896
FXUS65 KPUB 060230
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
730 PM MST THU MAR 5 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HIGH FIRE DANGER CONTINUES THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY, AND IS
LIKELY TO RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- SNOW BEGINS LATE TONIGHT OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS, SPREADING THROUGH
THE REST OF THE HIGH COUNTRY AND INTO THE I-25 CORRIDOR EARLY
TOMORROW MORNING. TRAVEL IMPACTS ARE POSSIBLE FOR BOTH THE
MORNING AND EVENING COMMUTES TOMORROW OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE!
- WE WARM AND DRY BACK OUT THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 724 PM MST THU MAR 5 2026
WINDS HAVE SUBSIDED AND ALTHOUGH HUMIDITY VALUES ARE STILL LOW,
A SLOW RECOVERY IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW OUT WEST
CONTINUES TO TAKE SHAPE AND SHIFT EASTWARD. STARTING TO SEE
SIGNS OF A WAA PRECIPITATION BAND DEVELOPING ALONG THE MID LEVEL
FRONT WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE EASTWARD TONIGHT. QUICK
UPDATE MADE TO GRIDS AND PACKAGE TO ALLOW RED FLAG WARNING TO
EXPIRE AND TO ADJUST POPS A BIT LATER TONIGHT.
FULL PACKAGE RE-WORK UNDERWAY WITH CONTINUED FAVORABLE TRENDS
FOR SNOW IN AND NEAR THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS UPON INITIAL
INSPECTION. MAY NEED TO EXPAND SOME ADVISORIES DOWN THE SLOPES
A BIT ACROSS THE UPPER ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY AND WET MOUNTAIN
VALLEY DEPENDING ON HOW 00Z RUNS SHAPE UP. STILL LOOKS LIKE
HEAVIEST AMOUNTS ARE FAVORING WET MOUNTAINS THIS TIME, BUT WILL
SEE HOW THIS SHAPES UP AS DATA FILTERS IN. -KT
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1211 PM MST THU MAR 5 2026
CURRENTLY..
OUR INCOMING LOW CONTINUES TO TAKE SHAPE OVER THE GREAT BASIN,
INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER OUR REGION. AS OF NOON, SOUTHERLY AND
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG MUCH OF OUR MOUNTAIN
ADJACENT PLAINS, WITH TEMPERATURES ALREADY WARMING WELL INTO THE 50S
AND 60S. HUMIDITY VALUES HAVE ALREADY DROPPED INTO THE TEENS
AND LOW 20% RANGE FOR MANY LOCATIONS, WITH TRINIDAD ALREADY
SITTING AT 10%.
REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT..
NEAR RECORD DAYTIME HIGHS REMAIN POSSIBLE TODAY AS SOUTHWEST FLOW
INCREASES, WITH ALAMOSA STILL SET TO TIE THEIR STANDING RECORD AT
62F, AND BOTH COLORADO SPRINGS AND PUEBLO EXPECTED TO COME WITHIN A
FEW DEGREES OF THEIR STANDING RECORDS AS WELL. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS HAVE ALREADY BEEN MET FOR MANY LOCATIONS, AND ARE
EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH SUNSET ACROSS ALL WARNED AREAS FROM THE
SAN LUIS VALLEY THROUGH THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS, AND ACROSS THE ENTIRE
PLAINS. MINIMUM HUMIDITY VALUES LOOK TO DROP INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS WITH MAX WINDS GUSTS REACHING INTO THE 50 MPH RANGE OVER
THE SAN LUIS VALLEY, SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS, AND SOUTHERN PLAINS.
ONCE THE SUN SETS AND TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO COOL, HUMIDITY
VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE SUFFICIENTLY TO END FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS.
MODELS BRING A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR PLAINS AROUND MIDNIGHT,
SPREADING NORTHERLY WINDS, COOLER TEMPERATURES, AND CHANCES FOR
SHOWERY PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTHER I-25 CORRIDOR LATE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT LOOKS TO BE
SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO SPREAD SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGH COUNTRY
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS WELL, THOUGH SNOWFALL RATES LOOK TO
BE FAIRLY LIGHT TONIGHT, AND MAINLY CONCENTRATED OVER THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS AND THE SAN JUANS. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS GOES INTO EFFECT AT 9 AM TONIGHT, WHERE 5 TO 8
INCHES OF WIND DRIVEN SNOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
FRIDAY..
