753
FXUS65 KPUB 092333
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
533 PM MDT MON MAR 9 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE
AREA EVERY DAY THIS WEEK THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY.
- CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION AND THUNDER TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1240 PM MDT MON MAR 9 2026
BREEZY WEST WINDS CONTINUE ALOFT, WITH A STRONGER JET TO OUR NORTH
AND A CUTOFF LOW SLOWLY MOVING TO OUR SOUTH. GUSTY SURFACE WINDS
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY, WITH TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE
AVERAGE AND DRY RH VALUES. RED FLAG WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT THROUGH
7PM THIS EVENING.
TONIGHT, WINDS WEAKEN SLIGHTLY BUT RETAIN THEIR WESTERLY COMPONENT.
AS A RESULT, OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE ON THE WARM SIDE OVER THE
PLAINS, MAINLY IN THE 30S TO LOW-40S, WHILE THE VALLEYS SINK INTO
THE 20S. MEANWHILE, RH RECOVERY WILL BE ON THE LOW SIDE, WITH SOME
AREAS LEE OF THE TERRAIN ONLY REACHING 40-50 PERCENT.
DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ON TUESDAY, WITH TEMPERATURES
IN THE 60S-70S OVER MOST OF OUR CWA. BREEZY WEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE AREA INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON, AND A FEW HOURS OF SPOTTY
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF
FREMONT COUNTY, LARGELY DUE TO GAP FLOW. CONDITIONS ARE MARGINAL,
BUT GIVEN THE PERSISTENCE OF CONDITIONS THE LAST FEW DAYS, HAVE
UPGRADED TO A RED FLAG FOR THAT AREA. FUELS HAVE CONTINUED TO DRY,
AND WITH THE GAP FLOW ENHANCEMENTS CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
RAPID FIRE SPREAD AND INTENSIFICATION. LATER IN THE DAY, THE CUTOFF
LOW TO OUR SOUTH WILL MOVE JUST SOUTH OF OUR REGION, ALLOWING FOR
THE CHANCE FOR LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR CWA. THAT
BEING SAID, MODEL TRENDS HAVE CONTINUED SHOVING THE LOW FURTHER
SOUTH, AND QPF HAS CONTINUED TO TREND DOWN. CURRENTLY ONLY EXPECTING
A FEW ISOLATED, POSSIBLY SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHERN SANGRES
AND OTHER AREAS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50. THE PASSING LOW WILL BRING A
DRY COLD FRONT DOWN OVER THE PLAINS LATE IN THE DAY INTO TUESDAY
EVENING.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1240 PM MDT MON MAR 9 2026
WEDNESDAY...STILL ON TRACK FOR A COOLER, POST-FRONTAL DAY ON WEDS.
HIGH TEMPS SHOULD ONLY BE IN THE 50S-60S, WITH BREEZY WINDS AND
GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE SAN LUIS VALLEY
FOR A FEW HOURS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN THE AFTERNOON.
THURSDAY ONWARDS...NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST AT THIS
TIME. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST, WITH
BREEZY NORTHWEST FLOW SETTLING IN OVER OUR REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM WELL ABOVE AVERAGE ONCE AGAIN, AND CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY.
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL GREATLY INCREASE OVER THE REGION STARTING
ON THURSDAY. LONG-RANGE MODELS DO HINT AT A SHORTWAVE PASSING BY
LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY, WHICH COULD BRING US ANOTHER COLD FRONT
WITH SOME ISOLATED PRECIP CHANCES.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 528 PM MDT MON MAR 9 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH INCREASING
HIGH CLOUDINESS ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE TERMINALS JUST BEYOND THE 24 HR VALID TAF PERIOD.
GUSTY WEST WINDS THIS EVENING WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE AT ALL
THREE TERMINALS BETWEEN 02-03Z, THOUGH ENHANCED WESTERLY WINDS
WILL CONTINUE NEAR THE MOUNTAINS...AFFECTING KPUB WITH STEADY
WEST WINDS AROUND 10KTS OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE
EAST AT KCOS AROUND 10 KTS AROUND 16Z BEFORE SHIFTING FROM THE
NORTHWEST WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KTS AROUND 22-23Z. KPUB AND
KALS WILL SEE INCREASING WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS TO
AROUND 25 KTS IN THE AFTERNOON. -KT
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ222-224-
227>231.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 7 PM MDT TUESDAY FOR COZ222.
SHORT TERM...GARBEROGLIO
LONG TERM...GARBEROGLIO
AVIATION...KT
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