248
FXUS65 KPUB 062320
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
420 PM MST FRI MAR 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN AND SNOW CHANCES CONTINUE TODAY, TAPERING OFF THROUGH
THIS EVENING. TRAVEL IMPACTS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE EVENING
COMMUTE, ESPECIALLY OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE!
- SATURDAY'S FORECAST BRINGS NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRYING
CONDITIONS, WITH MINIMAL WINDS AND LOTS OF SUNSHINE.
- A WARMING A DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK, ALONG WITH THE RETURN OF CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1146 AM MST FRI MAR 6 2026
REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT..
AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO PUSH OVERHEAD, INSTABILITY REACHES A PEAK
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THIS WILL BE THE MOST LIKELY WINDOW FOR
CONVECTIVE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY EVEN A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER.
MODELS INDICATE THE MOST LIKELY AREAS FOR THIS TYPE OF ACTIVITY WILL
BE FREMONT, PUEBLO, SOUTHERN EL PASO, CROWLEY, AND OTERO COUNTIES,
ALONG WITH THE WET MOUNTAINS AND THE WET MOUNTAIN VALLEY. IN THESE
AREAS, LOCALLY HIGHER PRECIP AMOUNTS MAY BE POSSIBLE. HIGHLIGHT-WISE
THOUGH, HAVE DECIDED TO HOLD STEADY WITH ADVISORIES FOR ALL AREAS.
THOUGH SOME AREAS MAY SEE HIGHER SNOW AMOUNTS, THERE IS ALSO OF
MELTING GOING ON AS WELL, WHICH MAY HELP TO MINIMIZE IMPACTS IN SOME
AREAS THAT MAY BE BORDERLINE ON HITTING WARNING CRITERIA BRIEFLY.
OTHER THAN THESE AREAS POSSIBLY ACHIEVING HIGHER PRECIP AMOUNTS,
EVENT TOTAL TOTAL FORECAST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS HAVE LARGELY REMAINED
UNCHANGED.
BLOWING SNOW WILL BE ANOTHER FACTOR TO CONSIDER FOR THE EVENING
COMMUTE, ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY. A SECONDARY
NORTHERLY PUSH OF GUSTY WINDS COMES THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON,
WHICH WILL CAUSE GUSTY WINDS IN NORTHERN AND EASTERN EL PASO. AS
TEMPERATURES DIP TOWARDS THE EVENING RUSH HOUR, TRAVEL CONDITIONS
MAY GET DICEY OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE. THIS SECOND PUSH OF NORTHERLY
WINDS DOES EVENTUALLY HELP TO SHUT DOWN PRECIP CHANCES IN SOUTHERN
EL PASO AND PUEBLO COUNTIES THOUGH AS DRY DOWNSLOPING TAKES OVER. IN
GENERAL, SNOW COMES TO AN END FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGHOUT THE
EVENING HOURS, WITH ONLY THE EASTERN SANGRES AND THE WETS KEEPING
SNOWFALL CHANCES THROUGHOUT MIDNIGHT. ALL AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
DRY BY THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF SATURDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT
LOOK TO REMAIN FAIRLY CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS, WITH TEMPERATURES
FALLING INTO THE TEENS AND 20S ACROSS OUR PLAINS AND MOUNTAIN
VALLEYS.
TOMORROW..
SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY QUIET TRANSITION SORT OF DAY, WITH NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND SUNNY SKIES FOR MOST AREAS. LOCATIONS WITH
SNOW COVER ON THE GROUND MAY KEEP DAYTIME HIGHS SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN
CURRENTLY FORECAST. WITH ALL THE MELTING CURRENTLY GOING ON ACROSS
THE AREA, LOTS OF MELTING AND TEMPERATURE RECOVERY IS EXPECTED FOR
TOMORROW AS WELL. DESPITE TOMORROW'S TEMPERATURES BEING "NEAR
NORMAL," WE WILL PROBABLY FEEL QUITE COOL CONSIDERING HOW MUCH
WARMER THAN NORMAL WE HAVE BEEN OF LATE. HIGHS LOOK TO REMAIN IN THE
MID TO UPPER 40S FOR MOUNTAIN VALLEYS AND THE PIKES PEAK REGION,
WITH 50S FOR OUR PLAINS. WINDS WILL BE WEAK BY COLORADO STANDARDS,
WITH WESTERLY GUSTS LOOKING TO STAY AROUND 25 MPH OR LESS OVER OUR
HIGHER PEAKS, AND EVEN LESSER WINDS ELSEWHERE.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1146 AM MST FRI MAR 6 2026
THE LONG TERM FORECAST IS A BIT MESSIER, BUT IN GENERAL COLORADO
LOOKS TO REMAIN IN WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. MODELS BRING A
LOW ONSHORE OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEK, KEEPING ITS IMPACTS MAINLY SOUTH OF COLORADO. AT THE SAME
TIME, A STRONG JET PASSES/PERSISTS TO OUR NORTH. WHILE REMAIN ON THE
FRINGES OF ITS STRONGEST INFLUENCE, INCREASED WEST WINDS DO LOOK TO
RETURN FOR SUNDAY THROUGH MID-WEEK, ALONG WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND THE RETURN OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
HIGHS LOOK TO BE BACK INTO THE 60S AND 70S ON THE PLAINS. A COLD
FRONT LOOKS POSSIBLE BY WEDNESDAY, BUT RAIN AND SNOW CHANCES LOOK
MINIMAL WITH ITS PASSING. IF TRENDS CONTINUE, WE'LL DRY BACK OUT AND
WARM BACK UP BY LATE NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 413 PM MST FRI MAR 6 2026
MAIN CONCERN FOR THE 3 TAF SITES WILL BE SOME PASSING RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS THIS EVENING, ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW CIGS.
HOWEVER BY THE MORNING HOURS SKIES SHOULD CLEAR WITH VFR
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING. THE ONLY CONCERN I HAVE IS IF SKIES DO
CLEAR AND THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STILL IN THE REGION THAT WE MAY
SEE SOME FOG DEVELOPING IN PLACES. WILL PASS THIS ONTO ONCOMING
SHIFTS SO THEY CAN ADJUST FORECAST AS NEEDED.
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST TONIGHT FOR
COZ058>063-068-072>082-084.
SHORT TERM...EHR
LONG TERM...EHR
AVIATION...HODANISH
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