THE NAM CLOSES THE INCOMING LOW OFF BRIEFLY AS IT NEARS THE COLORADO
BORDER EARLY TOMORROW MORNING, BUT MODEL CONSENSUS SEEMS TO KEEP THE
WAVE OPEN OR AT LEAST OPEN BACK UP THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS IT
PASSES OVERHEAD. THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF INSTABILITY
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM, AND SHORT TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
HEAVIER BANDING POSSIBLE OVER OUR EASTERN MOUNTAINS, THE PIKES PEAK
REGION, AND POSSIBLY FREMONT COUNTY AS WELL. SNOWFALL RATES INCREASE
ACROSS THE AREA AS WE NEAR SUNRISE TOMORROW MORNING, WHICH MAY LEAD
TO TRAVEL CONCERNS FOR SOME AREAS. HIGHS CLIMB INTO THE 40S AND LOW
50S FOR MUCH OF THE PLAINS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON THOUGH, WHICH WILL
LEAD TO PERIODS OF RAIN AND MIXED PRECIPITATION, WITH ANY SNOW
LIKELY MELTING RIGHT AWAY FOR AREAS EAST OF I-25. THE PALMER DIVIDE
AND THAT STRETCH OF I-25 MAY BE PARTICULARLY HAZARDOUS TOMORROW
GIVEN EXPECTED GUSTY WINDS OVER THAT AREA. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO BE COOL ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOWFALL BY SUNRISE, WHICH WILL ALSO
LEAD TO SLICK ROAD CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA. NORTHERN EL PASO
COUNTY, THE SANGRES, THE WETS, AND THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF NORTHERN
FREMONT COUNTY HAVE ALL BEEN ADDED TO TOMORROW'S WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY, VALID FROM 6 AM THROUGH MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT. SNOWFALL
TOTALS IN THE MOUNTAINS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 5 TO 8 INCHES,
WITH TOTALS CLOSER TO 3 TO 5 INCHES FOR NORTHERN EL PASO, TELLER,
AND NORTHERN FREMONT COUNTY. IF CONVECTIVE TRENDS CONTINUE, SNOWFALL
TOTALS MAY NEED TO INCREASE OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF FREMONT
COUNTY, AND POSSIBLY OVER THE WET MOUNTAIN VALLEY AS WELL. BOTH OF
THESE AREAS MAY NEED TO BE ADDED TO HIGHLIGHTS AS SHORT TERM MODEL
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HONE IN ON THE EVENT. MODELS PUSH THE TROUGH
AXIS EAST OF US BY AROUND SUNSET TOMORROW EVENING, WITH PRECIP
CHANCES GRADUALLY COMING TO AN END THROUGH MIDNIGHT OR SO.
TOMORROW'S OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK TO BE MUCH COOLER THAN WE HAVE BEEN,
BUT VERY CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, WITH MOST OF OUR
PLAINS COOLING DOWN INTO THE 20S.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1211 PM MST THU MAR 5 2026
SATURDAY..
WE REMAIN COOLER THAN WE HAVE BEEN, BUT STILL VERY SEASONALLY NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, FOR OUR SATURDAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S AND
50S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. A FEW FLURRIES WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE FOR THE
SANGRES AND THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS, ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING, BUT
ANY NEW SNOW AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR. HUMIDITY VALUES LOOK TO ONLY DROP
INTO THE 20% OR HIGHER RANGE. OVERALL, SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE A
BEAUTIFUL MARCH DAY!
SUNDAY ONWARDS..
TEMPERATURES REBOUND, BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF WARMER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES, ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
DROP BELOW 15 PERCENT DURING THE AFTERNOONS BUT FLOW ALOFT REMAINS
FAIRLY LIGHT FOR SUNDAY BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN ON MONDAY AS THE
NORTHERN STREAM JET SAGS SOUTHWARD. THE CUT OFF LOW WHICH
RETROGRADES OFF THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA WILL
EVENTUALLY KICK EASTWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT LATEST ITERATIONS KEEP
THE STORM TRACK WELL TO OUR SOUTH FOR MUCH AFFECT. THE NORTHERN
STREAM FLOW BUCKLES A BIT BY TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY BUT LOOKS LESS
AMPLIFIED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AS IT TREKS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES AND INTO THE PLAINS. OVERALL THE FORECAST HAS TRENDED WARMER
AND DRIER TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, THOUGH IT STILL LOOKS
LIKE WE WILL SEE ANOTHER COLD FRONT DROP THROUGH THE PLAINS AT SOME
POINT. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY RETURN FOR TUESDAY AND
AGAIN ON THURSDAY DEPENDING ON FUELS STATUS, THOUGH ANY MITIGATING
IMPACTS FROM THE THURS NIGHT-FRI SNOWFALL MAY BE FLEETING GIVEN THE
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION DEFICITS.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 437 PM MST THU MAR 5 2026
AT KALS, VFR OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY FRI MORNING, THEN EXPECTING
OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY FRI AS WAVES OF SNOW
SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH THE SAN LUIS VALLEY.
AT KCOS/KPUB, VFR OVERNIGHT, WITH A COLD FRONT BRINGING GUSTY
NORTH WINDS OF 20-30 KTS AFTER 06Z-08Z. VCSH STARTING AROUND
14Z AS PRECIP DEVELOPS, WITH PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR THROUGH MUCH
OF THE DAY AS RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. STRONG
NORTH WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY AS WELL, WITH GUSTS
OVER 20 KT POSSIBLE UNTIL 00Z.
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST FRIDAY NIGHT FOR
COZ058-060.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM FRIDAY TO MIDNIGHT MST
FRIDAY NIGHT FOR COZ063-072>076-079>082-084.
UPDATE...KT
SHORT TERM...EHR
LONG TERM...EHR
AVIATION...PETERSEN
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