871
FXUS65 KPUB 111125
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
425 AM MST WED FEB 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- FIRST ROUND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW EXPECTED FOR THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
- SECOND STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
TO SOUTHERN CO FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
- WINDY CONDITIONS EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE SNOW AND HIGH FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS FOR
THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1214 AM MST WED FEB 11 2026
UPPER LOW ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL CALIFORNIA WILL DROP SOUTHWARD
TONIGHT PUTTING CO UNDER STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. PACIFIC
MOISTURE WILL PUSH INTO THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WITH SNOW SHOWERS
INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY, AS AN UPPER JET AND ASSOCIATED
DISTURBANCE EJECTS ACROSS CO AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM OUT WEST.
TEMPERATURES REBOUND ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS AS LEE TROUGHING
DEVELOPS AND KICKS EASTWARD TONIGHT AS THE WAVE CROSSES THE
MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM THE MOST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 WHERE HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB BACK
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S IN INCREASING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW. THE
PLAINS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50 MAINTAIN MORE OF A SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY
WIND COMPONENT KEEPING HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60. MOUNTAIN
VALLEYS WILL SEE BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS MIX DOWN IN THE AFTERNOON
WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S.
SNOWFALL INCREASES IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH SNOWFALL TOTALS
IN THE 3 TO 7 INCH RANGE ACROSS THE EASTERN SAN JUANS AND SAWATCH
AND MOSQUITO RANGE BY EARLY THU AM. QUICK CHECK OF HREF AND NATIONAL
BLEND OF MODEL PROBABILITIES SHOW ODDS OF 24 HOUR SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
EXCEEDING 6 INCHES (LOW END ADVISORY AMOUNTS) STAYS UNDER 40 PERCENT
AND PROBABILITIES OF 8 INCHES OR MORE REMAIN WELL UNDER 20%. ALL IN
ALL, WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES DO NOT LOOK WARRANTED AT THIS TIME
GIVEN THESE LOW PROBABILITIES. LOW TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WILL REMAIN ON THE MILD SIDE AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS WILL BE NON-EXISTENT AS DOWNSLOPE FLOW DOMINATES.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1214 AM MST WED FEB 11 2026
PACIFIC LOW ACROSS CENTRAL CA CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTHWARD THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH TROUGHING OUT WEST MOVING INTO THE GREAT BASIN.
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY KICKS OUT ACROSS CO. AFTER A
BRIEF LULL IN PRECIPITATION THURSDAY MORNING, IT SHOULD PICK UP
AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH A FEW SHOWERS SPILLING OUT
INTO THE ADJACENT PLAINS THURSDAY EVENING, ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE
ARKANSAS RIVER. THURSDAY WILL BE WARM AGAIN WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S
ACROSS THE PLAINS, 50S VALLEYS, AND 30S AND 40S FOR THE MOUNTAINS.
SNOW ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WILL REMAIN LIGHT, PERHAPS ANOTHER INCH OR
TWO THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. ANY SHOWERS THAT SPREAD OFF INTO THE
ADJACENT PLAINS WILL REMAIN PRIMARILY AS RAIN. PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS WILL BE VERY SPOTTY AND LIGHT ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS
WITH NOT ENOUGH TO BE CONSIDERED A WETTING PRECIPITATION EVENT.
MORE ACTIVE WEATHER SPREADS IN FOR FRIDAY AS THE CA LOW PUSHES
EASTWARD THROUGH THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND ACROSS NM INTO WEST TX/OK
BY MID DAY SATURDAY. EMPHASIS FOR THE GREATEST AMOUNT OF
PRECIPITATION STAYS SOUTH OF THE ARKANSAS RIVER AND AMOUNTS DO NOT
LOOK ALL THAT SUBSTANTIAL. NATIONAL BLEND OF MODELS KEEPS ODDS OF
GREATER THAN 6 INCHES OF SNOW AT LESS THAN 20% ACROSS THE EASTERN
SAN JUANS AND SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS. THIS WILL BE
ANOTHER WARM SOURCE REGION STORM, SO THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS WILL SEE A
CHANCE OF RAIN, THOUGH AMOUNTS ARE LOOKING LIGHT AT THIS POINT,
PERHAPS UP TO 0.10 TO 0.15 NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50, AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR CLOSE TO A HALF INCH OF LIQUID ALONG THE SOUTHERN CO BORDER.
TEMPERATURES COOL BACK DOWN AGAIN FOR FRIDAY THOUGH HIGHS WILL STILL
BE AROUND OR A LITTLE ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.
THE WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS ACTIVE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
CONTINUED CHANCES OF SNOW FOR THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. TEMPERATURES
WARM BACK UP AS SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF ANOTHER STORM
SYSTEM MOVES ON SHORE OUT WEST WHICH EJECTS ACROSS CO DURING THE
MON/TUE TIMEFRAME. THIS WILL BE ANOTHER WARM AND WINDY EVENT FOR THE
PLAINS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS,
ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY AS THE SYSTEM CROSSES THE MOUNTAINS. WE COULD
BE DEALING WITH HIGH WIND OR NEAR HIGH WIND CRITERIA ACROSS THE
PLAINS TUE BASED ON PATTERN RECOGNITION. MEANWHILE, THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE SHOULD PICK UP MORE SNOW AS SOUTHWEST FUNNELS PACIFIC
MOISTURE INTO THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. BEST OROGRAPHIC FORCING
SHOULD FOCUS HEAVIER AMOUNTS ACROSS THE EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS.
THERE ARE STILL SOME TIMING/AMPLITUDE DIFFERENCES THIS FAR OUT AND
DETAILS ARE STILL MURKY, SO TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED
CLOSELY. -KT
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 424 AM MST WED FEB 11 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR ALL THREE TAF SITES, KCOS, KPUB, AND
KALS, FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST FROM AROUND
20 TO 25KT AT KALS AND KCOS, WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS DEVELOPING FOR
KPUB.
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...KT
AVIATION...EHR
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