983
FXUS65 KPUB 101727
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1027 AM MST TUE FEB 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- COOLER ON TUESDAY WITH LIGHTER WINDS ACROSS THE PLAINS BUT WESTERLY
AFTERNOON BREEZES ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND VALLEYS.
- MORE ACTIVE PATTERN FOR MID WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A
COUPLE OF PACIFIC SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERN U.S.
WITH MOUNTAIN SNOWS AND SHOWERS AT TIMES ACROSS THE PLAINS.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1229 AM MST TUE FEB 10 2026
TODAY AND TONIGHT...
A COLD FRONT PUSHED THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS MONDAY EVENING WITH
GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS PROGGED TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT AROUND FROM
THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
AROUND 20 DEGREES COOLER ACROSS THE PLAINS THAN THOSE OF MONDAY.
THE MOUNTAINS AND VALLEYS WILL FEEL LITTLE AFFECT FROM THIS
SHALLOW FRONT WITH INCREASING WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT MIXING GUSTY
WINDS DOWN INTO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS IN THE AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES MAY COOL A COUPLE OF DEGREES AS HEIGHTS ALOFT
DECREASE A BIT WITH THE APPROACHING PACIFIC SYSTEM OUT WEST.
THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO SPREAD INCREASING MOISTURE INTO THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE TONIGHT ALLOWING SOME SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.
WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER, OVERNIGHT LOWS IN SOME OF OUR
INTERIOR VALLEYS (UPPER RIO GRANDE AND SAN LUIS) SHOULD STAY
FAIRLY MILD COMPARED TO READINGS OF LATE. LOWS REGIONWIDE WILL
BE IN THE 20S AND 30S FOR THE MOST PART.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1229 AM MST TUE FEB 10 2026
AS THE NEXT PACIFIC LOW PUSHES INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN CA ON
WEDNESDAY, SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL EJECT ACROSS CO THROUGH THE
DAY. THIS WILL SPREAD A ROUND OF SHOWERS INTO THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE
WITH A FEW SHOWERS SPREADING EASTWARD INTO THE SANGRES DURING THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. A FEW INCHES OF ACCUMULATION WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EASTERN SAN JUANS AND THE SAWATCH AND MOSQUITO
RANGES WITH AMOUNTS IN THE 2 TO 7 INCH RANGE BY EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. THE PLAINS NOW STAY LARGELY DRY WITH TEMPERATURES
REBOUNDING AS LEE SIDE TROUGHING REDEVELOPS AND KICKS EASTWARD.
WARMEST READINGS WILL BE SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 WHERE READINGS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 60S WILL BE POSSIBLE. REMAINDER OF THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS WILL WARM INTO THE 50S TO LOWER 60S, WITH 30S AND 40S
FOR THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS.
CO REMAINS BETWEEN SYSTEMS ON THURSDAY AS THE UPPER LOW DROPS
SOUTHWARD OFF THE CA COAST AND NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY DROPS THROUGH
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE OUT WEST ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS WITH A FEW SHOWERS SPREADING EASTWARD AT TIMES INTO THE
SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS REMAIN LIGHT GIVEN
THE BEST FORCING STAYS WELL OFF TO THE SOUTHWEST. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.
THE SYSTEM FINALLY EJECTS THROUGH THE DESERT SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY
WITH PRECIPITATION SPREADING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
DIFFERENCES IN THE STORM TRACK STILL ABOUND WITH THE OPERATIONAL
CANADIAN AND ITS ENSEMBLES STILL ON THE MORE NORTHERN ENVELOPE
OF STORM TRACKS, SPREADING WIDESPREAD RAIN AND HIGHER ELEVATION
SNOW ACROSS SOUTHERN CO FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING AS
THE UPPER LOW EJECTS INTO THE TX/OK PANHANDLES. GFS AND EC ARE
FARTHER SOUTH, KEEPING MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION TO OUR SOUTH.
NBM SEEMS TO HAVE QUITE A BIT OF CANADIAN AND SOME 00Z GFS
ENSEMBLE INFLUENCE WITH HEAVIER QPF ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS
THAN OPERATIONAL GFS AND 00Z EC SUGGEST. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE FOR
PRECIPITATION STILL FAVORS LOCATIONS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50. IT'S
POSSIBLE SOME OF OUR SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS MAY SEE ADVISORY
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WITH NBM PROBABILITIES OF UP TO 50% FOR
AMOUNTS 6 INCHES OR MORE. PROBABILITIES DROP TO AROUND 20% OR
LESS FOR AMOUNTS GREATER THAN 8 INCHES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
MOUNTAINS. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME COOLING TO THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS
AS IT MOVES THROUGH BUT ITS WARM SOURCE REGION SHOULD KEEP
PRECIPITATION TYPES MOSTLY AS RAIN.
UPPER RIDGING RETURNS FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH A RETURN TO DRY AND
WARMER CONDITIONS. -KT
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1027 AM MST TUE FEB 10 2026
KALS: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 24 HOURS. WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON WITH GUST A BIT OVER 20 KNOTS OR SO, BEFORE WANING OFF
THIS EVENING, WITH INCREASING MID-LEVEL CLOUDS OVERNIGHT.
KCOS AND KPUB: THERE ARE SOME LINGERING CLOUDS BETWEEN 3KFT-6KFT
THIS MORNING, WHICH SHOULD CLEAR BY 20-21Z OR SO. AFTER THAT, VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 24 HOURS. WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL
BE BREEZY AND OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST, AND MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...KT
AVIATION...GARBEROGLIO
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