248
FXUS65 KPUB 100513
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1013 PM MST MON FEB 9 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- RED FLAG WARNING EXPANDED, CONTINUES THROUGH 6 PM THIS EVENING.
- COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THIS EVENING; MUCH COOLER TOMORROW, DRY
BEHIND FRONTAL PASSAGE.
- UNSETTLED PATTERN DEVELOPS STARTING WEDNESDAY; BEST CHANCE
PRECIP OVER THE PLAINS IS THU NITE THRU FRI, OVER THE MTNS WED
INTO THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 202 PM MST MON FEB 9 2026
CURRENTLY...
A FEW HIGH CLOUDS WERE NOTED OVER EL PASO COUNTY AND WERE
PROGRESSING EAST, OTHERWISE IT WAS SUNNY OVER THE REGION DURING THE
NOONTIME HOUR. TEMPS WERE QUITE MILD WITH READINGS IN THE 50S AND
60S, WITH UPPER 60S OVER THE BACA COUNTY REGION. THE SAN LUIS VALLEY
WAS IN THE 30S WITH THE UPPER ARK RVR VALLEY IN THE 50S. MTNS WERE
IN THE 30S. RED FLAG CONDITIONS WERE OCCURRING AT CANON CITY,
WALSENBURG AND SPRINGFIELD AND OVER PARTS OF TELLER COUNTY PER
MESOWEST SITES.
REST OF TODAY....
RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MAINLY IN THE GAP FLOW
AREAS IN AND AROUND CANON CITY, AND THE GREATER WALSENBURG REGION.
ANOTHER AREA WILL BE JUST EAST OF WHERE THE SFC TROUGH IS OVER THE
PLAINS, MAINLY THE BACA COUNTY REGION. HIGHER EXPOSED AREAS OF
TELLER COUNTY WILL ALSO SEE RED FLAG CONDITIONS. ADDITIONALLY,
BASED ON DATA PRIOR TO NOONTIME, ZONE 220 WAS ADDED TO THE RED
FLAG WARNING (CENTRAL MTN REGION).
TONIGHT...
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO COME OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE EARLY THIS
EVENING AND MOVE THROUGH THE PLAINS PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT. NOT MUCH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WITH THIS BOUNDARY SO EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE NIGHT. SOME DENSER HIGHER CLOUDS WILL REMAIN OVER THE PIKE PEAK
REGION. COOLER AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE BOUNDARY, AND WE WILL NOT
SEE THE TYPICAL "BANANA BELT" WARM TEMPS ALONG THE MTNS/PLAINS
INTERFACE TOMORROW MORNING.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 202 PM MST MON FEB 9 2026
TOMORROW...
DRY AND COOL. CANT RULE OUT SOME LOW CLOUDS, ESPECIALLY OVER THE
PALMER DIVIDE DURING THE MORNING TOMORROW, BUT OTHERWISE IT WILL BE
COOL AND BREEZY DAY TOMORROW WITH UPSLOPE FLOW OVER THE PLAINS. IT
WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER TOMORROW WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S
ACROSS EL PASO COUNTY AND 50S ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE PLAINS. THE SAN
LUIS VALLEY WILL LIKELY BE THE WARMEST LOCATION TOMORROW, WITH
READING APPROACHING 60F. OVER THE CENTRAL MTNS THERE MAY BE A SNOW
SHOWER OR TWO AS MOISTURE GRADUALLY INCREASE OVER THIS REGION.
WEDNESDAY...
TEMPS WILL REBOUND ON THIS DAY AS RIDGING ALOFT BUILDS OVER THE
REGION IN ADVANCE OF A PACIFIC TROUGH DEVELOPING JUST OFFSHORE OF
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. ADDITIONALLY, MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING AT MID
AND UPPER LEVELS AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO WARM
UP INTO THE 60 OVER THE PLAINS WITH THE RATON MEAS REGION REACHING
THE UPPER 60S. THE SLV SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 50S. WITH THE
INCREASING MOISTURE, SNOWS SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE CONTDVD
REGION, ESPECIALLY LATER IN THE DAY WHERE WE MAY SEE AN INCH OR TWO
OF NEW SNOW FALL.
THURSDAY...
SNOW SHOWERS WILL WILL INGER IN THE CENTRAL MTNS BUT WILL BEGIN TO
RAMP UP AGAIN BY MID DAY AS A 2ND STRONGER DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO
COLORADO. IN ADDITION, SHOWER CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE OVER
THE PLAINS ADJACENT TO THE MTNS DURING THE AFTERNOON, WITH THE
ACTIVITY SLOWLY PUSHING EASTWARD OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS LATER IN
THE DAY. TEMPS ON THIS DAY WILL BE A BIT COOLER THAN ON WEDNESDAY,
BUT STILL WILL BE MILD.
THU NIGHT WITH TEMPS COOLING INTO THE LOW 30S, WE MAY SEE A MIXED
BAG OF PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING ON THE PLAINS, ESPECIALLY OVER
ELEVATIONS ABOVE 6000 FEET.
FRIDAY, NBM GUIDANCE SHOWS A VERY GOOD CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION OVER
THE FORECAST AREA AS A BROAD TROUGH APPROACHES THE REGION. GIVEN THE
LATEST DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE, IT APPEARS THE OVERALL BETTER CHANCES
OF PRECIP WITH THIS EVENT WILL OCCUR SOUTH OF US50 AS THE LOW
APPEARS TO BE TRACKING A BIT FARTHER SOUTH THAN EARLIER GUIDANCE.
LOOKING AT THE WEEKEND, SOME REMNANT SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY
IN THE DAY SATURDAY. SUNDAY LOOKS DRY WITH TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES
WARMER THAN SATURDAY. \/HODANISH
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1010 PM MST MON FEB 9 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST AT ALL THREE TERMINALS (KALS, KCOS,
KPUB) FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A COLD FRONT HAS DROPPED SOUTH
ACROSS KCOS AND KPUB WITH NORTH WINDS, WHICH COULD GUST IN
EXCESS OF 20 KTS AT KCOS. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE BY MORNING. MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED, WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOW STRATUS AT
KCOS AND KPUB IN THE MORNING. MOZLEY
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...MOZLEY
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