643
FXUS65 KPUB 120735
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1235 AM MST THU FEB 12 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ROUNDS OF SNOW EXPECTED ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE THROUGH THURSDAY
WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE PIKES PEAK REGION THURSDAY NIGHT.
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS REMAIN LIGHT.
- ANOTHER ROUND OF MOUNTAIN SNOW AND LOWER ELEVATION RAIN FOR SOUTHERN
AREAS FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
- WINDY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WITH HIGH FIRE DANGER POSSIBLE MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY STRONG WINDS ON
TUESDAY WITH HIGH END RED FLAG CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
- SEVERAL ROUNDS OF WIND DRIVEN SNOW POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1230 AM MST THU FEB 12 2026
A ROUND OF SNOW WILL CONTINUE IMPACTING THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND
WESTERN SLOPES OF THE SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTOS AT TIMES OVERNIGHT.
WEBCAMS SHOW OCCASIONALLY HEAVY SNOW IMPACTING MONARCH PASS, THOUGH
ACCUMULATIONS BASED ON SKI RESORT SNOW STAKE IS ONLY AROUND 2 INCHES
SO FAR. CURRENT SNOW SHOULD DECREASE HERE AROUND MIDNIGHT THEN RAMP
UP AGAIN FOR A BRIEF 2-3 HOUR WINDOW AROUND 12Z AS NEXT MINOR
IMPULSE IN SOUTHWEST FLOW MOVES THROUGH. OVERALL HREF AND NBM
PROBABILITIES OF OVER 6 INCHES OF SNOW IS LESS THAN 40% IN SPOTTY
AREAS ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WITH THE NAMNEST BEING THE ONLY
OPERATIONAL MODEL TO ADVERTISE AROUND 6-8 INCHES IN SPOTTY AREAS
ALONG THE SPINE OF THE SAWATCH RANGE. WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY
HIGHLIGHTS FOR NOW BUT WILL CONTINUE MONITORING RADAR/SAT AND
WEBCAMS CLOSELY AS MODELS COULD BE A LITTLE TOO FAR NORTH WITH THE
AXIS OF HEAVIER QPF. THE REMAINDER OF THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS COULD
SEE A FEW INCHES OF SNOW LATER TONIGHT, BUT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
SHOULD BE LIGHTER COMPARED TO FARTHER NORTH.
OTHERWISE, IT WILL WARM A FEW MORE DEGREES ON THURSDAY ACROSS THE
PLAINS WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S. A FEW SHOWERS COULD PUSH OFF THE
MOUNTAINS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS THE PIKES PEAK
REGION, BUT THESE SHOULD BE MAINLY RAIN OR A BRIEF RAIN/SNOW MIX
WITH LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION, ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE WARM
CONDITIONS.
THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING INTO SOUTHERN CA BY THURSDAY NIGHT
SPREADING MORE MOISTURE INTO THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE TOWARDS FRIDAY
MORNING. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD STAY MILD WITH ONLY SOME LIGHT SNOW
ACROSS THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS OUT WEST TOWARDS DAWN.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1230 AM MST THU FEB 12 2026
MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE MAIN ENERGY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST AND NM FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. NORTH OF HIGHWAY
50, SUSPECT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE UNDER 0.10 AND SOME AREAS
COULD SEE A ONLY A TRACE TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS AT BEST ACROSS EL PASO
COUNTY. TO THE SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50, PRECIPITATION AMOUNT WILL RANGE
FROM 0.1 TO 0.4 (GREATEST ACROSS THE EASTERN SAN JUANS AND
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTOS). PROBABILITIES OF OVER 6 INCHES OF
SNOW IS STILL QUITE LOW IN THE NATIONAL MODEL BLENDS WITH
PROBABILITIES OF OVER 6 INCHES UNDER 40 PERCENT IN SPOTTY AREAS.
SUSPECT QPF IN THE NBM IS A TAD OVERDONE STILL AND HAVE BLENDED
THEM DOWN A BIT, ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. THIS WILL BE
AN ALL RAIN EVENT FOR THE PLAINS GIVEN THE WARMTH OF THE
SYSTEM. SNOW LEVELS MAY DROP TO AROUND 6500 FEET BY SATURDAY
MORNING ACROSS THE PALMER AND RATON RIDGE, BUT AMOUNTS LOOK
LIGHT AND GREATEST OVER THE RATON RIDGE WHERE FISHER'S PEAK
COULD SEE A COUPLE INCHES THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
THE SYSTEM EXITS EASTERN CO ON SATURDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS
RETURNING. TEMPERATURES REBOUND BACK INTO THE 60S TO AROUND 70
ACROSS THE PLAINS ON SUNDAY WITH 50S ACROSS THE VALLEYS AND 30S AND
40S FOR THE MOUNTAINS. THE NEXT PACIFIC TROUGH ENTERS THE WEST COAST
ON MONDAY SETTING UP STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS CO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. SEVERAL DAYS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH SEVERAL
SHORTWAVES EJECTING ACROSS CO BRING ROUNDS OF STRONG WINDS. TUESDAY
WILL BE THE HIGHEST IMPACT DAY WITH LATEST NBM SHOWING PROBABILITIES
OF WIND GUSTS OF 58 MPH OR HIGHER (LOWER ELEVATION HIGH WIND
CRITERIA) UP TO 80% ACROSS THE SAN LUIS VALLEY AND MOST OF THE
SOUTHEAST PLAINS. PROBABILITY OF OVER 75 MPH WIND GUSTS (MOUNTAIN
HIGH WIND CRITERIA) ARE UP TO 80% ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND LOWER
EAST FACING SLOPES. MEAN HUMIDITY LEVELS ARE RUNNING AROUND 10-15%
IN FROM NBM MEANS, AND IT IS CONCEIVABLE THAT THEY COULD BE LOWER
GIVEN PATTERN RECOGNITION. THIS COULD PUT ANY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS INTO THE HIGHER IMPACT CATEGORY. THIS IS STILL MANY DAYS
OUT AND PRONE TO CHANGE BUT WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY. WEDNESDAY
WILL CONTINUE WINDY AND DRY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER REPEAT
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER DAY, THOUGH WIND GUSTS MAY NOT BE QUITE AS
HIGH AS THE UPPER JET SHIFTS SOUTHWARD.
MEANWHILE, THE MOUNTAINS, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE,
WILL SEE ROUNDS OF WIND DRIVEN SNOW AS EACH DISTURBANCE SENDS WAVES
OF MOISTURE INTO THE MOUNTAINS. OROGRAPHIC FORCING WILL BE GREATEST
ACROSS THE EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS GIVEN THE SOUTHWESTERLY WIND
COMPONENT. THESE SHOULD BE HEAVIER SNOW EVENTS WHICH COULD BRING
SOME MUCH NEEDED RECOVERY TO THE SNOW PACK, THOUGH LIKELY NOT ENOUGH
TO MAKE UP THE STRONG DEFICITS. ALTHOUGH THE TIMING OF EACH
SHORTWAVE IS STILL PRONE TO CHANGE, IT APPEARS THE BEST CHANCES WILL
COME TUESDAY WITH ANOTHER ROUND ON WEDNESDAY, AND AN ACTIVE WEATHER
PATTERN SUGGESTING ANOTHER ROUND LATE WEEK. -KT
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1011 PM MST WED FEB 11 2026
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT ALL THREE TERMINALS
(KALS, KCOS, KPUB). PERIODS OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE STATE. THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY (<20%) FOR
PATCHY LOW STRATUS AROUND 6 KFT AT KPUB AND KCOS AROUND
DAYBREAK. MOZLEY
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...KT
AVIATION...MOZLEY
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