626
FXUS65 KPUB 072325
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
425 PM MST SAT MAR 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WARMING AND DRYING TREND RETURNS TO SE COLORADO. FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS INCREASE SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
- CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION TUE AND TUE NIGHT FOR SOUTHERN
AND EASTERN AREAS.
- INCREASING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS MID TO LATE WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1202 PM MST SAT MAR 7 2026
WEAK WEST WINDS PERSIST ALOFT TODAY, AS SOUTHERN CO SITS BETWEEN A
PASSING TROUGH TO THE NE AND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF TO THE SW.
COOL AND DRY THE REST OF THE DAY, WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS.
FLOW ALOFT WEAKENS FURTHER ON SUNDAY, THOUGH SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS WILL ASSIST IN DRASTICALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
REGION. THE EASTERN PLAINS WILL BE IN THE MID 60S-70S, WHILE THE
HIGH VALLEYS REMAIN IN THE MID-HIGH 50S. A FEW HOURS OF SPOTTY
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON, MAINLY OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN I-25 CORRIDOR. WHILE
FLOW ALOFT IS FAIRLY WEAK AND DISORGANIZED, THE PRESENCE OF BOTH
DOWNSLOPING AND GAP FLOW WINDS, COUPLED WITH THE EXPECTED JUMP IN
TEMPERATURES, WAS ENOUGH TO WARRANT A RED FLAG WARNING FOR HUERFANO
AND WESTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTIES.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1202 PM MST SAT MAR 7 2026
FIRE RISK PICKS UP ON MONDAY AS FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF THE INCOMING
LOW. EXPECTING SEVERAL HOURS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
DURING THE AFTERNOON, MAINLY CENTERED ON GAP FLOW AREAS ALONG I-25
AS WELL AS THE SOUTHERN SAN LUIS VALLEY. HAVE HOISTED A FIRE WEATHER
WATCH FOR THESE AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE EVEN WARMER, WITH
HIGHS RANGING FROM THE 60S OVER THE VALLEYS TO HIGH-70S OVER THE
PLAINS. SOME AREAS CLOSER TO THE CO/KS BORDER ARE EXPECTED TO EXCEED
80 DEGREES.
CUTOFF LOW FINALLY DRIFTS CLOSER TO CO ON TUESDAY. CURRENTLY NOT
EXPECTING IT TO ARRIVE UNTIL EVENING, SO HIGH TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT
THE SAME AS ON MONDAY. WITH RH INCREASING WITH THE INCOMING
MOISTURE, FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE LOWER, THOUGH GAP FLOW AREAS
WILL STILL BE A CONCERN FOR AN HOUR OR TWO IN THE AFTERNOON. THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF THE LOW LOOKS TO MAKE ITS WAY OVER THE CO/NM BORDER
LATE IN THE DAY, BRINGING A COLD FRONT SOUTH OVER THE PLAINS TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BRING IN COOLER TEMPERATURES, ALONG
WITH SOME LIGHT, SCATTERED PRECIPITATION, THOUGH MAINLY OVER THE
SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS AND THE PIKES PEAK REGION. EXPECT A NOTICEABLE
COOLDOWN FOR WEDNESDAY, FOLLOWED BY WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS
RETURNING, ALONG WITH FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS, THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS
WINDS ALOFT INCREASE.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 424 PM MST SAT MAR 7 2026
KCOS, KPUB, AND KALS: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT, LESS THAN 10 KNOTS,
THROUGH MUCH OF THIS TAF PERIOD FOR ALL THREE SITES. KPUB MAY HAVE
GUSTY WINDS TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS DEEPER DIURNAL MIXING DEVELOPS.
OTHERWISE, DRY CONDITIONS WITH CLEAR SKIES IS ANTICIPATED.
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING FOR COZ224.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 7 PM MST SUNDAY FOR COZ229-230.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
FOR COZ229-230.
SHORT TERM...GARBEROGLIO
LONG TERM...GARBEROGLIO
AVIATION...SIMCOE
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