143
FXUS65 KPUB 091720
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1120 AM MDT MON MAR 9 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN FOR THE SAN LUIS
VALLEY, PORTIONS OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR, AND FREMONT AND CROWLEY
COUNTIES TODAY. SPOTTY HIGH FIRE DANGER RETURNS FOR FREMONT COUNTY
TUESDAY.
- CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION AND THUNDER TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING ACROSS THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS.
- INCREASING FIRE DANGER RETURNS STARTING THURSDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1232 AM MDT MON MAR 9 2026
CURRENTLY...AN UPPER LOW SITS OFF THE COAST OF THE CALIFORNIA BAJA
TONIGHT, AS WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT BEGINS TO STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE
GREAT BASIN AND ROCKY MT REGION. SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA, THEN THE INCREASING WESTERLY FLOW HAS HELPED KEEP
TEMPS SOMEWHAT MILD SO FAR. BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING, MIN TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE 30S FOR MOST LOCATIONS, WHILE THE SAN LUIS
VALLEY SHOULD COOL INTO THE 20S TO UPPER TEENS.
TODAY AND TONIGHT...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE PACIFIC UPPER LOW
FINALLY STARTING TO PUSH ONSHORE TODAY, NEARING THE SOUTHERN AZ
BORDER BY LATE TONIGHT. HOWEVER, THE TREND IS PLACING THE LOW CENTER
SLIGHTLY MORE SOUTH, WHICH MAY HAVE RAMIFICATIONS FOR TUE.
REGARDLESS, FORECAST FOR TODAY STILL LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK AND
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT INCREASES, WHICH IN TURN INCREASES DOWNSLOPE
FLOW AND HELPS BOOST TEMPS TODAY WELL INTO THE 70S TO AROUND 80F FOR
THE PLAINS, AND 60S FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS. THIS IS AROUND 5 DEGREES
WARMER THAN HIGH TEMPS REALIZED ON SUNDAY. VERY DRY CONDITIONS
PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA, WITH MINIMUM RH LEVELS OF 5 TO 15 PERCENT
FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE PLAINS AND THE SAN LUIS VALLEY, HENCE THE
RED FLAG WARNING THAT REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA
TODAY FROM 10 AM THROUGH 7 PM. PLEASE REFRAIN FROM ANY OUTDOOR
ACTIVITIES THAT COULD SPARK A FIRE TODAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT ARE
EXPECTED TO BE MORE MILD WITH THE INCREASED WINDS, WITH 20S TO
AROUND 30F FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS, AND 30S TO AROUND 40F FOR THE
PLAINS.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1232 AM MDT MON MAR 9 2026
TUESDAY...TUESDAY STILL LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE A BUSY DAY, BUT MAYBE
A LITTLE LESS NOW? THIS IS DUE TO MODELS SHOWING A SLIGHTLY MORE
SOUTHERN TRACK FOR THE UPPER LOW AS IT OPENS UP ACROSS NEW MEXICO
AND EJECTS TO THE NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE TX PANHANDLE. LIGHT PRECIP
IS STILL EXPECTED TO BEGIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA LATE TUE MORNING, WITH UP TO 2 INCHES OF NEW SNOW FOR
THE PEAKS OF THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN MTS, THEN SCATTERED
SHOWERS SPREADING ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. HOWEVER, QPF WITH THIS SYSTEM IS NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE,
AND BECAUSE OF THE MORE SOUTHERN TRACK, THE CHANCE FOR THUNDER LOOKS
TO BE MORE RESTRICTED TO PERHAPS BACA COUNTY AND AREAS EAST OF THE
BORDER. A SURFACE COLD FRONT IS STILL SLATED TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS
THE PALMER DIVIDE DURING THE EVENING, BUT GIVEN THE EXPECTED WARM
START AND A SLIGHTLY DELAYED FRONTAL PASSAGE, FORECAST HIGH TEMPS
WILL STILL BE REALLY WARM, NOT SHOWING MUCH CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS
DAY. THE ONLY AREA WITH A HIGH PROBABILITY FOR SOME STRONGER GUSTY
WINDS LOOKS LIKE THE GAP FLOW AREA ACROSS FREMONT COUNTY AND PUSHING
INTO FAR WESTERN PUEBLO COUNTY, SO WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH FOR FREMONT COUNTY, FIRE ZONE 222, FOR THE AFTERNOON.
WEDNESDAY...A COOLER, POST-FRONTAL DAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH-
CENTRAL CO, WITH BRISK NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE PLAINS
THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS
SHOULD HAVE MOVED ON OUT OF THE AREA BY DAYBREAK, SO PLAN ON MUCH
MORE SEASONAL TEMPS WITH 50S FOR MOST AREAS, AND NEARING 60F FOR THE
SAN LUIS VALLEY.
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE FORECAST AREA FALLS BACK INTO THE
THICK OF HIGH FIRE DANGER CONCERNS, AS STEADY WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT KEEPS DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE, WITH STEADILY WARMING TEMPS.
THE MODEL BLEND INDICATES TEMPS CLIMBING BACK UP INTO THE 70S TO
AROUND 80F FOR THE PLAINS, AND NEARING 70F FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS OVER
THE WEEKEND, SO MORE FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS ARE PROBABLE. LONG
RANGE MODELS DO SHOW AN UPPER SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE ROCKIES LATE
SATURDAY, PERHAPS BRINGING SOME ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY TO THE
HIGHER TERRAIN FOR SUNDAY. MOORE
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1118 AM MDT MON MAR 9 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT ALL 3 TAF
SITES, KPUB, KALS AND KCOS.
GUSTY WEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AT ALL OF THE TAF SITES
BY MID AFTERNOON AND REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH ABOUT SUNSET. DIURNAL
FLOW WILL DEVELOP THEREAFTER.
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ222-224-
227-228-231.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING FOR COZ222.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ229-230.
SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...HODANISH
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