442
FXUS65 KPUB 101725
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
1125 AM MDT TUE MAR 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS FREMONT
COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH 7 PM.
- ISOLATED LIGHT PRECIPITATION AND THUNDER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHEAST PLAINS.
- WIDESPREAD HIGH FIRE DANGER POSSIBLE THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1231 AM MDT TUE MAR 10 2026
CURRENTLY...UPPER PACIFIC LOW WAS LOCATED OVER THE CALIFORNIA BAJA
LATE MONDAY NIGHT, SLOWLY MOVING EAST, WHILE AN UPPER SHORTWAVE WAS
PUSHING EAST ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW. SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLEAR, BUT
BRISK WESTERLY FLOW IN SPOTS HAS KEPT TEMPS RATHER MILD SO FAR AS OF
11 PM WITH 40S AND 50S ACROSS THE PLAINS, AND UPPER 30S TO MID 40S
FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS. WINDS SHOULD DECOUPLE AND LIGHTEN OVERNIGHT,
WITH EXPECTED MINIMUM TEMPS TUE MORN IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40F FOR
THE PLAINS, AND 20S AND 30S FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS.
TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE UPPER LOW WILL TRACK EAST ALONG THE SOUTHERN
US BORDER TONIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY TUE, BUT DOES NOT OPEN UP AND EJECT
TO THE EAST UNTIL IT HITS SOUTH CENTRAL NM. THIS TRACK IS EVEN
FURTHER SOUTH THAN SOLUTIONS JUST 24 HRS AGO, AND KEEPS MUCH OF THE
ENERGY AND ACTIVITY JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THERE
WILL STILL BE SOME ISOLATED SNOW FOR THE SOUTHERN MTS, WITH MINIMAL
AMOUNTS, AND ISOLATED SHOWERS TRACKING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH ONE OR TWO STORMS POSSIBLE - BUT
THIS LATEST SOLUTION IS DISAPPOINTING. ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP
WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 TO 50 MPH,
WITH THE GREATEST CHANCE ACROSS BACA AND PROWERS COUNTIES.
MEANWHILE, GUSTY WEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL COMBINE WITH
CONTINUING DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS TO PRODUCE HIGH FIRE DANGER
FOR FREMONT COUNTY, WHERE A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM
NOON UNTIL 7 PM. THERE MAY BE SOME SPOTTY CRITICAL CONDITIONS
FOR FAR WESTERN PUEBLO COUNTY AND SOUTHERN EL PASO COUNTY THIS
AFTERNOON AS WELL, BUT AREAL COVERAGE DID NOT LOOK TO BE BROAD
ENOUGH TO WARRANT ANY HIGHLIGHT FOR THOSE AREAS.
A SURFACE COLD FRONT IS STILL SLATED TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE PALMER
DIVIDE DURING THE EVENING, WITH THE INITIAL FRONTAL PASSAGE BETWEEN
6 AND 9 PM, THEN THE STRONGER NORTHERLY WINDS WITH THE TRUE COLDER
AIR THEN PUSHING THROUGH DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
AS FOR TEMPS, GIVEN A WARMER START AND A MID-EVENING FRONTAL
PASSAGE, PLAN ON HIGHS TODAY IN THE 60S FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS, AND
70S TO AROUND 80F FOR THE PLAINS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL COOL INTO THE
20S FOR THE SAN LUIS VALLEY, AND UPPER 20S TO MID 30S FOR THE PLAINS
AND THE UPPER ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1231 AM MDT TUE MAR 10 2026
WEDNESDAY...A COOLER, POST-FRONTAL DAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH-
CENTRAL CO, WITH BRISK NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE PLAINS
THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY. PLAN ON MUCH MORE
SEASONAL TEMPS WITH UPPER 40S TO MID 50S FOR MOST AREAS, AND NEARING
60F FOR THE SAN LUIS VALLEY. IN FACT, THE SAN LUIS VALLEY WILL NOT
BE AFFECTED AS MUCH BY THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE, SO CONTINUED WARM AND
DRY CONDITIONS THERE WILL LEAD TO SOME SPOTTY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS. NO HIGHLIGHTS ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE FORECAST AREA FALLS BACK INTO THE
THICK OF HIGH FIRE DANGER CONCERNS, AS STEADY WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT KEEPS DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE, WITH STEADILY WARMING TEMPS.
THE MODEL BLEND INDICATES TEMPS CLIMBING BACK UP INTO THE 70S TO
LOWER 80S FOR THE PLAINS, AND NEARING 70F FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS OVER
THE WEEKEND, SO MORE FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS ARE PROBABLE.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE AN UPPER SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE ROCKIES SATURDAY, BRINGING
SOME SHOWERS TO THE CENTRAL MTS AND PALMER DIVIDE STARTING SAT
EVENING, AS WELL AS DROPPING A COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS
SAT NIGHT. HIGH TEMPS FOR SUNDAY ARE FORECAST TO BE 25 TO 30 DEGREES
COLDER THAN THOSE REALIZED ON SATURDAY, WITH CONTINUED COOL BUT
SEASONAL TEMPS ON MONDAY. SOMETHING TO WATCH FOR AND BE AWARE OF.
MOORE
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1123 AM MDT TUE MAR 10 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT ALL 3 TAF
SITES, KPUB, KALS AND KCOS. MAIN CONCERN THIS FCST PERIOD WILL BE A
COLD FRONT WHICH WILL CROSS THE KPUB/KCOS REGION AROUND THE 05 UTC
TIME FRAME LATER THIS EVENING. PREFRONTAL WNW FLOW WILL BE GUSTY LATER
THIS AFTERNOON UNTIL FROPA, THEN EXPECT NNE GUSTY WINDS TO 30+
KTS FOR 2-3 HOURS, THEN DECREASING WINDS THEREAFTER.
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ222.
SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...WFO PUEBLO
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