561
FXUS65 KPUB 120513
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1013 PM MST WED FEB 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT TO BRIEFLY MODERATE SNOW TO CONTINUE ALONG THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY, AND A FEW
SPRINKLES/FLURRIES/SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE EASTERN MOUNTAINS
AND PIKES PEAK REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON
- SECOND STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS TO SOUTHERN CO FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING, WITH SNOW
LEVEL REMAINING HIGH, GENERALLY ABOVE 6500 FEET
- WINDY CONDITIONS EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE SNOW AND HIGH FIRE DANGER FOR THE SOUTHEAST
PLAINS MONDAY AND TUESDAY
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 131 PM MST WED FEB 11 2026
SNOW HAS BEEN SLOW TO GET GOING TODAY OVER THE MOUNTAINS, THOUGH
AT MID-AFTERNOON RADAR AND OBS SUGGEST AT LEAST LIGHT SNOW
FALLING ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. WINDOW FOR BEST
ACCUMULATIONS STARTS NOW AND LASTS THROUGH THE NIGHT, BEFORE
ACTIVITY TAPERS OFF THE FLURRIES BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. AMOUNTS
STILL DON'T LOOK HIGH ENOUGH FOR HIGHLIGHTS, AS NBM
PROBABILITIES FOR 6 INCHES OR MORE REMAIN AROUND 40 PERCENT,
AND CONFINED TO THE HIGHER PEAKS OF THE SAWATCH RANGE FROM
INDEPENDENCE PASS NORTHWARD, LIGHTER AMOUNTS OF 1-4 INCHES
FARTHER SOUTH. AS WAVE PASSES THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY, EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND PIKES PEAK REGION MAY SEE SOME
SPILLOVER SHOWERS, THOUGH PRECIP AMOUNTS LOOK MEAGER, AND LOWER
ELEVATIONS MAY SEE MORE VIRGA THAN ANYTHING GIVEN WARM SURFACE
TEMPS (50S/60S PLAINS 40S/50S MOUNTAINS/VALLEYS).
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 131 PM MST WED FEB 11 2026
SOMEWHAT OF A LULL IN PRECIP THU NIGHT/FRI MORNING, BEFORE UPPER
LOW OVER CALIFORNIA MAKES THE TURN AND BEGINS TO PUSH EASTWARD
THROUGH THE DESERT SW FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. PRECIP REACHES
THE ERN SAN JUANS BY MIDDAY FRI, SPREADING SLOWLY EASTWARD OVER
MOST OF THE HIGH TERRAIN/INTERIOR VALLEYS FRI AFTERNOON/EVENING.
FOR THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS/I-25/SOUTHEAST PLAINS, BEST WINDOW FOR
PRECIP WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING, WITH PRECIP
LINGERING INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON ALONG THE THE NM BORDER INTO
BACA COUNTY. IN GENERAL, SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA, SOUTH OF
HIGHWAY 50 CONTINUES TO LOOK MOST FAVORED FOR SIGNIFICANT
PRECIP (QPF 0.25-0.50 INCHES), HEAVIEST MAY END UP OVER THE FAR
SOUTHEAST PLAINS IN BACA COUNTY AS STORM WRAPS UP A BIT AND
ELONGATED TROWAL DEVELOPS. ALONG AND NORTH OF US50, QPF AMOUNTS
A LITTLE MORE QUESTIONABLE, AS AT LEAST A FEW MODELS/ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS SHOW VERY LIGHT PRECIP OF ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS AT MOST,
AS STORM TRACK MAY BE SLIGHTLY TOO FAR SOUTH FOR SIGNIFICANT
PRECIP HERE. SYSTEM CONTINUES TO LOOK VERY WARM, WITH SNOW LEVEL
WELL ABOVE 7000 FEET INITIALLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON, FALLING ONLY
VERY SLOWLY TO AROUND 6500 FEET SAT MORNING. ONCE PRECIP ENDS
SAT, TEMPS SHOOT BACK UP INTO THE 50S/60S AT MOST LOWER
ELEVATIONS, EVEN WARMER SUNDAY, WITH NEAR 70F ON THE PLAINS, AND
50S/60S WIDESPREAD ELSEWHERE AS UPPER RIDGE BRIEFLY REBUILDS.
THE WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS ACTIVE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
CONTINUED CHANCES OF SNOW FOR THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. TEMPERATURES
WARM BACK UP AS SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF ANOTHER STORM
SYSTEM MOVES ON SHORE OUT WEST WHICH EJECTS ACROSS CO DURING THE
MON/TUE TIMEFRAME. THIS WILL BE ANOTHER WARM AND WINDY EVENT FOR THE
PLAINS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS,
ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY AS THE SYSTEM CROSSES THE MOUNTAINS. WE COULD
BE DEALING WITH HIGH WIND OR NEAR HIGH WIND CRITERIA ACROSS THE
PLAINS TUE BASED ON PATTERN RECOGNITION. MEANWHILE, THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE SHOULD PICK UP MORE SNOW AS SOUTHWEST FUNNELS PACIFIC
MOISTURE INTO THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. BEST OROGRAPHIC FORCING
SHOULD FOCUS HEAVIER AMOUNTS ACROSS THE EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS.
THERE ARE STILL SOME TIMING/AMPLITUDE DIFFERENCES THIS FAR OUT AND
DETAILS ARE STILL MURKY, SO TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED
CLOSELY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1011 PM MST WED FEB 11 2026
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT ALL THREE TERMINALS
(KALS, KCOS, KPUB). PERIODS OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE STATE. THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY (<20%) FOR
PATCHY LOW STRATUS AROUND 6 KFT AT KPUB AND KCOS AROUND
DAYBREAK. MOZLEY
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...PETERSEN
AVIATION...MOZLEY
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