959
FXUS65 KPUB 060811 CCA
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
111 AM MST FRI MAR 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- MORE WIDESPREAD SNOW TODAY WITH CONVECTION WILD CARD GIVING
SOME EASTERN SLOPES ZONES THE POTENTIAL FOR SEEING UP TO 12
INCHES OF SNOW.
- LINGERING ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS INTO SATURDAY THEN DRYING OUT
AND WARMING UP AGAIN WITH A DIP IN TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY
BEHIND A DRY COLD FRONT.
- SPOTTY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS RETURNING FOR PORTIONS
OF THE AREA NEXT WEEK AS WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT INCREASES AGAIN.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1228 AM MST FRI MAR 6 2026
UPPER LOW IS TAKING SHAPE ACROSS UT TONIGHT WITH SHOWERS DEVELOPING
ACROSS WESTERN CO ALONG THE TIGHTENING BAROCLINIC ZONE/MID LEVEL
FRONT. SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO CLOSE OFF JUST NORTH OF THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION BEFORE SHIFTING EASTWARD ACROSS CO THEN LIFTING TO THE
NORTHEAST INTO WESTERN NE BY THIS EVENING. MORE ENERGY DROPS DOWN
THE BACK OF THE MEAN TROUGH OUT WEST WHICH CUTS OFF AND
RETROGRADES ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTHERN CA BY
SATURDAY MORNING. THIS KEEPS CO WITHIN THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS
THROUGH SATURDAY WHICH WILL PLAY A ROLE IN HOW LONG PRECIPITATION
LINGERS TONIGHT INTO SAT(MORE ON THIS A BIT LATER).
SNOW WILL SPREAD EASTWARD INTO THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE OVERNIGHT,
SPILLING INTO THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS, PIKES PEAK REGION, AND
ADJACENT VALLEYS TOWARDS 12Z. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL EXPAND EASTWARD
INTO THE I-25 CORRIDOR COUNTIES FRIDAY MORNING PUSHING EAST INTO
THE ADJACENT PLAINS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE PULLING OFF THE
NORTHEAST DURING THE EVENING. AN ORPHANED A CIRCULATION
CENTER/VORT MAX WITHIN THE UPPER TROF AXIS OVER SOUTHERN CO
LINGERS THROUGH TONIGHT SUGGESTING SNOW MAY PERSIST PAST MIDNIGHT
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND INTERIOR VALLEYS, ALBEIT WITH LOWER
SNOWFALL RATES.
AS THE UPPER LOW CLOSES OFF, HIGH RES MODELS SUGGEST A PERIOD OF
EAST TO NORTHEASTERLY H7 FLOW FUNNELING INTO THE THE WETS,
NORTHERN SANGRES AND UPPER ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY. WITH GOOD RUN
TO RUN CONTINUITY, AND THE PROBABILITIES OF GREATER THAN 6 INCHES
OF SNOW INCREASING IN BOTH HREF AND NBM TO OVER 70%, HAVE
INCREASED QPF AND SNOW TOTALS FOR THESE AREAS, NECESSITATING
EXPANSIONS OF THE CURRENT SUITE OF WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES.
THERE WILL BE EMBEDDED CONVECTION THAT COULD PUSH SOME SNOWFALL
TOTALS TO AROUND A FOOT OR MORE, WITH NBM AND HREF PLACING SOME
SPOTTY AREAS OF 40-50% OF EXCEEDANCE ALONG THE HIGHER EAST FACING
SLOPES OF THE WETS, NORTHERN SANGRES AND SOUTHERN SAWATCH RANGE
IN WESTERN CHAFFEE COUNTY. 12 INCHES IS THE HIGH END OF ADVISORY
CRITERIA OR LOW END OF WARNING CRITERIA FOR MOUNTAIN ZONES, AND
IT'S STILL CONCEIVABLE THAT SOME LOCALIZED UPGRADES TO WARNINGS WILL
BE NEEDED FOR THESE AREAS. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE STORM TRACK AND
PATTERN RECOGNITION, IT'S DIFFICULT TO HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
HITTING WIDESPREAD ENOUGH WARNING CRITERIA IN THESE ZONES WITHOUT
SEEING WHERE THE EMBEDDED CONVECTION SETS UP. MODELS/HREF
ENSEMBLES DO SHOW A COUPLE HUNDRED J/KG OF CAPE ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS, WHICH EXPANDS EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
PLAINS TODAY. HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF EMBEDDED CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS
STILL SEEMS FOCUSED ACROSS THE WET MOUNTAINS AND PUEBLO COUNTY
TODAY. SO THIS MAY BE THE AREA THAT GETS SOME HIGHER PRECIPITATION/SNOW
TOTALS, HOWEVER THIS FOCUS COULD SHIFT A BIT FARTHER SOUTH
DEPENDING ON THE POSITION OF THE FRONT IN THE AFTERNOON AS IT LAYS
UP SOMEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 IN THE AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE, THIS DOES LOOK LIKE A COLDER SYSTEM WITH PTYPES
STARTING OUT AS SNOW ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS/VALLEYS AND THE PIKES
PEAK REGION WITH THE INITIAL ONSET OF PRECIPITATION, AND STAYING
ALL SNOW THROUGH THE ENTIRE EVENT. EVEN IN PUEBLO, A RAIN/SNOW MIX
OR EVEN A SWITCH OVER TO SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION RATES AS SNOW LEVELS WAVER DOWN TO 4500 FEET OR
EVEN LOWER AT TIMES. SNOWFALL WILL NOT LIKELY STICK AROUND THOUGH
DUE TO WARM SURFACE TEMPERATURES, SO DON'T THINK SOUTHERN EL PASO
OR PUEBLO COUNTIES WILL NEED HIGHLIGHTS, THOUGH THERE WILL BE THE
USUAL LOCAL VARIABILITY NEAREST THE MOUNTAINS. OF FURTHER NOTE,
SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA WILL BE DRY SLOTTED
GIVEN THE STORM TRACK, SO THE SOUTHERN SAN LUIS VALLEY AND
SOUTHEAST ZONES LIKE BACA COUNTY MAY NOT PICK UP MUCH/IF ANY
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE EVENT. THESE AREAS ARE WHERE THE WARMER
TEMPERATURES WILL RESIDE TODAY, ESPECIALLY BACA COUNTY WHERE
HIGHS MAY TOP OUT NEAR 60 WHILE THE MAJORITY OF THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS STAY IN THE 40S.
