240
FXUS65 KPUB 081716
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1116 AM MDT SUN MAR 8 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SPOTTY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS RETURN FOR TODAY, THEN
MORE WIDESPREAD FOR MONDAY, AS DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS
PERSIST.
- CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION AND EVEN SOME THUNDER
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS
AND PLAINS.
- INCREASING FIRE DANGER THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1140 PM MST SAT MAR 7 2026
CURRENTLY...COLORADO REMAINS SITUATED BETWEEN AN UPPER LOW OFF THE
COAST OF THE CALIFORNIA BAJA, AND AN UPPER SHORTWAVE PUSHING EAST
ACROSS THE CENTRAL US. NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WAS IN PLACE
ACROSS THE STATE, WITH SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS BEGINNING TO
FILTER INTO THE ROCKY MT REGION. TEMPS AS OF MIDNIGHT HAVE COOLED
INTO THE 30S ACROSS THE PLAINS, AND 20S FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS, BUT
OVERNIGHT LOW READINGS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING SHOULD DIP INTO THE 20S
FOR THE PLAINS AND UPPER ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY, AND TEENS FOR THE
SAN LUIS VALLEY.
TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE UPPER LOW TO OUR SOUTHWEST WILL REMAIN
SOMEWHAT STATIONARY OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS, WHILE THE FLOW ALOFT
ACROSS COLORADO BECOMES MORE WESTERLY WITH A GRADUAL TIGHTENING OF
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. INCREASING DOWNSLOPE FLOW TODAY WILL HELP
BOOST AFTERNOON HIGHS INTO THE 60S AND 70S FOR THE EASTERN PLAINS,
AND 50S TO NEAR 60F FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS. WHILE WESTERLY WINDS WILL
BE INCREASING TODAY, THE STRONGEST POTENTIAL GUSTS WILL BE FOUND IN
THOSE GAP FLOW AREAS ALONG THE SOUTHERN I-25 CORRIDOR CLOSER TO THE
NEW MEXICO STATE LINE. THEREFORE, CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE ANTICIPATED ACROSS HUERFANO AND WESTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTIES THIS
AFTERNOON. SPOTTY CONDITIONS MAY CROP UP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE SAN LUIS VALLEY AS WELL AS OTHER PORTIONS OF THE
EASTERN PLAINS, BUT FEEL THAT THOSE CASES WILL NOT LAST LONG ENOUGH
OR COVER ENOUGH GROUND TO WARRANT ANY EXPANSION TO THE EXISTING
WARNING. TONIGHT PLAN ON MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES, AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE TEENS TO MID 20S FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS, AND 30S ACROSS THE
PLAINS.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1140 PM MST SAT MAR 7 2026
MONDAY...THE PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM STARTS TO PUSH ONSHORE ON
MONDAY, FOLLOWING THE SOUTHERN US BORDER AND REACHING THE SOUTHERN
AZ BORDER THROUGH MON NIGHT. MEANWHILE, INCREASING WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND ROCKY MT REGIONS WILL RESULT IN
GREATER DOWNSLOPE FLOW FOR THE FORECAST AREA, AND POTENTIALLY A MORE
WIDESPREAD FIRE WEATHER EVENT. HIGH TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO CLIMB INTO
THE 60S FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS, AND 70S TO AROUND 80F FOR THE PLAINS.
COMBINED WITH A RATHER LARGE AREA OF MINIMUM RH LEVELS OF 5 TO 15
PERCENT, DECIDED TO EXPAND THE ONGOING FIRE WEATHER WATCH TO INCLUDE
FREMONT, PUEBLO AND SOUTHERN EL PASO COUNTIES. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
LIKELY BE A BIT MORE MILD AS WELL WITH THE INCREASED WINDS, WITH 20S
TO AROUND 30F FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS, AND 30S TO LOWER 40S FOR THE
PLAINS.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...TUESDAY IS LOOKING TO BE A SOMEWHAT ACTIVE
DAY AS THE UPPER LOW TO OUR SOUTHWEST STARTS TO PICK UP SPEED AND
EJECT TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS NM AND TOWARDS THE OK AND TX
PANHANDLES THROUGH THE DAY. IT WILL ALL COME DOWN TO TIMING, BUT AT
THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
MTS AND PLAINS BY MIDDAY, THEN SPREAD ACROSS ALL OF THE EASTERN
PLAINS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH AN ADDED POTENTIAL FOR SOME
THUNDER. AGAIN, TIMING WILL MEAN EVERYTHING, DICTATING CONVECTION
STRENGTH AND AREAL COVERAGE. SOME MODELS ARE INDICATING ALL THE CAPE
WILL BE EAST OF CO, BUT THE DIFFERENCE COMES DOWN TO AROUND 50
MILES, SO THE SOUTHEAST CORNER STILL HAS A DECENT SHOT. IT WILL
STILL BE A VERY WARM DAY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA, CONSIDERING A WARMER
START, BUT A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE PALMER
DIVIDE DURING THE EVENING, ALLOWING PRECIP TO LINGER INTO THE NIGHT.
ON WEDNESDAY, POST-FRONTAL, CONDITIONS DRY OUT BUT AFTERNOON HIGHS
WILL BE MUCH MORE SEASONAL WITH 50S FOR MOST AREAS, AND NEARING 60F
FOR THE SAN LUIS VALLEY. ONE THING TO KEEP AN EYE ON WILL BE THE
SPEED OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT TUE EVE. A QUICKER
PROGRESSION WILL HAVE AN EFFECT ON MAX TEMPS, BUT COULD INCREASE
BULK SHEAR DURING THE PRIME CONVECTION WINDOW.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A VERY FAMILIAR PATTERN THEN SETTLES BACK
IN STARTING THURSDAY AND LASTING INTO THE WEEKEND. BRISK WEST TO
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING A RETURN OF DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES, LEADING TO INCREASED FIRE DANGER ONCE AGAIN.
THE NBM BRINGS ISOLATED MOISTURE BACK TO THE CENTRAL MTS STARTING
SAT EVENING BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME WITH THAT SOLUTION.
MOORE
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1112 AM MDT SUN MAR 8 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT ALL 3
TAF SITES, KPUB, KALS AND KCOS. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
DIURNALLY DRIVEN.
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING FOR COZ222-224-227-228.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ229-230.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
FOR COZ229-230.
SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...HODANISH/MW
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