283
FXUS65 KPUB 122119
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
219 PM MST THU FEB 12 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- MOUNTAIN SNOW AND LOWER ELEVATION RAIN SHOWERS SPREAD ACROSS
THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY, HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION SOUTHERN AREAS, SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50
- WINDY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WITH HIGH FIRE DANGER POSSIBLE MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY STRONG WINDS ON
TUESDAY WITH HIGH END RED FLAG CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
- SEVERAL ROUNDS OF WIND DRIVEN SNOW POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 151 PM MST THU FEB 12 2026
STILL SOME LIGHT SNOW ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE THIS
AFTERNOON, THOUGH BULK OF THE ACCUMULATING SNOW HAS NEARLY ENDED
AS UPPER WAVE SHIFTS EAST. ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL LINGER ACROSS
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT FOR SOME ON/OFF SNOW SHOWERS,
AND PERHAPS A SPRINKLE OR FLURRY/BRIEF SNOW SHOWER OVER THE
PIKES PEAK REGION AS WELL, THOUGH ANY OVERNIGHT ACCUMS LOOK
MINOR.
ON FRIDAY, WEST COAST UPPER TROUGH/LOW TURN THE CORNER AND HEAD
EAST THROUGH THE DESERT SW, REACHING CENTRAL NM BY EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. AS UPWARD MOTION INCREASES, SNOW WILL INCREASE
IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE FRIDAY
MORNING, THEN PRECIP SPREADS EASTWARD ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HEAVIEST RAIN/SNOW WILL OCCUR FRI NIGHT/SAT
MORNING, WITH SOUTHERN ZONES FAVORED GIVEN TRACK OF THE MID
LEVEL CIRCULATION THROUGH NM. SNOW LEVELS START REALLY HIGH ON
FRIDAY, ABOVE 8000 FEET, THEN SLOWLY FALL TOWARD 7000 FEET BY
SATURDAY MORNING, AS MID LEVELS FINALLY COOL A BIT. IN TERMS OF
SNOWFALL, HIGHER PEAKS OF THE SAN JUANS AND SOUTHERN SANGRES
WILL DO BEST, WITH SOME SPOTTY 6-8 INCH AMOUNTS ABOVE TIMBERLINE,
WITH A SLOPPY 2-6 INCHES OVER MOST MOUNTAIN PASSES. VALLEYS AND
PLAINS WILL SEE MAINLY RAIN, THOUGH A BRIEF MIX OR CHANGEOVER
TO SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY SATURDAY MORNING OVER THE SAN
LUIS/UPPER ARKANSAS VALLEYS AND ALONG THE PALMER DIVIDE/RATON
MESA. TOTAL QPF AMOUNTS AVERAGE FROM 0.2 TO 0.4 INCHES OVER
SOUTHERN SECTIONS, SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50, AREAS TO THE NORTH WILL
SEE LESS PERHAPS ONLY A TENTH OR SO. PRECIP ENDS FROM WEST TO
EAST SATURDAY MORNING, WITH SOME RAIN LINGERING INTO THE
AFTERNOON OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST CORNER AS UPPER SYSTEM DEEPENS
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND PRECIP SHIELD WRAPS BACK WESTWARD.
WITH LITTLE COLD AIR COMING IN BEHIND THE TROUGH AND SOME
AFTERNOON SUN, SAT MAXES WILL BOUNCE BACK INTO THE 40S/50S AT
MANY LOCATIONS, WITH EVEN SOME 60S OVER THE LOWER ARKANSAS
VALLEY.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1230 AM MST THU FEB 12 2026
TEMPERATURES REBOUND BACK INTO THE 60S TO AROUND 70 ACROSS THE
PLAINS ON SUNDAY WITH 50S ACROSS THE VALLEYS AND 30S AND 40S FOR
THE MOUNTAINS. THE NEXT PACIFIC TROUGH ENTERS THE WEST COAST ON
MONDAY SETTING UP STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS CO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. SEVERAL DAYS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH
SEVERAL SHORTWAVES EJECTING ACROSS CO BRING ROUNDS OF STRONG
WINDS. MONDAY LOOKS MOST QUESTIONABLE FOR FIRE WEATHER AND WIND,
AS MID LEVEL WINDS DON'T INCREASE UNTIL AFTERNOON AND SURFACE
FLOW, ESPECIALLY EAST OF I-25, KEEPS A MORE SOUTHERLY COMPONENT
THROUGH THE DAY.
TUESDAY WILL BE THE HIGHEST IMPACT DAY WITH NBM SHOWING
PROBABILITIES OF WIND GUSTS OF 58 MPH OR HIGHER (LOWER ELEVATION
HIGH WIND CRITERIA) UP TO 80% ACROSS THE SAN LUIS VALLEY AND
MOST OF THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS. PROBABILITY OF OVER 75 MPH WIND
GUSTS (MOUNTAIN HIGH WIND CRITERIA) ARE UP TO 80% ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS AND LOWER EAST FACING SLOPES. MEAN HUMIDITY LEVELS ARE
RUNNING AROUND 10-15% IN FROM NBM MEANS, AND IT IS CONCEIVABLE
THAT THEY COULD BE LOWER GIVEN PATTERN RECOGNITION. THIS COULD
PUT ANY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS INTO THE HIGHER IMPACT
CATEGORY. THIS IS STILL MANY DAYS OUT AND PRONE TO CHANGE BUT
WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY. WEDNESDAY WILL CONTINUE WINDY AND DRY
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER REPEAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
DAY, THOUGH WIND GUSTS MAY NOT BE QUITE AS HIGH AS THE UPPER JET
SHIFTS SOUTHWARD.
MEANWHILE, THE MOUNTAINS, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE,
WILL SEE ROUNDS OF WIND DRIVEN SNOW AS EACH DISTURBANCE SENDS WAVES
OF MOISTURE INTO THE MOUNTAINS. OROGRAPHIC FORCING WILL BE GREATEST
ACROSS THE EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS GIVEN THE SOUTHWESTERLY WIND
COMPONENT. THESE SHOULD BE HEAVIER SNOW EVENTS WHICH COULD BRING
SOME MUCH NEEDED RECOVERY TO THE SNOW PACK, THOUGH LIKELY NOT ENOUGH
TO MAKE UP THE LARGE DEFICITS. ALTHOUGH THE TIMING OF EACH
SHORTWAVE IS STILL PRONE TO CHANGE, IT APPEARS THE BEST CHANCES
WILL COME TUESDAY WITH ANOTHER ROUND ON WEDNESDAY, AND AN ACTIVE
WEATHER PATTERN SUGGESTING ANOTHER ROUND LATE WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1027 AM MST THU FEB 12 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KALS, KCOS, AND KPUB THROUGH 24
HOURS, WITH MID-LEVEL CLOUDS COVER INCREASING THROUGH TODAY AND
TONIGHT. WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AT
KALS, AND SOUTHEAST AT KCOS AND KPUB.
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...KT/PETERSEN
AVIATION...GARBEROGLIO
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