FOR TONIGHT, HIGH RES MODELS LINGER PRECIPITATION ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL CO WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS EVEN AS THE MAIN FORCING
FROM THE NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM PULLS OFF TO THE EAST. THIS APPEARS
TO BE TIED TO THE ORPHANED CIRCULATION/VORT CENTER WHICH GETS
SHEARED WESTWARD WITHIN THE TROUGH AXIS. BUMPED UP POPS ACCORDINGLY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS/INTERIOR VALLEYS INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. WE MAY NEED TO CONSIDER SOME ADVISORY EXTENSIONS IN TIME,
BUT WILL LET LATER SHIFTS ASSESS THIS NEED WITH FUTURE MODEL RUNS.
SNOWFALL INTENSITIES SHOULD BE ON THE DECLINE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AS THE FLOW ALOFT WEAKENS AND THE SYNOPTIC LIFT DECREASES.
STUCK CLOSE TO NBM LOWS OVERNIGHT GIVEN THE PERSISTENCE OF SOME
CLOUD COVER.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1228 AM MST FRI MAR 6 2026
LINGERING MOISTURE WITHIN THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL KEEP SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS ON SATURDAY DUE TO LINGERING
INSTABILITY WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS. HOWEVER, MOST OF THE AREA
WILL DRY OUT AND WARM UP. WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT SO NO FIRE
WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS ARE EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES REBOUND NICELY
FOR SUNDAY WITH READINGS BACK INTO THE 60S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS
THE PLAINS, 50S FOR THE VALLEYS AND 30S AND 40S FOR THE
MOUNTAINS. DRIER AIR PUSHING IN FROM THE NORTH SHOULD KEEP ALL
AREAS DRY AND WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT.
WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT INCREASES NEXT WEEK AS THE OLD CUT
OFF LOW OFF THE COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA EVENTUALLY PUSHES
EASTWARD WELL TO THE SOUTH OF CO. MAIN AFFECT FOR SOUTHERN CO
WILL BE INCREASING WINDS AND WARM TEMPERATURES AS WE COME UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF THE NORTHERN STREAM FLOW. THERE WILL BE A
BRIEF COOL DOWN BEHIND A COLD FRONT FOR WEDNESDAY AS THE FLOW
ALOFT BUCKLES A BIT SOUTHWARD. SPOTTY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS MAY MAKE RETURN APPEARANCES ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR
AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS NEXT WEEK AS LEE TROUGHING
RETURNS. TEMPERATURES WILL STAY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD. -KT
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1027 PM MST THU MAR 5 2026
AT KALS, VFR OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY FRI MORNING, THEN OCCASIONAL
MVFR/BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY FRI AS WAVES OF SNOW
SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH THE SAN LUIS VALLEY. BEST CHANCE OF IFR
CONDITIONS AND HEAVIER PRECIP LOOK TO BE IN THE 21Z-03Z TIME
PERIOD. SLOW IMPROVEMENT AFTER 03Z FRI EVENING AS SHOWERS TAPER
OFF AND CIGS BEGIN TO LIFT.
AT KCOS/KPUB, VFR OVERNIGHT, WITH A COLD FRONT BRINGING GUSTY
NORTH WINDS OF 20-30 KTS AFTER 06Z-08Z. VCSH STARTING AROUND
14Z AS PRECIP DEVELOPS, WITH PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR THROUGH MUCH
OF THE DAY AS RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH THE REGION.
GREATEST CHANCE FOR IFR CONDITIONS AND HEAVIER PRECIP WILL BE
ROUGHLY 19Z-01Z, WITH SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS AFTER 03Z AS
SHOWERS TAPER OFF AND CIGS SLOWLY RISE. STRONG NORTH WINDS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY INTO THE EVENING, WITH THE
HIGHEST GUSTS (30KTS) AT KCOS.
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST TONIGHT FOR COZ058-
060-068.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST TONIGHT FOR COZ059-
061>063.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT MST
TONIGHT FOR COZ072>082-084.
SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...KT
AVIATION...PETERSEN
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