AND BETTER MOISTURE GETS
PULLED INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH.
ACCUMULATIONS FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT STILL LOOK TO
REMAIN FOCUSED OVER THE SAN JUANS AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WHERE
OROGRAPHICS WILL BE BEST FAVORED, BUT TOTALS LOOK TO CLIMB INTO
THE 2 TO 4 INCH RANGE FOR BOTH RANGES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. DAYTIME
HIGHS FOR PLAINS AND MOUNTAIN VALLEY LOCATIONS LOOK TO SOAR
RIGHT BACK INTO THE 60S AND 50S RESPECTIVELY, WHICH IS AROUND 15
TO 20 DEGREES WARMER THAN NORMAL, BUT WELL SHY OF ANY RECORDS.
WINDS WILL BE GUSTY, ESPECIALLY ALONG OUR EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND
ADJACENT PLAINS. THE SOUTHERN SANGRES ARE LIKELY TO SEE GUSTS
AROUND 55 MPH OR SO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WE REMAIN DRY EAST OF
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE, BUT HUMIDITY VALUES RECOVER BACK INTO
THE 20% RANGE, WHICH SHOULD HELP TO KEEP FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
AT A MINIMUM THROUGH MID-WEEK.
THURSDAY ONWARDS..
BY THURSDAY, MODELS BRING THE TROUGH ONSHORE AND TOWARDS THE
GREAT BASIN. SNOW CHANCES INCREASE AND SPREAD INTO OUR EASTERN
MOUNTAINS THROUGHOUT THE DAY, POSSIBLY PUSHING INTO THE PLAINS
BY THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES COOL DOWN CLOSER TO
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. SNOW CHANCES PERSIST INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT, THOUGH FORECAST QPF AMOUNTS ARE TRENDING DOWNWARDS FOR
ALL AREAS. MODELS BRING THE TROUGH PAST US BY AROUND SATURDAY,
WHICH WILL ALLOW US TO DRY OUT AND WARM UP A BIT THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND IF THE FORECAST STAYS ON TRACK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1045 AM MST MON FEB 9 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT COS, PUB AND ALS OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS. BREEZY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS TO DEVELOP AT THE
TERMINALS, ESPECIALLY AT PUB, THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON, WITH
RELAX TO WEAK NORTH TO NORTHWEST THROUGH THE EVENING. A WEAK
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT TO PUSH SOUTH AND WEST ACROSS THE PLAINS
THROUGH THE LATE EVENING, WITH BREEZY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS,
ESPECIALLY AT COS, THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. WINDS AT
COS AND PUB TO BECOME EAST TO SOUTHEAST LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD,
WITH A VERY LOW POTENTIAL OF SEEING LOW VFR/MVFR CIGS AT COS
AND PUB, WHICH WERE NOT INCLUDED IN THE TAF ATTM.
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ221-222-
225-228>230-233-237.
SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...EHR
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